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Why not...
Surprising to say it, but Ireland arrive at this Rugby World Cup with reasonable expectations.
Instead of inflating a hype-bubble, the achievements of the last two seasons under Joe Schmidt have given us perspective. There is a now better understanding within Irish rugby of just how tough it is to consistently compete with the best.
So instead of loose talk about possibly winning this tournament, the sense is that if the stars align, Ireland have a good chance of getting into the last four.
And then?
Who knows. A second mini-tournament begins at the semi-final stage and as France showed last time and England the time before, the only thing that counts is getting into that last four.
There are no points given for style.
For Joe Schmidt, the task now is to manage both the minds and the bodies of his entire squad.
The average Irish rugby player has not always been noted for his psychological strength, typically producing his best on the days when the omens are right, the breakfast has gone down well and the scale of the task is just right.
Big victories can be over-celebrated, while reversals are taken too much to heart.
That tendency has been less apparent under Schmidt who, in parallel with making Ireland better in how they play the game, has forced them to become mentally smarter.
Average performances in the warm-ups, or indeed in this fixture against Canada or the next against Romania, are far less likely to engender the bouts of depression, self-doubt or introspection that has afflicted Ireland at previous Rugby World Cups.
And while it is still a month away, a win over France in the likely pool decider is perhaps less likely to produce the wild swing in expectations that the surprise victory against Australia resulted in four years ago.
But even though Ireland are a while away yet from needing to produce their best, a tick upward in performance against Canada would be welcome.
The top-level attacking plays and even line-out changes are likely to be kept under wraps – a dangerous but necessary gambit in this era of ever more sophisticated video analysis. But the expectation is that there will be better organisation in the back-line, more aggression at the breakdown, and a lift in urgency and accuracy.
Good ‘mapping’ has been Schmidt’s hallmark and it has been notable by its almost total absence over the last four matches.
The focus will remain on individual performances.
Generally, there is still a sense of fluency in the team selection – a feeling that form will be rewarded. Dave Kearney is a prime example, first breaking into the squad and now keeping his place in the starting XV. Tommy Bowe has gone in the other direction.
Only Mike Ross, Paul O'Connell, Sean O'Brien and the half-backs can be certain that their places are safe, however, Jamie Heaslip and Rob Kearney are not far off, while Robbie Henshaw and Cian Healy might also be considered in the same category when fully fit. But that means that there is at least a measure of doubt about the remaining six positions.
Of the team to play Canada, Simon Zebo, Luke Fitzgerald, Keith Earls and Dave Kearney know that there are probably only two places up for grabs between the four of them, while Bowe must also still be in the reckoning despite an apparent loss of form.
In the pack, Iain Henderson will be aware that he needs to continue to demand selection with physically imposing play in the loose to keep set-piece specialist Devin Toner out of the side. The back-row is also potentially changeable with Henderson capable of slotting in at six, a move which would allow either Toner or the abrasive Donnacha Ryan to come into the starting team. Chris Henry could also come into the reckoning very quickly.
What of Canada? The reality is that this squad has very little chance of matching the level of competitiveness they showed at their strongest in the 1991 or 1995 tournaments.
Back then, Canada had a genuinely top-drawer out-half in Gareth Rees and a teak-tough pack led by Al Charron, which was capable of mixing it with the likes of South Africa and France.
In 2015, Canada must cope with the absence of captain and openside Tyler Ardron and full-back Harry Jones, although both players are likely to be available for next week’s meeting with Italy. Canada may be targeting that game over this one as the best chance of doing something remarkable.
But Ireland can expect no quarter to be asked for nor given against a pack led by O’Connell’s old sparring partner Jamie Cudmore, while behind the scrum, DTH Van Der Merwe is the pick of the Canadian backs and as Pro12 watchers will know more, than a handful.
Canada will be fired up by playing on the world stage and with three unattached players in their starting team and the eyes of the rugby world on them, there is no shortage of incentive.
But the reality is that there is a massive gulf in ability and experience between these two sides.
There should be plenty of space for Ireland’s attackers out wide, with the stylish Jared Payne well placed at outside-centre to show off his more subtle skills.
As a team, Ireland are unlikely to repeat the poor discipline and tendency to back-chat that has been a feature of the warm-ups.
A smart, professional display should be more than enough for Ireland to run out easy winners.
RWC Prediction: Ireland 40-3 Canada
Ireland: Rob Kearney; Dave Kearney, Jared Payne, Luke Fitzgerald, Keith Earls; Jonathan Sexton, Conor Murray; Jack McGrath, Rory Best, Mike Ross; Iain Henderson, Paul O’Connell (capt); Peter O’Mahony, Sean O’Brien, Jamie Heaslip.
Replacements: Sean Cronin, Cian Healy, Nathan White, Donnacha Ryan, Chris Henry, Eoin Reddan, Ian Madigan, Simon Zebo.
Canada: Matt Evans, Jeff Hassler, Ciaran Hearn, Nick Blevins, DTH Van Der Merwe, Nathan Hirayama, Gordon McRorie, Aaron Carpenter, John Moonlight, Kyle Gilmour, Jamie Cudmore (captain), Brett Beukeboom, Doug Wooldridge, Ray Barkwill, Hubert Buydens.
Replacements: Benoit Piffero, Djustics Sears-Duru, Andrew Tiedemann, Jebb Sinclair, Richard Thorpe, Phil Mack, Liam Underwood, Conor Trainor.
Referee: Glen Jackson (New Zealand).