Joe Schmidt will reveal his key Rugby World Cup 2015 squad decisions on Sunday when he names his 31-man squad.
The Ireland head coach will have had a third warm-up match to base his choices on at that stage but the chances of there being many big surprises are low. Unlike England and Stuart Lancaster, there simply isn’t the same pressure at the margins of the Irish set-up. There will be no Luther Burrell or Danny Cipriani figure left out.
More pressing than the marginal calls at the edge of the group is the need to engineer a match-day squad and a style capable of taking Ireland all the way. Ireland, bookies odds aside, will require a truly extraordinary run to even reach the final. Their chances of embarking on the same will be strongly influenced by Schmidt’s approach to these key questions.
Stick with the winning formula or look to build on it
Joe Schmidt’s Ireland have thrived on a strong set-piece, excellent kicking game and those beautifully scripted ‘powerplays’.
The pieces compliment each other nicely, allowing Schmidt to select set-piece specialists to deliver the ball and use scripted plays to create chances within two or three phases of having done so. Ireland also have a mean ‘ground and pound’ game when they get within striking distance of the line and can get on top with a high tempo, particularly early in games.
But there is no doubt that when compared to the very best, Ireland have limitations and that these tend to become more apparent as matches wear on.
Ireland have struggled in multi-phase play against bigger and more athletic sides, particularly between the 22s. Vulnerable players are picked off too easily in defence while, in attack, Ireland lack the flair and athleticism to create chances once the window for those scripted plays has closed.
So, does Schmidt stick with the current plan and try to improve and refine it or does he shoot for the stars and aim to get his more athletic players on the field more often? Doing so would mean reducing minutes for set-piece specialists Mike Ross and Devin Toner.
Schmidt tasked forwards coach Simon Easterby with coming up with a more sophisticated lineout and that is another indicator that he hopes to reduce the reliance on Toner’s height. That could be good news for Iain Henderson and Donnacha Ryan.
Schmidt is wily enough to figure that the odds of riding the existing platform as far as possible are not that bad. But we may just see an Ireland with a few more tricks up their sleeve by the time the big matches against roll around.
Getting it right in the outside backs
Ireland’s backs have been efficient and the scripted plays have produced superb tries on occasion. But the highlights reel is relatively bare. Ireland simply don’t have an Israel Folau or Julian Savea in their ranks and Schmidt’s task is to find a way to bring out the best in a group that is physically over-matched compared to the best.
Again, there are options. In this case, it is less about the style Ireland want to play and more about finding a mix that can do the basics and deploy flair from time to time as well.
There is no credible alternative to Rob Kearney at full-back and while other teams will benefit from having a second playmaker at 15, the Leinster man brings plenty of virtues to the table.
In front of Kearney, Robbie Henshaw is a certain starter in the centre and could theoretically play at either 12 or 13. Alongside him, Jared Payne is the incumbent and having used him when fit and available so far, it looks like Schmidt will stick with that combination. Payne has flair and timing with ball in hand, though it has yet to show itself in the Irish jersey, and the competition doesn’t use the ball as intelligently.
Those wing picks are also tricky. Of all the Irish options, Tommy Bowe is the only power-runner of true world class. Capable of beating a man and retaining his speed, he is a certainty to start on the right.
On the other wing, Andrew Trimble also has size and power, though he is just short of a step when it comes to pace. But Trimble can play to the gameplan, contests in the air as well as anyone in the Irish team and reads the game superbly.
Simon Zebo and Luke Fitzgerald bring a type of different threat. Zebo has style and of all the Irish backs can produce ‘X-Factor’ moments while Fitzgerald has the happy knack of playing his best rugby on the big days. Trimble may just get the nod.
Who to use as back-up to Jonny Sexton
It’s between Ian Madigan and Paddy Jackson. Jackson rarely makes errors, kicks well from the hand and can run a backline like clockwork - though he doesn’t present much threat himself when carrying. In contrast, Madigan has an eye for a gap and can improvise and step his way into good situations.
Madigan can also make errors and has been caught out in defence in key situations, particularly down the wide channels. But if Ireland are behind and trying to close a gap he may be the more likely to deliver something special. He is also, usually, a better goalkicker and that could just shade it in his favour.
However, Jackson’s ability to manage a structured game from the first minute may see him make the squad with a view to limiting the amount of time Jonny Sexton plays.
How many scrum-halves to bring
Like most other coaches, Joe Schmidt has some big decisions to make and it is not only about picking the best players. Each coach can also take risks in certain areas if they want to squeeze an extra backline player or forward onto the plane.
Either Isaac Boss or Kieran Marmion could travel as back-ups to Conor Murray and Eoin Reddan but Schmidt could also opt to only bring two, with the caveat that Ireland can bring an additional player in if there is an injury.
The issue is that if a player is unavailable for a minor bump or bruise and misses one or two matches, he can’t be taken out of the squad and brought back in again. That is likely to force Schmidt to bring three number nines and look to limit the amount of minutes Murray and Reddan are on the pitch.
The reality is that Ireland can field a strong-looking 31-man squad without taking risks at scrum-half or hooker and Schmidt is likely to go with an orthodox three of each.
