So, nobody is either as bad or as good as anyone thought they were! That, as is often the case, was the lesson of last weekend’s round of the RBS 6 Nations. In making my predictions I committed the mortal sin of underestimating home advantage in two cases (they were: Ireland to win by 40 to about eight or ten, Wales to win by a few points and England by six or seven), and it looks as if home advantage may yet prove to be the key factor in determining the final destination of this year’s RBS Six Nations Championship.
Can England get involved in the shakeup? The match of the weekend was, needless to say, their clash with France. Thanks to Brian Ashton and a few somewhat fortunate injuries, they have hit upon a good formula. Although they are still well behind Ireland, France and New Zealand, and probably South Africa and Australia as well, in world rugby terms, England showed at the weekend, that they can play a decent game under the right conditions. They are still limited in the types of game they can win, the key measure of a side’s quality, but they are going in the right direction and could yet do well in France if they get a few slices of luck and continue to improve between now and the world cup.
How have they turned things around? Ashton’s key decisions have been in team selection, which he has gotten right from the start. Although some picks have not gone as well as others, he has innovated and made good choices designed to optimise the performance on the field. The new winger David Strettle, the find of the tournament so far, is a case in point. Relatively unheralded, Ashton capitalised on his good club form by drafting him straight in to the starting XV when pressed by circumstance (Jason Robinson’s neck injury).
In fact, the Strettle case highlights the nature of the difference between Ashton and his predecessor Andy Robinson. When Robinson did something similar with Matthew Tait, it backfired spectacularly. Why did Ashton’s gamble succeed? My guess is that it’s something to do with his realism and his capacity to see things for what they are and go his own way, rather than doing what the media or anyone else tells him he should.
Mike Catt is another obvious case in point. As top managers do, Ashton made virtue of necessity by drafting him in in place of the injured Andy Farrell. Handing him the captaincy now looks like a masterstroke. Amazingly, he has made the injuries to key individuals look like part of a grand plan. A similar thing happened for Ireland a number of years ago, when Eddie O’Sullivan was all but forced to select Gordon D’Arcy against England in Twickenham in 2004. England are at a similar stage in their development.
What about France? Clearly, they aren’t as good as was thought in some quarters after the Croke Park game. They still have two top class operators in Yannick Jauzion and Serge Betsen, and some decent players in other positions. Skrela’s solidity has also been just what they needed, but they really fuddled their win over Ireland, and did the same in defeat at Twickenham at the weekend. They’ll surely beat Scotland, who are the worst team in the tournament, but hopefully for Ireland’s sake they’ll continue to struggle to score tries.
Ireland, meanwhile, can now be said to have developed a bad habit of getting into tetchy scraps against sides they should beat (a cohort in which I include France). By failing to establish a good lead against Scotland when they were dominant, the opening 20 minutes and the 10 minutes after half time being the key periods, Eddie O’Sullivan’s men allowed themselves to get involved in two eminently losable battles of will.
They only beat Scotland on the nod and lost to France the same way; both times they were open to desperate late lunges by weaker opposition. While they handled the end game infinitely better this time around than they did at Croke Park, remaining calm and making good decisions, they really must take a hard look at finding out how to really hammer home their natural advantages.
That will be particularly important next week against Italy. The Azzuri are hard to take the ball off and hard to establish momentum against, while Paul O’Connell is obviously a massive loss. A look at the tape of weekend one (France v Italy) might yield clues as to how to pry them open.
For Ireland, picking a made to measure team in the shape of a mobile and lightweight pack might prove the key. With the tournament at stake they must surely pick a side designed specifically to run up a score. That means speeding things up by bringing in a genuine openside, either Keith Gleeson or Shane Jennings. Shifting Simon Easterby into second row would be one solution. Picking Jerry Flannery at hooker would also be a positive step, particularly given Rory Best’s desperately poor crooked in at one lineout, slower delivery through the air in general and the fact that he gave away two of the penalties against Scotland and, if memory serves, one against France, and all in the same ‘hands in the ruck/in at the side’ manner.
All this is said in the full knowledge that Eddie O’Sullivan is nothing if not conservative, and that such changes are highly unlikely, but he could yet surprise us by going for the rugby equivalent of playing wingers and three men up front in this one.
Another caveat: even if Ireland can manage to put thirty points on Italy, it may not matter. France, the only side in with a shout of winning the tournament due to play at home, kick off in the middle of the day (Ireland play at 1.30pm), and play the weakest team in Scotland. They have everything going for them.
Wales, meanwhile, have every right to be disgusted with the manner of the loss in Italy. Forgetting the preceding 79 minutes, the manner in which a complete failure of communications was allowed to influence what is meant to be an equal and honourable contest between nations was a disgrace. Enough said.
Also disgraceful, insofar as we can tell, were the events of the final seconds of Scotland v Ireland. If Ronan O’Gara was, as is alleged, choked by an opposition competitor then no stone should be left unturned in uncovering who the perpetrator was.
Anyone who steps on a rugby field is to some extent at the mercy of their fellow players on both sides. There is such scope for skulduggery in rugby’s rucks and mauls that the game depends more than almost any other on players having a basic respect for each other’s safety and wellbeing. Together, the TMO time and the choking incidents leave a bad taste in the mouth.
Roll on next week.
