By Brendan Cole
Munster or Leinster: who has it harder? The former need to beat Llanelli home and away over the next two games, preferably with bonus points, and then either get a result in Clermont or beat Wasps at home, or do both to go through.
The latter must get ten points against Edinburgh, and then beat Toulouse at home and possibly Leicester away to be sure of their passage, depending on other results.
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The bookies say Leinster have the harder task by a fair margin, but the evidence of last week’s showdown between the two at Musgrave Park is that the ‘Ladyboys’ have more about them at the moment, while Munster seem to have lost their way a small bit.
For a team used to dominating their own back yard, defeat to Leinster is worrying. While Leinster are a better team than before, from a Munster perspective, defeats to their main Irish rivals just shouldn’t happen, especially at home.
Also worrying was the manner of the loss. Teams have their own way of playing badly: Leinster, for example, tend to overplay the ball, avoid contact and make bad decisions when the going gets tough. But Munster’s bad displays see them tend to overdo another sort of nonsense, most of which could be filed under the heading ‘niggle’.
‘Niggle’ encompasses the ‘sledging’, rowing, loose feet, arguing and silly penalties they can sometimes get caught up with. Of course, a certain amount of it goes on when Munster are winning, and plenty of successful teams in all sports – the Australian cricket team for example - get up to the same sort of thing all the time. Usually, there’s no harm in it. But Munster seem to have forgotten that the point of the niggly stuff is that it should help you to win the game. Against Leinster, the ‘style’ looked as though it had become an end in itself, very much to the detriment of the substance. Particularly up front.
Can the Munster pack recapture their form of old?
But it isn’t exactly surprising that Munster’s pack has regressed, given that it has recently lost two key personalities in Paul O’Connell and Anthony Foley. There is also an unusual uncertainty about selection across the entire eight. By my reckoning there are three props (Tony Buckley, John Hayes, Marcus Horan), two hookers (Frankie Sheahan and Jerry Flannery), three second rows (Donncha O’Callaghan, Donnacha Ryan, Mick O’Driscoll, with O’Connell injured) and four back rows (Ryan again, Denis Leamy, Anthony Foley, David Wallace, with Alan Quinlan injured) vying for places.
On the good news front, while Declan Kidney mightn’t exactly agree with all of the above analysis, he has apparently diagnosed some sort of problem and it is rumoured that former captain Anthony Foley will be named at number eight this weekend. That could be enough to re-imbue the current unit with the dignity, charisma, work ethic and nous that traditionally characterises the best of Munster forward play.
There is a less critical problem out wide, where the centre pair as it currently stands looks like being found out by better teams. Lofty pronouncements about its quality were made after the Wasps game, but the reality is that far from being Munster’s best ever 12/13 (which would, in the pro-era at least, comprise Trevor Halstead plus A.N Other) the Lifeimi Mafi/Rua Tipoki combination lacks penetration, doesn’t suit the back row configurations, and is defensively suspect. That becomes an even bigger problem when you consider that the classy and efficient Regan King will line out at 13 for the Scarlets.
But if he can be contained, Munster may get away with it until 
January, when a new 12/13 - Barry Murphy, or possibly even Doug Howlett, could be in the reckoning at outside centre - and O’Connell’s return could bring about further improvement.
That’s because the Scarlets are a) pretty much out of the tournament already and b) vulnerable to teams that are mentally tough enough to play at their own pace and that can also generate momentum. That isn’t to say they will roll over in front of a home crowd, but the task isn’t as hard as it might be.
Llanelli have participated in two of the odder games of recent months, hockeying Leinster at the RDS and having the same done to them at Stradey Park in Heineken Cup round two by Wasps. Even against Clermont-Auvergne they had a purple patch in which they scored two quick tries and, albeit briefly, looked like they might snatch an unlikely win. It all points to a team that is good when their gander is up and very poor when it isn’t. The quarter-final clash between the teams last year – which Llanelli won a shade cosily – also overshadows the match, but if Munster can handle the spells of madcap rugby, and score at a decent rate in their own periods of dominance, they should be able to negotiate this one.
The selection at the 9-10-12 axis could decide Leinster's fate.
For Leinster, beating Munster away will have gone some way towards repairing the confidence damaged in the second half against Toulouse. The defence was, as against Leicester in round one, the basis for the win and that should continue to be the case this weekend. Frothy rugby won’t get it done over two games, but the new Leinster are more than capable of putting in a balanced performance and getting a five pointer at home against a weak Edinburgh selection.
There are a few areas where things could go wrong, not least the 9-10-12 axis. In fact it isn’t overstating things to say that selection in those three positions over the next four games could 
ultimately decide Leinster’s fate in the pool. This time, Chris Keane is on the bench but he could stake a claim from there after looking accurate and assured when coming on as a sub for the younger Cillian Willis in the games since Chris Whitaker’s injury. Jonathan Sexton’s selection on the bench, with Christian Warner out of the 22, is also interesting, and Leinster may just find themselves edging more towards a Keane-Sexton-Felipe Contepomi unit at 9/10/12 over the next two matches, with Gordon D’Arcy possibly moving back to the wing to accommodate it. Stephen Knoop being in the 22 is also a major positive.
With recent form against them, and given the fact that they are away from home, Munster must clear the bigger hurdle this time around. But the weekend could and should see both Irish provinces keep their hopes alive, albeit with several bigger tests to come as the tournament continues.
Round Three predictions:
Treviso 12-22 Newport-Gwent Dragons
London Irish 23-10 Perpignan
Neath-Swansea Ospreys 32-7 Ulster
Bourgoin 25-19 Gloucester
Harlequins 18-12 Bristol Rugby
Saracens 35-9 Viadana
Clermont 25-13 London Wasps
Munster 15-8 Llanelli
Leinster 34-11 Edinburgh Rugby
Leicester 20-10 Toulouse
