New Zealand were waiting in the long grass for Ireland given what happened in the Test series in 2022. It has come come out since those game how much they have revamped their whole approach: revamped their defence as a consequence of how Ireland played.
In some ways that's the ultimate compliment but no consolation now that we're out of the tournament.
I think the driving factor for New Zealand here is 12 of their matchday squad tonight would have been part of the team that hammered Ireland four years ago in Japan and went into a semi-final against England in similar circumstances and ended up losing. I just can't see them allowing that to happen again.
The problem for Argentina has been scoring tries. I think in terms of territory and possession they have the highest percentages in the tournament but they struggle to score. They were really poor in their opening game, beaten well by an England team that had Tom Curry sent off after four minutes. That has been their problem, if you don't score tries against New Zealand you are not going to beat them.
On the flip side they played them in the Rugby Championship every year so they are familiar with them. They will be aggressive, are a united bunch, and have been improving throughout the tournament.
I just don't see New Zealand getting caught in a semi-final in two World Cups in a row.
Verdict: New Zealand
Last week's absorbing quarter-final victory over France could impact South Africa, but what the Springboks have in their favour more than any other team is they have rotated their players far more throughout the tournament.
They have two equally strong teams, and as a result of that, the minutes played by the vast majority of their squad is the least of any team left in the tournament. That is going to be a factor.
England were really struggling when they came into the World Cup. That opening game against Argentina, when they won against the odds, gave them a massive boost.
You look at their performances since, they struggled to beat Samoa, they struggled to beat Fiji in the quarter-final.
They do have a hardcore group of players that played in a World Cup final against South Africa four years ago, so that will certainly stand to them. It will be a defiant England, but this is a far more rounded South Africa team than the one that won the World Cup and are playing a better brand of rugby.
They still have that dogged, belligerence up front, but you have wingers in Kurt-Lee Arendse and Cheslin Kolbe who are absolute flyers. We saw the issues they presented last weekend.
I think England will make a big contest of it, but I think it will be the old familiar of New Zealand and South Africa in a final.
Verdict: South Africa
Donal Lenihan was speaking on Morning Ireland on RTÉ Radio 1.
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