Finally, the World Cup will get underway in France this weekend.
This World Cup cycle has been hugely positive for Ireland, a clear evolution since the 2019 quarter-final loss to New Zealand.
Not to suggest, however, that is has all been plain sailing either. Andy Farrell and his coaches took some time to change the shape of Ireland's game, instilling different habits and thought processes around their decision-making on the field.
They’re the form team, coming into the tournament as grand slam winners. Last time around in 2019, Ireland had won the slam a year early, and started to creak with a couple of defeats to England in the World Cup year.
If Ireland are to break the cycle of quarter-final exits, you’d have to think that this is their year.
It’s Romania up first for the world number 1 side on Saturday (2.30pm Irish time), followed by Tonga and South Africa before a week off, finishing their pool games with a feisty encounter against Six Nations rivals Scotland.
Talisman Johnny Sexton hasn’t played since the Six Nations, so naturally, a lot of the conversation has been around which games he’ll play and how much pitch time he’ll see.
Most of this is because the team captain turned 38 during the summer and there are assumptions around his ability to play consecutive games. Added to this, his importance to the team’s success against tier 1 countries and the risks associated with him playing in very winnable games otherwise.
The 2018 Player of the Year has shown in the past that he can produce a performance without much game time. This is possibly a reflection on his mentality, his knowledge of the game and the seriousness in which he takes every session.
How much game time does he really need to guide Ireland to victory against South Africa?
Playing against Romania is a must as far as I’m concerned. With respect, it’s the easiest game that Ireland will play, against a team that shouldn’t come close to challenging Ireland in terms of physicality and conditioning.
It’s an easy game to give Sexton 45 or 50 minutes to get his eye in and execute the timing of Ireland’s attack strategy with their leader at the helm.
I'd be inclined to keep Sexton in the squad for the second outing in the pool stages
There’s a fear around Sexton playing at all against Tonga because of their physicality, but after missing the last couple of months and having no warm up games, I’d be inclined to keep Sexton in the squad for the second outing in the pool stages.
It might be a case of bringing him off the bench, but his involvement is crucial to recalibrate his involvement around the team.
It might result in playing for three weeks in a row, but the minutes would be managed in a way that mitigates the risk of injury.
You could go through a few seasons with no injuries and you can get a spate of injuries in quick succession. You can’t predict what will happen in a contact sport and you shouldn’t play or select a team with an overriding fear of injuries.
Sexton’s back-up is another discussion point. My biases aside, Jack Crowley has shown that he can lead the team with maturity and has the athleticism to play the game the way Andy Farrell and Mike Catt intend.
Ross Byrne has the ability to kick Ireland to victory and displays a great control of the game in the final third. However, Crowley has stood up to every challenge so far and comes with limited baggage of negative outcomes and emotions when it comes to high pressure situations.
He has proven his worth in steering the Munster ship to long-awaited silverware and I believe he should be given the chance to extend that confidence in his Irish career at a pivotal time.
In terms of other combinations across the opening fixtures, there are a multitude of ways to to manage the squad en route to success.
The first three games are the most discussed because the third one is seen as Ireland’s Everest. South Africa in a World Cup tournament is about as tough as it gets. It doesn’t mean Ireland will disrespect Scotland, far from it. However, with a week break before Scotland, it gives the team some time to reset before another surge in the competition.
Rónan Kelleher and Dan Sheehan will need game time, depending on how much load they can tolerate in the coming weeks. I suspect Herring and Kelleher will play the opening game against Romania, while Dan Sheehan will be saved to play against South Africa.
Sheehan has played an enormous amount of rugby, so I’m not sure he will need to be risked too early. He’s a game changer for Ireland, hopefully he’ll be back to full fitness for Tonga, but more importantly South Africa.
Porter and Furlong could also be put into a world-class bracket when on form, and therefore need to be managed towards the South Africa game and beyond. Caelan Doris also changes the shape of Ireland’s game because of how rounded his talents are. I’m not sure how much he’ll need to play in the Romania game and Jack Conan will need game time once he’s fully fit.
The most important aspect of managing Ireland through this World Cup is that regardless of which quarter final they might get to, both will be played against a form team in the top four nations in the world.
Winning all your pool games is a luxury and will provide confidence and momentum going into the knock-out stages, but one loss shouldn’t be enough to deny Ireland a quarter-final spot, unless Scotland can beat South Africa. The Springboks lost their opening game against New Zealand in 2019 and went on to win the whole thing.
World Cups are tense and pressurised, but Ireland will need calm and strategic heads behind the scenes.
Managing their squad rotation, controlling the narrative surrounding the team and navigating emotions through their wins and/ or losses is going to be crucial if Ireland are destined to go further than ever before.
Andy Farrell is an expert at building that narrative and capturing the squad's imagination on their path. His soft skills paired with ruthlessness has brought the team this far.
His biggest challenge awaits.
Watch France v New Zealand (Friday 8.15pm), Australia v Georgia (Saturday 5pm), England v Argentina (Saturday 8pm) and Japan v Chile (Sunday 12pm) on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player this weekend.
Listen to live coverage of Ireland v Romania (Saturday 2.30pm) on RTÉ Radio 1, and follow live updates of that game, France v New Zealand and South Africa v Scotland (Sunday 4.45pm) on RTÉ Sport Online and the RTÉ News app, with match reports on every game.
Watch live coverage of Ireland v Tonga (Saturday 16 September) and South Africa (Saturday 23 September) on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player, listen on RTÉ Radio 1 or follow our live blogs on RTÉ Sport Online and the RTÉ News app.
