ITALY
Italy have gotten better and better in recent years and will be targeting their traditional victims, Wales and Scotland, in better spirits than ever, as well as looking for that ever elusive ‘big gun’ scalp in this year’s tournament. Surprisingly, they have progressed under former French scrum-half Pierre Berbizier. He has certainly managed much more than just ‘teaching them how to cheat’, as former England hooker Brian Moore had (tongue-in-cheek) predicted.
Under Berbizier, Italy have continued to innovate, recognising that they cannot win by using orthodox methods alone. Their ‘double switch’ back-line move and their unique one-man defence against the rolling maul were two of the more interesting features of last year’s championship, and we can expect them to dare to be different once again this time around.
In addition to this, their pack power is now exceptional. Martin Castrogiovanni, Andrea Lo Cicero and Marco Bortolami form the core of what is perhaps the best ‘tight’ pack in the competition, while Sergio Parisse and Mauro Bergamasco are outstanding loose forwards.
Unfortunately, while their traditional strengths are in better nick than ever, the Italian back play has languished of late. They have not come close to replacing Diego Dominguez, who was able to disguise and cover up much of their forward play with his cleverness and good kicking. This means they will once again compete well against teams with limited resources out wide – particularly Scotland – but most likely be undone by the cutting edge of the Irish, French, Welsh and English back lines.
Player To Watch: Sergio Parisse
The 23-three year old made his debut in 2002, becoming the youngest ever Test number eight, and he has never looked like letting Italy down. With a fearsome combination of a tremendously strong physique and a warrior attitude, he seems to be able to overpower opposition back rows by force of will alone. If the somewhat injury-prone Parisse and Ireland’s Denis Leamy make it to Rome for Italy v Ireland on the last day of the tournament, we may well be treated to a personal duel to decide which of these remarkable young players is the best number eight in the tournament.
Prediction: Fifth
ENGLAND
Oh, if only England had held on to Andy Robinson for one more tournament. With Brian Ashton in charge, England are truly dangerous again. While it remains to be seen whether his experimental out-half and centre combination of Jonny Wilkinson, Andy Farrell and Mike Tindall will be a truly dangerous unit, that they have even been picked is evidence of Ashton’s obvious superiority to ‘Robbo’ as a selector.
Last year, Robinson seemed to pick on reputation and, even worse, allowed himself to become embroiled in a foolish and avoidable subplot involving Lawrence Dallaglio and an exercise bike. Now, with the no-nonsense Phil Vickery in charge and ‘Lags’ banished to a gym to do his on-the-spot cycling, England, if their media coverage is anything to go by, is once again expecting.
Confidence bordering on arrogance, forward power and efficient kicking and back play are what to expect in the early part of this campaign, during which England have easy, confidence-building games. After these, with Ashton in charge, they are likely to improve rather than implode.
This is more bad news for Ireland as they play England on the third weekend, after which they will have won virtual warm-ups against Scotland and Italy.
They’ll have their tales up and would like nothing more than to put one over Ireland in Croke Park. In their favour, Ireland are the best equipped team in the competition to find out if England’s new midfield trio has what takes.
Player To Watch: Andy Farrell
Farrell is one of the greatest Rugby League players ever to pick up the slightly wrong shaped of rugby ball. His switch to Union has been a fascinating subplot of this season and, after a shaky start as a flank forward, the former Wigan man has begun to blossom in the centre.
Farrell is an immensely powerful yet subtle player, and England will hope he brings leadership, maturity and nous to a back line that looked callow and unsure of itself by the end of Robinson’s disastrous reign.
Farrell looks to have the right stuff but the Six Nations is a whole new ball game. On the other hand, based on the evidence of a career during which every challenge has been met with vigour, Farrell will not be found wanting.
Prediction: Second
WALES
The Welsh Dragon has fizzled rather than fired since winning the 2005 Grand Slam. At this remove, that success looks like an aberration caused by an unbelievably bad performance by France, the first of many Andy Robinson-inspired cock-ups by England and, finally, by a serious Ireland ‘choke’ in the final match of the tournament.
To be fair, that Welsh team played some exceptional high-octane rugby through which they stayed in games that other teams might have given up on. Heartening for their supporters is that most of the ingredients are still there, and that there’s been a potential significant improvement: the addition of James Hook.
Some in the Valleys fear Hook’s defence may not be up to it in the tough inside centre channel but from this side of the Welsh border he looks to have the tools to unlock even the best drilled of defences. There is still no substitute for genuine flair and the Neath-Swansea man is perhaps the best player of his type to arrive on the world rugby scene since Stephen Larkham.
The big question is ‘can Hook improve Wales enough to trouble Ireland?’ Wales were so poor in last year’s fixture and are so weak in certain forward positions that the most likely answer is ‘no’.
Player To Watch: Ryan Jones
Besides Hook, Ryan Jones is hugely important to Wales’s chances this year. He’s come on in leaps and bounds since being a sidekick in the 2005 team and is now Wales’s premier ball-carrying threat.
Besides this, he is a tremendously brave defender who hits big and makes turnovers in key areas. In a tournament packed with outstanding number eights, Jones could yet turn out to be the best of them, if only due to his speed advantage.
