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By Brendan Cole
Ireland’s squad must be trimmed from 37 to 30 on Sunday. Below, we outline the selection issues facing Eddie O’Sullivan ahead of the deadline – the date before which every nation must finalise its 30 players to travel.
The current squad:
Forwards: Neil Best, Rory Best, Simon Best, Leo Cullen, Simon Easterby, Stephen Ferris, Jerry Flannery, Keith Gleeson, John Hayes, Jamie Heaslip, Trevor Hogan, Marcus Horan, Bernard Jackman, Denis Leamy, Donncha O'Callaghan, Paul O'Connell, Mick O'Driscoll, Malcolm O'Kelly, Alan Quinlan, Frankie Sheahan, David Wallace, Bryan Young.
Backs: Isaac Boss, Tommy Bowe, Brian Carney, Gordon D'Arcy, Girvan Dempsey, Gavin Duffy, Shane Horgan, Denis Hickie, Geordan Murphy, Brian O'Driscoll, Ronan O'Gara, Eoin Reddan, Peter Stringer, Andrew Trimble, Paddy Wallace.
Forwards:
Props (4): Ireland has a small pool of props and Simon Best, John Hayes, Marcus Horan and Bryan Young are the best of them. All will travel, and all can expect to see significant game time. Hayes and Horan are first choice at this stage.
Verdict: All travel, with Hayes and Horan in prime position to start.
Hookers (3): Jerry Flannery and Rory Best will fight out a Battle Royale for the starting spot with Flannery likely to edge it on the basis of his superior throwing and carrying. Frankie Sheahan will hope to get involved in the struggle for the starting berth but realistically will be aiming to get on the bench for the bigger games. Bernard Jackman’s shaky throwing is likely to see him lose out, despite his excellent ball carrying ability.
Verdict: Jackman to lose out, with Flannery to claim the starting berth by the time the big games come around.
Second Rows 4): O’Sullivan claims he has settled on which locks to bring, which is most likely bad news for Leo Cullen and Trevor Hogan. Mick O’Driscoll started against Italy in the Six Nations and there is nothing to signal he is out of favour. Paul O’Connell is as close to ‘untouchable’ as it is possible to be in this squad, but Malcolm O’Kelly and Donncha O’Callaghan will have to fight tooth and nail to claim the second starting spot. O’Kelly is possibly more talented, definitely more experienced and likely to benefit more from the intensive pre-World Cup training.
Verdict: O’Driscoll to travel, O’Connell is guaranteed to start and O’Kelly to edge O’Callaghan out of the first XV.
Back Rows (5): Eddie brought six ‘action man’ types in 2003 and with only five set to get plane tickets to France the wailing and gnashing of teeth will be of even greater volume this time around. Simon Easterby, Denis Leamy and David Wallace are all certain to travel and make up a likely starting trio.
Neil Best has one foot on the plane but could still be displaced by a poor display against Scotland or a springer from the pack. The final spot, assuming Best gets in, is between Jamie Heaslip, Keith Gleeson, Stephen Ferris and Alan Quinlan. Quinlan might just shade it due to the fact that he was the best back rower in Europe until Christmas of last year, when a silly suspension cost him, and Munster, valuable momentum. That he saved Eddie’s bacon with a try against Argentina in the last World Cup won’t count against him either.
Verdict: Quinlan looks to me to be more sure of going than Best, who faces stiff competition from the fringe players. Leamy, Easterby and Wallace will each be very tough to shift from the starting XV. That trio, plus Quinlan and Ferris might just be the quintet.
Backs:
Scrum-Halves (3): Tomas O’Leary was cut last week so all three currently in the squad will travel as this is a specialist position. Peter Stringer is a strong incumbent and it may be that Eoin Reddan is the stronger competition for his spot than Isaac Boss, who has looked ponderous under pressure at times, at this stage.
Verdict: Reddan might fancy his chances, but the Stringer/O’Gara axis has been good to O’Sullivan down the years, and he is unlikely to mess with it now.
Out-Halves (2): Ronan O’Gara is vital to Ireland’s capacity to beat the better teams in this tournament. Paddy Wallace is his main back-up.
Verdict: O’Gara has been targeted before, particular when playing for Munster, and will need to be protected as much as possible from rampaging opposition back rows. Wallace will see game time against the weaker nations, but that is likely to be about it for him.
Centres (3): Brian O’Driscoll and Gordon D’Arcy have been extraordinarily successful since being brought together by good fortune as much as anything a few years ago. Andrew Trimble is the third centre and it is his best position, but he probably has a better chance of getting a start on the wing. Surely O’Sullivan will have learned from the France game that a move to centre quickly results in a drop in form for Shane Horgan?
Verdict: O’Driscoll and D’Arcy are the best pair in the competition, with Trimble is not far behind in terms of talent and a strong back-up option.
Utility (2): Gavin Duffy is a favourite of O’Sullivan’s, who rates the Connacht player highly enough to remove such proven provincial performers as Luke Fitzgerald and Robert Kearney from the squad ahead of him. Duffy did reasonably well against Argentina but will have to play well on Saturday to make extra sure of his place in the 30. Geordan Murphy is also included here as he is unlikely to start at full-back and provides cover at out-half as well as in the back three. He will hope the coach has forgiven him for his awful error in the tackle which let in the first try against France.
Wing (3): Denis Hickie and Shane Horgan are the incumbents here and Horgan in particular has proved he is capable of posing an unusual problem for defences at the highest level with his physique and athleticism. Tommy Bowe and Brian Carney, both set to play against Scotland, are in a straight fight for the third spot. Bowe has erred on more than one occasion in vital situations – against New Zealand in the last Test match for instance - while Carney has starred for Great Britain against Australia in Rugby League in that game’s biggest match. It is this factor which might just swing things his way.
Verdict: Horgan or Hickie may well lost out to Trimble with the latter more likely to be usurped. Carney is a dark horse for a starting spot, assuming he gets the nod ahead of Bowe.
Full-Back (1): Murphy is the likely cover, but Girvan Dempsey was perhaps Ireland’s best player in the Six Nations and is a certainty to start at 15. An excellent strike runner as well as a dependable defender, he could prove a good bet to be Ireland’s top try scorer.
Verdict: Dempsey has always been solid, is much improved as an attacker and will start all the big games.
