by Tadhg Peavoy
The greatest rugby nation in the world is under massive pressure to win the game’s holy grail after five botched Rugby World Cup attempts; that quest re-commences with a battle against South Sea hardmen Tonga.
<notforsyndication>Watch New Zealand v Tonga live on RTÉ 2 and RTÉ.ie (RoI only) from 8.30am, and get the latest updates, stats and analysis live with the RTÉ.ie/sport tracker. Kick-off Friday 9 September at 9am.</notforsyndication>
The All Blacks' sole Rugby World Cup title was won in their own backyard in 1987. Since then, they have crashed out three times in the semi-finals, once – most recently – in the quarter-finals and have also lost the 1995 Rugby World Cup final.
Chokers is the tag that now dogs rugby’s most famous sons at every RWC they appear at.
While defeat to Tonga is more or less unthinkable, this opening match will set down a marker for the All Blacks to come out and play the kind of rugby their, by turns, adoring and hating public demands.
Graham Henry’s boys will meet fire-with-fire when it comes to taking on the behemoth Tongan pack. Out back, the 1987 RWC winners will recycle ferociously in an attempt to eliminate the kind of broken field running play where Tonga can do their most damage.
The New Zealand line-up reads like an All-Star team of modern-day rugby and weaknesses are not readily apparent. The twin towers of the team are openside flanker Richie McCaw and out-half Dan Carter.
McCaw has been the most consistent forward in Test-match rugby for the last decade. Superb at gaining possession at the breakdown, fast in the loose, with a massive hand-off and a beastly tackle: he is the blueprint for the perfect loose forward.
Carter is the best out-half in the world. His tactical kicking is better than Ronan O’Gara’s, his place-kicking is up there with Jonny Wilkinson’s and his running rugby is as good as Quade Cooper’s. There is no weakness to his game, and with him starting, New Zealand will always have a chance.
The rest of the team is similarly impressive, with the pack head and shoulders above every other pack in the world - including South Africa and England. Victor Vito starts at number 8 for the All Blacks in place of the injured Kieran Read – a man the All Blacks will no doubt miss.
An area Tonga may attempt to target is right wing, where the relatively inexperienced Richard Kahui will start. That could be the focus of Tongan attack in the hope they can put him under pressure early and force some mistakes under the high ball or with missed tackles.
Tonga coach Isitolo Maka has already stated that his side will not attempt to change their game plan before facing New Zealand and will continue with their cavalier approach.
Maka said: "I don't think we can compete with the All Blacks the way Australia and South Africa did. We have our own strengths and we're going to play to them."
The South Sea Islanders will hope to disrupt the All Blacks patterns by offloading at every opportunity and attempt to cut the shape of the game to pieces – in turn creating unexpected space to exploit.
They will also target the scrum as an area to win penalties and will hope to hammer their opponents in the set-piece every chance that they get.
While Finau Maka is the captain and talisman of this team, the real star for Tonga at the RWC is likely to be Soane Tonga'uiha.
The Northampton prop is coming off the back of a sensational season with his club. The prop was always like a raging bull when running at opposition defences, but he’s added to his set-piece game of late and is now regarded as one of the best scrummagers in the world.
These two skills allow him to win penalties galore at scrum-time and score tries in the manner of an outside back. He will target this match as a chance to shine on the world stage.
Also, keep an eye out for 26-year-old Fetu’u Vainikolo. The former Highlanders winger is on the books at Connacht this year. Vainikolo is not included in the matchday squad for the New Zealand match, but will feature for Tonga later in the tournament.
Tonga have never made it out of the pool stages of a RWC and are highly unlikely to do it this time. But, they ran South Africa close in 2007, only losing 30-25, and only lost 27-20 to Wales in 2003. They will be attempting for a similar result against the All Blacks.
The teams first met in a RWC clash in Pool B in 1999, when New Zealand won 45-9. The sides met again in Pool D in 2003, with New Zealand prevailing far more easily 91-7.
Tonga will be boosted by the presence of a massive fan base in Auckland, who will no doubt roar on their men for the duration of their encounter with the RWC 2011 hosts.
Bear in mind that Tonga lost 102-0 to New Zealand in 2000 and you’ll get an idea of how bad things have gone in the past. They’ll never let that happen this time though and will battle as though their lives depended on it. However, realistically this will be a damage-limitation exercise for Tonga.
New Zealand’s Rugby World Cup history:
1987: final win over France: 29-9
1991: semi-final defeat to Australia: 16-6
1995: final defeat to South Africa: 15-12
1999: semi-final defeat to France: 43-31
2003: semi-final defeat to Australia: 22-10
2007: quarter-final defeat to France: 20-18
