It all comes down to this. Ireland face Scotland in Paris at 8pm on Saturday night.
It's not exactly winner takes all with a series of permutations allowing for Ireland to lose and still progress.
A win or a draw removes the need for the abacus and Andy Farrell's men will be hoping that it's not needed at all.
Find out all you need to know about the game here.
RADIO
Listen to live commentary on RTÉ Radio 1 with Michael Corcoran and David Humphreys.
ONLINE
Follow a live blog on RTE.ie/sport and the RTÉ News App followed by report, reaction and player ratings.
TV
The match is live on Virgin Media TV.
WEATHER
Paris is set to be clear and cool on Saturday night. No breeze to talk of and temperature of around 13C.
Ireland go through if they
- Win
- Draw
- Lose by less than eight without Scotland getting five points from the match
- Lose by 21 or more but score four tries
Ireland go out if they
- Lose by eight or more without scoring four tries
All the available evidence points to an Irish win but despite winning eight in a row against Scotland, there have been a few close calls in those games.
You can read a full review of Ireland's recent head-to-head against the Scots here.
Ireland are on a 16-game winning run, including Pool B victories over Romania, Tonga and South Africa, two weeks ago. Two points from this game would see them qualify top, for just the second time in their World Cup pool history, and likely face a match-up with New Zealand in the quarter-finals.
Gregor Townsend's side lost their opener to the Springboks but bounced back with routine wins over Tonga and Romania.
Ireland's average winning margin against Scotland over the last six years has been 14.3 points, again, that doesn't tell the full story, with the Dark Blue having had chances within those matches to turn Ireland over.
The sides have met 141 times since 1877 with Ireland leading 69 to 67 and there have been five draws.
Two of those meetings came in World Cups with Ireland losing 24-15 in 1991 and winning in 2019 in Japan, 27-3.
Andy Farrell has made two changes to his side that beat the Springboks 13-8 two weeks ago with Dan Sheehan coming in for Rónan Kelleher at hooker and lock Iain Henderson replacing James Ryan.
Robbie Henshaw faces a couple of weeks out at least with a hamstring injury with Stuart McCloskey starting on the bench. Jack Crowley, once again, is preferred over Ross Byrne to cover out-half.
Scotland, meanwhile, have omitted scrum-half Ben White from the match-day squad. His place is taken by Ali Price in what is the only change from the team's 18-3 opening-round defeat to the world champions.
There's no place in the squad, which has a 6:2 split on the bench, for Lion Hamish Watson or former Munster out-half Ben Healy.
Ireland: Hugo Keenan; Mack Hansen, Garry Ringrose, Bundee Aki, James Lowe; Johnny Sexton (capt), Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong; Tadhg Beirne, Iain Henderson; Peter O'Mahony, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris.
Replacements: Rónan Kelleher, Dave Kilcoyne, Finlay Bealham, James Ryan, Jack Conan, Conor Murray, Jack Crowley, Stuart McCloskey.
Scotland: Blair Kinghorn; Darcy Graham, Huw Jones, Sione Tuipulotu, Duhan van der Merwe; Finn Russell, Ali Price; Pierre Schoeman, George Turner, Zander Fagerson; Richie Gray, Grant Gilchrist; Jamie Ritchie (capt), Rory Darge, Jack Dempsey.
Replacements: Ewan Ashman, Rory Sutherland, WP Nel, Scott Cummings, Matt Fagerson, Luke Crosbie, George Horne, Ollie Smith.
Referee: Nic Berry (Australia)
AR: Wayne Barnes (England)
AR: Jordan Way (Australia)
TMO: Brett Cronan (Australia)
WHAT THEY SAID
Andy Farrell (Ireland head coach): "We want to win. It's a massive game, so important to us and obviously to the travelling fans and the people back home. Fortunately we have Iain Henderson who is good at maths so we're across everything as far as that's concerned. But the easiest thing is to make sure we perform well and deserve to win the game outright."
Gregor Townsend (Scotland head coach): "It's going to be a battle at times. The forwards are going to work really hard for us, to produce quick ball and to slow Ireland's ball down. We feel two back rowers on the bench give us more opportunity to do that. Us getting quick ball is crucial to how we are going to play and have success."
Scotland 7-22 Ireland - Murrayfield (12 March 2023) Six Nations
Ireland 26-5 Scotland - Aviva Stadium (19 March 2022) Six Nations
Scotland 24-27 Ireland - Murrayfield (14 March 2021) Six Nations
Ireland 31-16 Scotland - Aviva Stadium (5 December 2020) Autumn Nations Series
Ireland 19-12 Scotland - Aviva Stadium (1 February 2020) Six Nations
Elsewhere the action continues on Friday night with France facing Italy at 8pm. On Saturday, already-qualified Wales meet Georgia in Nantes at 2pm, England, also into the last eight, face Samoa at 4.45pm in Lille.
Japan and Argentina clash at midday on Sunday, followed by Tonga and Romania at 4.45pm. The final match of the pool stages kicks off at 8pm with Portugal taking on Fiji.
You can find the full list of fixtures and results here.
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