Prediction: Fourth
SCOTLAND
Frank Hadden has orchestrated a tremendous turnaround since taking charge of the Scottish national team in late 2005. However, the suspicion is that he may have taken them about as far as possible. Hadden won’t have the advantage of surprise this time around and with injuries to key forwards – Ally Hogg and Jason White are both sidelined – they will struggle to match last year’s performance, when they beat England and France in the same Six Nations.
Once again, it is the teams who play them at Murrayfield – Ireland, Wales and Italy - who have the most to worry about. Even despite playing them away though, Scotland are beginning to look like the smallest threat to Ireland’s Six Nations Grand Slam chances. Unlike Italy, they cannot hope to outmuscle Ireland up front and the low-rucking, fast-paced style they have fostered is easily countered once Eddie O’Sullivan and his video analysts see it coming and train for it.
In their other ‘target games’ a decided inability to score tries will hinder Scotland’s chances of doing well. Wales ought to have too much class while Italy might just take the opportunity to confirm that it is they rather than the Scots who are the fifth best team in this competition.
The match against England at Twickenham is of particular interest for Irish fans. How will Hadden counter England’s new midfield axis? Can they cope with a rush defence or whatever other device the Scots choose to try? It will also be worth checking out whether a rather fresh looking England eight can handle what ought to be a spirited challenge from the Scottish pack.
Player To Watch: Chris Cusiter
Scotland have struggled to produce outstanding individuals in most positions for a number of years now with one exception: scrum half. Mike Blair, favoured since Hadden took over from Matt Williams, is out injured, which means that Chris Cusiter will start at number nine against England.
Both Blair and Cusiter have the complete package of scrum half skills, although Cusiter is arguably the better defender. His passing, kicking and all round play are of the highest quality while his ability to function as an auxiliary back row, stealing ball on the deck and tieing up defenders with his break, is a bonus Scotland are badly in need of given the dearth of talent from numbers 10 to 15.
Prediction: Wooden spoon
FRANCE
France look a bit of a mess at the moment. However, as every Irish fan knows, they are never more dangerous than when they are down. No other team defies the logic of training, form or preparation with quite such regularity as Les Bleus and it is for one of these unpredictable turnarounds in form that Ireland will have to be on the look-out for on February 11 (match weekend two).
France are without Fabien Pelous and Damien Traille for their opening match against Italy, for which they have picked a somewhat experimental XV, and have significant doubts about the out-half position.
David Skrela is set to start at 10 but there are indications that Frederic Michalak may be brought back in for yet another run if he recovers from injury during the tournament.
That Traille should be back for the Ireland match, that the impressive Nicholas Jauzion will start at centre and that Serge Betsen is also back in harness does not bode well for Ireland.
Still, it must be in Ireland’s favour that France are not playing their best team in the opening match: perhaps a certain amount of discontinuity will creep in? Taking a broader view, the clash between England and France on March 11 looks one of the tournament's outstanding matches and is likely to prove the best indicator of each team’s World Cup strength.
Player To Watch: Serge Betsen
Blindside wing-forward Betsen is a remarkably efficient and destructive defender. Watch when the ball will be carried into his massive area of influence, often at the tail of the lineout, the blindside of the scrum, or just outside the centres and see how often it is either turned over or slowed down so much as to become useless.
Probably the second best exponent of clever and frustrating back row play in the world behind Richie McCaw of New Zealand, Betsen’s return to the French starting line-up may just re-invigorate their play across the field as the work he does is just as influential as any fly-half’s boot.
Prediction: Third
IRELAND
Ireland enter this year’s tournament as worthy favourites. They had the best form in November and have improved steadily since the second half of the France match last year. On the other hand, Ireland didn’t play New Zealand and this may have skewed our view of their capabilities compared to England, Wales and France, who did. It is also bad news that each of these three has valid reasons to be upbeat ahead of this year’s tournament.
That being said, Ireland can, for the first time, genuinely believe that their best rugby is good enough to win every game no matter what the opposition does. The Croke Park factor should also provide a massive boost for the big games against England and France.
The lineout, whether it is Rory Best or Jerry Flannery doing the throwing in, should once again provide a stable attacking platform while the scrum is the only area in which they may need the rub of the green – a referee’s decision or two for instance – to mask what is undoubtedly a weakness.
Their major strengths remain the pace, angles, invention and passing of the backs, the forwards' pace and accuracy in the loose and the laser-guided boot of Ronan O’Gara. No other team has such a well-defined and proven way of playing as this Ireland side: class, experience and familiarity with each other should prove enough to get them over the line and into Grand Slam heaven.
Player To Watch: Brian O’Driscoll
Although he’s hard to miss, O’Driscoll’s excellence has been almost taken for granted for a number of years now. We expect him to perform remarkable feats in every game and he invariably does, even in the tightest matches and under the greatest pressure.
The ‘spice boy’ period has left him an under-rated rugby thinker and captain but the evidence on the field is that he’s a true warrior, respected by his team mates and capable of making the right decisions in the context of the ebb and flow of any given match.
It is inconceivable that Ireland would be where they are now without O’Driscoll, and even more hard to believe that he will end his career without at least one Grand Slam. This is the most promising year yet for him to lead his country to that feat.
Prediction: Grand Slam
Brendan Cole
