Team selection is both an art and a science.
For Ireland, Joe Schmidt and his team would have started planning for this tournament at least 12 months ago. The goal would have been to hit peak physical condition around now and maintain that for as long as possible through the rest of the competition.
It is not about hitting peak fitness in pre-season and maintaining it for as long as you can. Everyone has different needs and body shapes. There are times of total rest, ‘download’ weeks when players will work hard but also play, and times when training workload is maximised again.
All with the goal of peaking at the most important time.
It has all gone to plan so far – not something that can be said for all the Tier 1 teams. Ireland have been able to rotate the team while dealing with weaker opposition.
Italy this weekend are not the threat we thought they might be when the draw was made. I will analyse France and their key individuals in detail next week but there is honestly not much point in spending much time doing that with Italy.
They are a little bit lost in how and what they are trying to achieve.
The Irish coaches and players this week talked about the Italian scrum but even that is not as relevant as it was three or four years ago.
In fact, I think Ireland will have the upper hand there. They have highly experienced, world-class scrummagers while Italy are prone to giving away penalties as they try to force turnovers.
The positive is that our key scrummagers will be tested before the France game as they have a strong tighthead in Rabah Slimani and can be very destructive.
I think the selected XV is close to Ireland’s best but that we will see a few players back in the starting team next week. The wing selection will be really tough, especially if Tommy Bowe backs up his strong performance against Romania with another good one.
Cian Healy is on the bench and is still on the comeback trail. At the stage he is at, muscle fatigue and soreness can kick in when you put in a long shift. Another short block this week should be perfect. I do think he will start against Slimani next week.
Payne has respect of his peers
There has been a bit of debate in some circles around the performances of Jared Payne at 13.
Personally, I think the critics are being too harsh. Payne is a better full-back than he is a centre but he is a very good 13 and a brilliant all-round rugby player. One thing to note is that his peers speak really highly of him. That’s always a great reference.
When you look at what the Irish backline are trying to do under Schmidt, a player with Payne's footballing ability, physical presence and communication skills adds a huge amount.
Earls and Fitzgerald give us good depth but the long-term plan has been for Robbie Henshaw and Payne to be our centres and if he recovers I think that is what we’ll see against France next week.
Late, reactive changes are risky. Some players gel very quickly but others take longer and the interactions and intricacies involved mean centre is not a place for just slotting people in and out.
"I wonder if coaches show footage of the opposition to help their players or to tick that box for themselves"
Henshaw and Payne are not Jason Little and Tim Horan or Gordon D’Arcy and Brian O’Driscoll, but they have enough match experience together for their partnership to be a factor in selection.
Selection is a subject that has attracted a lot of debate.
For me personally, the breakdown of how it works is probably around 80% about ‘us’, 20% about ‘them’. At Grenoble, it’s important to focus on our form and quality and on how we want to play.
That approach is not typical in France. A lot of clubs are obsessed with showing their players lots of footage of the opposition and what they have done so far that season.
My attitude is that if there is something out of the ordinary, we need to look at that and break down in detail how we will deal with it. My players also need to know the opposition’s general style of play and shape.
But we also need to have massive confidence in ourselves and what we do. Sometimes I wonder if coaches show footage of the opposition to help their players or to tick that box for themselves.
Selection has been the talking point of the week as it has been about the game of last weekend: England’s loss to Wales. England must be still trying to figure out how they lost as they were so comfortable for most of the match.
England: Foundation will be tested
The pressure is on now and all the work that Stuart Lancaster has put into developing leadership and culture will either pay off or melt away against Australia.
It is in these crisis moments that you need your foundation.
You have to credit Wales. They did incredibly well to stay resilient. Leaders – the likes of Dan Biggar, Alun-Wyn Jones and Sam Warburton – kept them going brilliantly, and their fitness kicked in over the last 10 minutes.
"People like to think that Union is a more complex game and that ‘Leaguies’ can’t understand or adapt to it."
I was surprised to see such detailed and over the top criticism of Sam Burgess in the Irish press.
If you watch the match again, Burgess was solid and England were in control while he was on the field. It only started to go pear shaped when Burgess was replaced and England had George Ford and Owen Farrell at 10 and 12.
What about the selection call?
Burgess was picked to deal with the threat of Jamie Roberts and a Welsh side that plays a direct style of rugby. But there are other factors as well. In rugby we always speak about players that have leadership, motivational qualities or just big ‘presence’ in a dressing room and how invaluable that is.
He is that kind of player. He gets respect and has the the mentality and aura of a winner. In the past, League converts like Andy Farrell, Jason Robinson and Shaun Edwards (as a coach) have had it too.
I do wonder if people being especially harsh on Burgess because he is a convert and if there is an element of snobbery. People like to think that Union is a more complex game and that ‘Leaguies’ can’t understand or adapt to it.
In my opinion, that is bull.
There are technical differences to the set piece and the ruck but those things can be learned and the reality is that League players’ skills sets are often more rounded.
Outstanding athletes can transfer quickly into other sports. Look at Israel Folau, who was able to play professional AFL, Rugby League and Union, or Jarryd Hayne who was a star in the NRL and is now on the roster in the NFL with the San Francisco 49ers and has attracted huge attention in the US.
If we are going to slate players based on 70 or so decent individual minutes, there won’t be enough pundits or newspaper columns to cover the below average performances each week.
In any case, I expect a comprehensive win against Italy before Ireland’s ‘real’ Rugby World Cup starts next week against a French side that are under-performing but always have one big sting in them.
