(And five reasons Ireland won't win the Grand Slam!)
1. It’s About Time
Since the year 2000, when the Five Nations became the Six Nations, Ireland have only ever finished either second or third in the final table. They are better than England, Wales, Scotland and Italy and lie just one game behind France in our ‘Accumulated Six Nations’ table. Even more remarkably, they have won four out of five in three of the last four years.
In fact, when taken together, the last six years add up to a period of sustained achievement unmatched in the history of Irish rugby. Who would have predicted in 2000 that Ireland would be better than England not just in the odd match but over the first half of the new decade? Or that they would be just one game behind France in a league of total victories (25 out of 36 matches played to Ireland versus 26 out of 36 to France)?
On the other hand, the table is a reminder that Ireland don’t score anywhere near as heavily as the other ‘big three’ teams – a six-year points differential of +209 to England’s +643 is testament to the efficiency of the England machine. However, even this flaw has become less pronounced in recent years with Ireland conceding less than 100 points in 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006 and scoring in the lower mid 100s in every one of those years.
All in all, the accumulated table brings one key factor into sharp relief ahead of this year’s tournament: Ireland have, for a long time, been as good as anyone in this competition in all departments but one - Championship and Grand Slam victories.
2. The Croker Factor
Has Lansdowne Road been good for Ireland? Undoubtedly, there have been famous victories at the grand old stadium but it’s undeniable that more than a few of Ireland’s best victories in recent years have come at the Millennium Stadium, Stade Francais and Twickenham - all of which are tiered, Croke Park-style stadiums.
Irish sports fans are well known for being the ‘best in the wurdled’ on their travels, but could it be that we’re so effective at enlivening the atmosphere at foreign fields because we have to shout so loud to get heard at dear old Lansdowne?!
Croke Park, enclosed on three sides, will be a different sort of experience for the Irish team and for the visitors. Used to dealing with wind and passion, how will France and England handle a wall of noise?
3. Eddie O’Sullivan Is The Best Coach
This year’s Six Nations coaches are: Eddie O’Sullivan (Ireland), Gareth Jenkins (Wales), Pierre Berbizier (Italy), Frank Hadden (Scotland), Brian Ashton (England) and Bernard Laporte (France).
Would any other nation turn down the understated Youghal native if they could get their hands on him? As with all the others he has ability. What sets him apart is that, unlike Jenkins, Hadden, Berbizier and Ashton, he has a number of years experience as an international head coach.
Even more important, and unlike Laporte, O’Sullivan has made quiet but consistent progress with Ireland. Although his team is experienced, the coach has got himself the right mix by bringing in new talent even at the expense of old reliables and fan favourites like Anthony Foley.
Laporte, meanwhile, has managed the French juggernaut to a standstill. Make no mistake: it is through the manager’s neglect that they are deficient in key areas ahead of this year’s tournament. Would Fabien Pelous be involved with the French squad if ‘Fast Eddie’ was in charge?
4. The Irish Lineout Is The Best, and The Lineout Matters Most
Back in the old days, the scrum was king when it came to determining which pack had the upper hand. Now, though, there are more lineouts than scrums and, unlike the lotteries of old, they can be a source of guaranteed possession. This is why coaches value the speed, athleticism and precision needed to run a good lineout over the peculiar body shape, technical ability and brute force needed in the scrum.
Jerry Flannery’s return should see that Ireland’s traditional lineout excellence is maintained and they have another unique weapon in John Hayes. Paul O’Connell and Donncha O’Callaghan are top athletes with good hands, and they receive much of the credit, but Ireland’s lineout quality has its foundation on the ground.
Not only this, but Hayes’s bulk also means that he is more than a match for almost any other prop in the competition in the maul. With Flannery’s throwing set to have Ireland ticking over nicely on their own ball, it could be that Hayes’s lifting and bulk and O’Connell and O’Callaghan’s ability to read and react turn out to be Ireland’s key source of turnover ball, and a key plank in their assault on the Grand Slam.
5. They Have The Best Players
If you were picking a team of the tournament before it started, how many Irish men would be on it? Near-definite picks would be Paul O’Connell, Ronan O’Gara, Brian O’Driscoll, Gordon D’Arcy and Shane Horgan. These players are almost peerless in Europe at this time and would be welcomed with open arms into the starting XV of almost any team in the world. Andrew Trimble, Jerry Flannery and Denis Leamy would also have strong claims for inclusion in a Six Nations composite team.
The conclusion is inescapable: Ireland’s best players are good enough. However, this has often been the case in the past. As the saying goes in rugby, “you’re only as strong as your weakest link”.
This is where Ireland comes into their own. ‘Acquired tastes’ like John Hayes and Peter Stringer mightn’t slot easily into other teams - they are under-rated, unorthodox players who have been heavily criticised at times. But it is in this kind of player, who fills a key role without necessarily being in the classical mould, that the true strength of the team resides.
While the star players are crucial to Ireland’s chances, it is adaptable performers like Hayes and Stringer that make it possible for a smaller nation like Ireland to successfully mix it with the big boys.
Brendan Cole
