Throughout this Rugby World Cup campaign Andy Farrell has played it relatively safe with his team selections, which in an ironic way has been a high-risk strategy.
For the first three games of Pool B, the Ireland coach has picked close to his best available team, targeting continuity in the squad to build their way through the tournament.
The risk involved has been injury-related. Ireland could have put out a second-string side against Romania and won handsomely, while some of the front-liners could also have been given the night off against Tonga had he wished.
So far, the risk appears to have been worth it. They were thankful for that level of continuity in the side against South Africa, and Johnny Sexton has looked as good as ever with three games under his belt. A hamstring twinge or a rolled ankle in either of those opening games and we may not have been so pleased.
Having had a chance to rest the bodies during the recent bye-week, there's no reason why we won’t see Ireland's strongest possible XV again when Farrell names his squad to take on Scotland in the Pool B decider at 1.45pm.
Considering the injuries some of their rivals have had to deal with, Ireland have enjoyed the rub of the green in their opening games. The likes of Dan Sheehan, Jack Conan and Dave Kilcoyne all brought knocks into the tournament but all three have now recovered; Sheehan and Kilcoyne have both seen game time in the tournament while Conan is available for selection this week against the Scots.
It’s unlikely we’ll see Robbie Henshaw at the Stade de France on Saturday though. The centre (above) sat out training on Wednesday after picking up a "niggle", according to forwards coach Paul O'Connell, and having also been a late scratch for the opening game of the tournament against Romania due to a hamstring injury it’s a concern to see the 30-year-old now hit with another setback in training.
Henshaw made valuable additions off the bench in the wins over Tonga and South Africa, and should he miss out on this weekend’s pool decider it would open the door for one of Jimmy O’Brien or Stuart McCloskey to come in and make their first appearances of the World Cup. Keith Earls is also an option to step into the matchday squad. Either way, Farrell has options.
In the starting team, the most compelling case for a change would be at hooker, where Dan Sheehan has come back to full fitness. The 25-year-old was a second-half replacement against the Springboks after recovering from a foot issue and, having been first choice in the Ireland side up until the tournament, he could get the nod to come in ahead of Rónan Kelleher, where he would partner Andrew Porter and Tadhg Furlong in the front row.
James Ryan (above) emerged as a minor doubt for this week’s game when it was revealed on Tuesday by assistant coach Mike Catt that he had suffered a hand injury in the win against South Africa. However, the vice-captain trained fully this week with the injury strapped up, and appears to be on course to play.
In the back row, Conan is also fully fit again after his own foot injury took longer than expected to heal. The trio of Caelan Doris, Josh van der Flier and Peter O’Mahony have all excelled through the opening three games though, and it would be a surprise for Farrell to shake up the balance at this stage.
Conan could come onto the bench however, a role he executed brilliantly during the Six Nations, in particular when he scored a try in the 22-7 win against the Scots in March.
Should O’Mahony (below) be retained at flanker, it would be a 100th cap for the Munster captain, becoming the tenth player to hit that mark for the men’s team.
One of the other big selection calls to make could be at scrum-half, where Conor Murray is putting pressure on Jamison Gibson-Park after a string of impressive displays.
Murray has maintained an impressive run of form since the tail end of last season, and his 16-minute cameo off the bench versus South Africa was arguably the pick of those displays, making five tackles and a crucial turnover in the closing stages of the 13-8 win.
Similar to someone like Iain Henderson, those impressive displays off the bench may be the very reason he is kept there though, giving Farrell valuable experience and game management at a time of the match when they may need it.
Beyond that, the rest of the backline picks itself.
Johnny Sexton has now reached the point of no return; in theory, this could be the Ireland captain’s final game of rugby, although if Bundee Aki maintains the form he’s shown in the early stages of the tournament, the retirement should be pushed out by at least one more week.
Aki (above) has cemented himself in the 12 jersey with four tries and two Player of the Match awards so far in the tournament, aided in midfield by Garry Ringrose.
In the back three, Hugo Keenan will take up his usual place at full-back, and should be flanked by wingers James Lowe and Mack Hansen.
Possible Ireland XV (v Scotland): Hugo Keenan; Mack Hansen, Garry Ringrose, Bundee Aki, James Lowe; Johnny Sexton (capt), Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong; Tadhg Beirne, James Ryan; Peter O’Mahony, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris.
Replacements: Rónan Kelleher, Dave Kilcoyne, Finlay Bealham, Iain Henderson, Jack Conan, Conor Murray, Jack Crowley, Jimmy O’Brien.
