Bernard Jackman believes South Africa could be taking too big a risk with their 7:1 bench selection for the Rugby World Cup final against New Zealand on Saturday.
The Springboks named their team for this weekend's final against New Zealand (live on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player) on Thursday morning, bringing Faf de Klerk and Handre Pollard into their side, and dropping Cobus Reinach and Manie Libbok from the matchday 23 entirely.
Reinach and Libbok had started in the half-backs for the quarter and semi-final wins against France and England, but there's no place for them in the squad on Saturday, with director of rugby Rassie Erasmus and head coach Jacques Nienaber choosing to take seven forwards and just one back on their replacements bench.
The Springboks have used the 7:1 split twice in recent months, most recently in their Pool B defeat to Ireland, but also in the warm-up win against the All Blacks in August.
"I actually didn't see this coming," Jackman said on the RTÉ Rugby World Cup podcast, just minutes after the team news was confirmed.
The forward-heavy bench has split opinion in rugby since it was debuted by South Africa in August, with some suggesting it isn't within the spirit of the game.
But while Jackman has no issues with whether or not it should be allowed, he says the Springboks are leaving themselves exposed in the half-backs if they pick up an injury early in the game.
"It's probably the biggest risk I’ve seen any coach take going into a World Cup final. That’s the beauty of the 7:1," he said.
"It’s not immoral, it’s a risk for the team who do it, and obviously the reward can be really big, having seven forwards to come on could be game-changing.
"Leading into the Ireland game there was all kind of talk about potentially a 7:1, but I thought that experiment was dead.
"I think it didn't work in terms of Ireland, they finished strong, and there were no early injuries, but they didn’t get the result. I thought it was just an experiment."
The former Ireland hooker added that he wouldn't be surprised if there was a late change to the teamsheet before kick-off on Saturday, to potentially bring Reinach onto the bench at the expense of a forward.
"To make this call, if it happens...I'll be shocked if there’s not a late calf strain before the warm-up.
"I just think it’s too big a gamble, when there’s no need to gamble. You’re already getting massive impact from a 6:2 split, and it’s been a big part of the Boks."
Former New Zealand hooker James Parsons joined Jackman on the podcast, and said while he applauded the bravery of the South African selection, he agreed with Jackman that there may yet be a late change.
"You've got to love him [Rassie Erasmus], he's a unique man and he just lives his life and his Springboks side do everything their way, and don’t care what anyone else says or thinks," the ex-Auckland Blues hooker said.
"The moment you assume that this is what Rassie is going to do, it’s the moment he’ll pull another trick out of his hat.
"I don’t think this story is all said and done yet, but it’ll make the All Blacks think. I don’t think they’ll be too surprised, 6:2 or 7:1, the risk is probably with South Africa."
While Willie le Roux is the only recognised back on the South African bench, back row forward Kwagga Smith's [below] background in Sevens would see him deployed as emergency cover in the backline, although he's yet to play outside of the pack during the tournament.
Similarly, replacement flanker Deon Fourie is also on call to fill in as cover for hooker Bongi Mbonambi in the event of an injury.
And Parsons believes South Africa are leaving a lot to chance with their selections.
He said: "That's the risk, if anyone goes down, who can actually play in the backs?
"I know Kwagga [Smith] has his Sevens history and he’s suited, but if your 9 or 10 goes down, or two in those positions, you’ll be really caught short.
"Especially if conditions are wet, you’re going to need a good tactical kicker, that’s why I think Pollard and De Klerk is perfect. But man, if they get an injury early out back, it’ll make for a long day.
"I think as well, the strength of the All Blacks has been their lineout defence, they’ve stemmed a lot of attacking flow, and if they lose Bongi [Mbonambi] early, man that’s going to put a lot of pressure on the weapon that worked really well at Twickenham.
"Credit to them if they win. It's so ballsy."
While Jackman says he thinks the call could be a bit too adventurous, he admits it's certainly raised excitement levels ahead of the decider.
"I don't know why he’d go to this. It’s fascinating and it’s all everybody will be talking about, and for the All Blacks it gives them a different dilemma to problem-solve for," added the 2009 Champions Cup winner.
"It’s a bit of a flex, but there's an inherent risk against the All Blacks, and if it goes 7:1, it may be the rock they perish on.
"I think they could do with another back on the bench."
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