This match was shaping up as something of a hiding to nothing for Ireland at one stage – a match they were expected to win before a do-or-die semi-final against an exceptional Australian team.
That is no longer the case with injuries to Paul O’Connell and Peter O’Mahony, and a one-week ban handed to Sean O’Brien, followed by the late withdrawal of Jonathan Sexton, putting Ireland into real backs-against-the-wall territory.
Alongside that evident weakening of Ireland’s starting team, there is also the added fact that Argentina have become a real force in the game thanks to restructuring their approach and exposure to the best southern hemisphere teams.
Argentina have played New Zealand and South Africa eight times, and Australia seven times, in the last three years in the Rugby Championship. Granted, they have yet to win against the All Blacks, but the margins have usually been modest and the games ultra-competitive.
Against the others, Argentina have fared even better. The meeting with Australia is a one-score game more often than not and Argentina managed to win it for the first time two years ago.
But it is their win over South Africa that really got the world to sit up and take notice. In terms of historical significance, that 37-25 victory in Durban stands alongside any of Ireland’s achievements under Joe Schmidt and is a serious marker of their quality.
This will be a tougher test than what France were able to offer a week ago.
That match was wincingly tough and tested Ireland’s guts, but France were clearly a level below Ireland on the rugby intelligence front.
A few years ago we might have expected a similar type of examination from Argentina, but that is no longer the case.
Graham Henry: a key influence
In part, that is because Argentina have changed markedly since bringing Graham Henry in as a consultant in 2012. The Pumas have had rangy, ball-handling back-rowers and stylish wingers for aeons, but thanks to the New Zealander, those players are now central to the game plan instead of adornments.
On one wing, Juan Imhoff, a hat-trick scorer in that win over the Boks, is as good as they come and as with all successful attacking teams, there is a secondary threat. If Ireland focus too much on shutting down the Argentinean wide game, they leave themselves vulnerable to being opened up down the middle by the zippy out-half Nicolas Sanchez.
The reality is that the entire defensive task became much more difficult when O’Connell, O’Mahony and O’Brien were ruled out. Three leaders and also Ireland’s three best tackling forwards in the open field, Argentina could hardly have hand-picked a better set of absentees.
What Ireland have gained is a more balanced second row with Iain Henderson and Devin Toner a classic complimentary pairing of bruiser and beanpole, and some additional speed in the back row with Chris Henry and Jordi Murphy in the wing-forward positions. The hope must be that they can do enough at the breakdown to make up for that marked weakening of their defensive capacity.
Ireland have plenty of strength in other areas and may look to repeat the superb ball-retention they achieved against France, Argentina can essentially be kept out of the game.
Ireland need breakdown improvement
On that front, managing the referee, Jerome Garces, well is vital. Ireland have been either unable or unwilling to adapt to the latest law interpretations and Garces punished them severely when he handled the Ireland v Italy game. You sense that Ireland must find a better way this time and Henry and Murphy, both smart players, might just surprise us.
The trademark Irish power plays will also be a big factor. Robbie Henshaw now requires serious marking and that opens up opportunities for others. The flipside of Argentina’s extensive exposure to Rugby Championship action over the last three years is a huge dataset for Schmidt and his analysts to mine.
Ireland’s investment in squad-building may also continue to pay off. Madigan played vital minutes against Argentina in both Tests last summer, scoring a key try with a smartly executed sidestep in the second while Henderson started a match alongside Toner in the second row.
And while Ireland are without three key men in the pack, Argentina have also been forced down the depth chart in certain areas. Marcelo Bosch is the most notable absentee, but they are also without tighthead Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro (leg muscle tear) and lock Mariano Galarza (banned). Juan Manuel Leguizamon, who would likely have been picked on the bench, is also not fit to play.
Youth and inexperience in places
They also have notably inexperienced players in several positions with centre Matias Moroni (24), wing Santiago Cordero (21) and second row Guido Petti (20) all young and with single-figure cap totals.
Those young backs in particular can expect to see plenty of action while the Irish scrum should have enough power and nous to cope with Argentina’s ‘Bajada’ (Descent) method and quite possibly do a bit of damage themselves.
Against that, it should be to Argentina’s advantage that they have been able to rest their big players as they faced a worn-out Namibia in their last pool game, and have actually had ten days off since then. Ireland – Pool winners it should be recalled - would certainly swap being battle hardened for that particular edge.
The big picture is that the absentees have turned this fixture on its head with those missing forwards in particular a boost to Argentina’s chances of running Ireland ragged out wide. Ireland need the likes of Jamie Heaslip and Rory Best to deliver career performances.
Believe in Joe? The game plan is unlikely to be lacking, but with their talismanic figures ruled out, Ireland’s emerging generation may just get this done if they believe in themselves.
Prediction: Ireland 23-20 Argentina.
Ireland: R Kearney; T Bowe, K Earls, R Henshaw, D Kearney; I Madigan, C Murray; C Healy, R Best, M Ross; D Toner, I Henderson; J Murphy, C Henry, J Heaslip.
Replacements: R Strauss, J McGrath, N White, D Ryan, R Ruddock, E Reddan, P Jackson, L Fitzgerald.
Argentina Tuculet; Cordero, Moroni, Hernández, Imhoff; Sánchez, Landajo; Senatore, Fernández Lobbe, Matera, Lavanini, Petti, Herrera, Creevy (capt), Ayerza.
Replacements Montoya, Noguera, Orlandi, Alemanno, Isa, Cubelli, De La Fuente, González Amorosino.
Referee: Jerome Garces (France).
