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The first thing we must acknowledge is that Ireland were extremely lucky to beat Wales on Sunday. The scoreline didn't even remotely reflect the way the game was played as Wales played all the rugby and Ireland played very little. But they won and if they're going to win a Grand Slam they are going to need some luck. However, I would think they used up an entire Championship's luck in this one match so they're going to have to be at their from now on if they are to stand any chance of a historic Six Nations win.
Everyone will play badly at some point in the Championship and the first match is always difficult for teams with players coming back after the Heineken Cup and of course managers don't have a lot of time with them. Eddie O'Sullivan now has another week to prepare for France and then, in fact, he has another two weeks to prepare for the England match. So it works out quite well for us having got over this hurdle.
It's not that the matches are going to get easier but Ireland are certainly going to get better. But the other teams are going to get better as well, and the worrying thing is just how good France and England looked last weekend. The French looked very organised and one of the real concerns for me is the way Laporte has been talking about how he is going to put out 40 players or not. I don't think he will as he is very close to his best side. I believe he will play his best XV against Ireland. Even somebody as eccentric as Laporte is going to try to beat Ireland. He might do something different against Scotland or Wales but he will put out his best team against Ireland in Dublin. So I think that's a significant worry.
I also think the return of Jonny Wilkinson, and although everybody is thrilled for the man himself, it's certainly bad news for us. The real question is have England got enough confidence for Ashton to put a better centre in than the two he has and at least make one change there? But he may stick to a simple gameplan, which could very well beat Ireland if England got control up front. So overall, my view of the weekend would be that I feel less confident on Monday than I did on Friday about winning a Grand Slam or a Triple Crown. I think the opposition has got stronger and there are concerns there for us, while our biggest concern of all is the injury to the two players.
We won't know really until 3.00pm on Sunday afternoon whether these guys are going to play or not. Eddie will certainly talk positively all week but will not make his mind up until very late and if we were to lose one or both of them, that makes a huge difference to Ireland's chances of success.
If we do lose either Brian O'Driscoll or Gordon D'Arcy, we do have better options than maybe other teams would have in similar circumstances. In Shane Horgan and Andrew Trimble we have two reasonably experienced internationals who have proved themselves at the top level, but we play a completely different game when the two of them are in the team. Horgan and Trimble resemble Andy Farrell and Mike Tindall of England rather than Yannick Jauzion and Florian Fritz of France.
If a world team was picked today it is possible that D'Arcy and O'Driscoll would be the centres. You just can't lose key men of that quality and expect to replace them. The bottom line is you can't so it's really scary. And it's even more scary because anyone who knows the hamstring knows you can't make it better in one week. You can maybe play in a week but you can't make it better. Now what Eddie will be trying to do, I suspect, is somehow get O'Driscoll through the French match and then he has two weeks to recover after that. But that's a very dicey call. D'Arcy was out for a huge amount of time after doing an awful lot of damage to his groin when he went over for a try in the corner in the Heineken Cup, so that's a real worry. This might not be a new injury and there's a huge possibility it's a recurrence of the old one, in which case we've really got cause for concern.
Elsewhere, I think Jerry Flannery will come back at hooker because he is going to need the lineout and Flannery is just the best lineout thrower we have. I think there's also a real issue about Geordan Murphy. Trimble didn't really look the part on Sunday and has never looked the part on the wing going backward. He's always looked good going forward and that's understandable because he's playing out of position, he's a centre playing out on the wing. The hardest part of rugby is when you don't have the ball in your hand. Everyone knows it's easy when you have the ball but it isn't when you don't have it and that's Trimble's main problem.
Therefore, I think he's got to bring Murphy in either in front of Girvan Dempsey or put him to full-back and put Dempsey on the wing, or the other way around. Personally, I'd put Murphy at full-back because that's his best position and, as Kevin Morgan proved last weekend, your opportunities for passing from full-back are wonderful and Murphy is one of the best attackers at No 15 in the world, so why not use him?
However, if I was putting money on it I'd back Eddie not to make any changes to the starting XV because if you look at his history it's all about continuity of selection. That's his mantra and I think there's a real possibility that he'll do nothing unless injury forces his had because that's the way he is. That's his technique and that's his style.
Looking at the Croke Park factor and how it might affect the outcome, I think the venue will be of no concern to the French. It'll mean nothing to them, for them it's just another rugby stadium so therefore the whole thing about history means nothing at all and I don't expect it to affect France at all. But I think it will bring enormous pressure on Ireland and I think we saw part of it on Sunday when they failed to overcome the pressure to perform and were lucky to escape Cardiff with the two points. They will be under even more pressure this Sunday so it's not going to be easy.
Psychologically, this is going to be a very difficult year for Ireland because expectations are so high. But it's too early to say until we see what the teams are but France clearly look a dangerous side. And we've got to remember that we're playing against France, the champions of Europe and the second favourites for the World Cup. Ireland have the potential to get the victory, absolutely, and have the potential to beat every team in the Championship. I'm not quite sure they can do it but they definitely have the ability to do it but we haven't been able to do it for nearly 60 years. We've been waiting a long time and there's no certainty it's going to happen this time.
Looking at the other matches last weekend, Italy were an enormous disappointment in their defeat to France. I really expected more of them and I thought they were very poor and I honestly don't think they are going to get better based on what I saw. Scotland were exactly how I would expected them to be, playing with tons of heart and tons of fire but not a lot of skill. I thought Wales were great. I couldn't understand in the build-up to Cardiff how people thought they were going to be a pushover. They still have some smashing players and they are better than us in seven or eight positions.
England with Jonny Wilkinson back are 50% better so they've got to be a real threat. If Wilkinson survives this Championship, which I actually hope he does for the man himself, I think England could there or thereabouts at the end.
And it's got to be remembered England have a very favourable start with Scotland and Italy at home and then Ireland away. That's a great start. They are going to come to Croke Park with two victories under their belts and an extra week's rest. Confidence will be high and I wouldn't fancy laying a bet on that match.
George Hook was in conversation with Shane Murray
