I spent the last week in Paris with Ronan O’Gara as we are taking our French Pro Licence coaching course together at the French Federation de Rugby base in Marcoussis.
It was the fourth week we have spent up there and there was something different about it this time; a noticeable spring in the step of the French rugby people ahead of today's meeting with Ireland.
They know that France have not beaten us in four attempts under Phillipe Saint-André.
But they also know that they have gotten two draws and taken two relatively narrow losses in those four games
That despite all Ireland’s talk about ‘High Performance Culture’ detail, systems and game plans.
The French thinking is that we have not been much better than them and that they will be a lot better than their Six Nations form.
They also don’t see their Six Nations performances as an accurate indicator of their real ability as they are never in good shape physically during it because of the toughness of the Top 14.
Historically, they have always performed well at World Cups as they have the same preparation as everyone else and no Top 14 demands on their squad.
Physically, they think they will be in a better place than usual against Ireland. They also know that Ireland have never gotten past the quarter-final at the World Cup while France are three-time finalists.
These are their words, not mine.
Does it matter? History is one thing but when I analyse France objectively in terms of what they have produced in this tournament, my feeling is that they have not been overly impressive.
In the warm-up matches they put together a very strong first 60 minutes against England before taking the foot off the pedal and allowing them back into the match. They held on to win 25-20. That form has taken a blow given how poor England have been.
"Dulin and Nakaitaci are excellent runners and counter-attackers but they are not comfortable under the high ball"
Against Italy, they were okay, while they were sloppy against Romania and Canada. Their individual talent got them the scores they needed.
In contrast, Ireland were very efficient against Canada and Romania before struggling against Italy. The senior Irish players were very honest afterwards about the quality of their play.
Ireland will be much more focussed this week.
There has been a fair bit of chat about secret game plans hatched up in Carton House and kept under wraps for this match.
Gameplan: powerplays, lineout and kicking
The reality is that Ireland’s core game plan has not changed much since last November and it is unlikely to be drastically different for this match. This weekend is not about pulling rabbits from hats, it is about being able to execute the things you do best really well.
A big match does not mean you should try to become something you are not.
That does not mean Ireland won’t produce a big performance or a few surprises. We will see a few ‘powerplays’ aimed at exploiting specific weaknesses in the French defensive system. It may be the case that Ireland have been showing certain ‘looks’ in attack up to now to try to entice France into doing something that will create space in an unexpected area.
Most moves will have three or four options or variations within them and it is these variations that will be key.
For me, one good area to target is close to the French ruck.
The French tend to be a bit slow getting set in that area and are not very detailed in terms of the roles of the first two defenders either side of the breakdown. Don’t be surprised if Ireland look to attack this area with a specially designed two or three phase sequence.
A lot depends on getting the set piece right.
Our lineout has been functioning very well but our maul has not worked and that will be a key area for us in both attack and defence. We are not as big as the French in the pack so we need to be technically very sound with really good protection of the ball carrier and low body positions.
Toner: stopping the French maul
One reason Devin Toner got the nod over Iain Henderson is that he gives us a way to stop what has been a very effective French maul by contesting for the ball in the air. Peter O’Mahony is very good at the front on opposition throws and we now have O’Connell and Toner to cut off the middle and the back.
Ireland will have to use their wits as well – little tactics like not engaging the maul and tackling the ball carrier at the rear or getting an accidental offside call could be vital. They have to get it right every time as once that French maul gets started it can then be very hard to stop it legally.
The kicking game is another key. I think it is an area where France are vulnerable to a well-executed plan.
Scott Spedding is good Top 14 player but I am not sure that he is a top class international full-back. His positioning can be suspect and I expect Sexton and Rob Kearney to hurt France with long diagonal kicks in behind him, particularly off rucks in the middle of the pitch.
Kicking game a key for Ireland
Ireland will also use Conor Murray to target Brice Dulin and Noa Nakaitaci with box kicks and Ireland have players in Dave Kearney and Tommy Bowe who can win those 50/50 balls.
Dulin and Nakaitaci are excellent runners and counter-attackers but they are not comfortable under the high ball. Granted, Dulin has played most of his rugby at 15 but attacking a ball in the middle of the field is very different to fielding a box kick close to the touchline.
So from Ireland, we can expect powerplays, a big lineout effort and a good kicking game.
What about France?
I don’t actually think they will have a very detailed game plan for us. The basic idea will be to out-muscle us and play the game in our half.
They do not have a complex kicking game, though Ireland will know that Sebastien Tillous-Borde will try and take some of the pressure off Freddie Michalak by taking responsibility for a lot of it.
Michalak v Sexton
Any what about Michalak?
In France (16 pages on the match in Midi on Friday), this is being touted as the Sexton v Michalak match. Michalak is much maligned in Ireland but he is a very capable out-half (or scrum-half if needed). ‘Flaky Freddie’ is a nickname that has been attached to him but he has had an incredible career and is one of the few Northern Hemisphere players to have played Super Rugby.
He plays on instinct, regularly mixing the sublime with the ridiculous, and does not follow a strict structure or pattern. That makes him harder to analyse but it can also work against him and you can be sure that Ireland will look to put him under serious pressure.
The keys are to force him away from his support and deny him time on the ball.
Ireland must also understand what the French centres want to do. They like to get the ball deep and use whatever combination of speed, size and deceptiveness.
They are key men and that means Ireland’s outside-centre is a hugely important. I think that selecting Keith Earls is a positive choice by Ireland.
The French will try and target him, not because he is a poor tackler but because that is their mindset when they see a slighter player. I think he will actually cause them problems with his defence because he is so quick and has great footwork.
He could be a really influential player in this match.
The final factor is the ref. I think Nigel Owens is a good one for us as he is very consistent and despite a few blips in recent matches I think we have a more disciplined side than them
But it will be incredibly tight and could come to a penalty here or there.
I think we can nick it.
