(And five reasons Ireland will win the Grand Slam!)
1. Wales Will Start James Hook
Wales look set to start James Hook at inside centre against Ireland. Unlike Gavin Henson, his predecessor as the messiah of Welsh rugby, the Neath-Swansea Ospreys man is the real deal. While he may lack true speed, it is Hook’s natural ability to time and transfer the ball, reminiscent of the great Stephen Larkham, and his footwork and eye for a gap that could undo Ireland’s title charge at the outset.
On the other hand Ireland may have been fortunate in that the schedule has them down to play Wales first, where their settled team can capitalise on uncertainty in the Welsh ranks.
2. England have sacked Andy Robinson
It is most unfortunate for Ireland that Argentina managed to beat England at the end of the November internationals, as it precipitated the end of Andy Robinson’s farcical reign as England boss. One more tournament for Robbo and Ireland could have chalked up the clash against England as a win already. As it stands, the Twickenham top brass did the right thing and hired Brian Ashton, a natural rugby thinker who innovates, gets selection right and follows his instincts.
Ashton will bring coherence, rather than the buzz word nonsense that passed for management under Robinson, and is much better equipped to assess and undermine this Irish team.
3. Their Scrum Is Too Weak To Win a Grand Slam
The new rules – which have basically narrowed the gap between opposing front rows at the ‘hit’ stage - were expected to depower the scrum, which would have been in Ireland’s favour. Instead, they appear to have re-asserted the importance of technique over bulk. Bad news for Hayes, Flannery and Horan.
Certainly, Irish scrums have suffered in the Heineken Cup under the new laws. On the other hand, Ireland don’t need to dominate at the scrum and could avoid sustaining too much damage if the refereeing is sympathetic. Whatever way you look at it, the scrum is Ireland’s soft underbelly: surely O’Sullivan will have a plan to keep it from being exposed?
Ireland have managed to win four out of five games with a relatively poor scrum in three of the last four years. Winning five out of five must be possible.
4. Jonny Wilkinson and Andy Farrell
Wilkinson, seen back to his best playing for Newcastle last week, and Farrell, a Rugby League great beginning to come into his own in Union, could between them sharply raise the calibre of England’s back play.
Although English media coverage is often absurdly positive, there is genuine hope that, between them, this pair is the missing link. This hope is not completely without foundation: by the time they play Ireland, the England backline may well be Harry Ellis and Jonny Wilkinson at half-back, Andy Farrell and Mike Tindall at centre, and Jason Robinson, Josh Lewsey and Iain Balshaw in the back three. Rather more formidable than the Ellis, Goode, Abbot, Noon, Cohen, Cueto, Voyce combination sent out at Twickenham last year.
5. We Can’t Beat France Unless They Let Us
Psychologically, there is no team Irish rugby fears more than France. Nobody else has such a mystique, such an aura or such an ability to induce a feeling in the Irish rugby fan that a hiding may be just around the corner.
All this is based on our feeling that we can’t beat the French if the French really try hard; that we can’t win unless they let us. This is the case even though Ireland have won against Les Bleus at a steady rate in recent years. In fact, a notable feature of each victory was the number of commentators prepared to say that it was only because the French weren’t that bothered.
This time around, Eddie O’Sullivan and the rest of the brains trust will doubtless have studied the key footage; France have been beaten by Argentina and New Zealand recently, and they look to have stalled under Bernard Laporte.
It may just be that this is the year that Ireland lay to rest their most deep-seated inferiority complex.
Brendan Cole
