by Brendan Cole
With tradition, Tri-Nations status and a host of household names in their line-up, South Africa are heavily favoured to claim a place in the Rugby World Cup 2007 decider by winning Sunday evening’s semi-final against Argentina. Against them are a Pumas side that have – France’s shock win against New Zealand aside – been the story of the tournament so far.
The conventional wisdom is that South Africa will win if both sides play to form, but after struggling to dominate Samoa and, even more so Tonga, in Pool A and then only barely managing to scrape past Fiji in the quarter-final, the suspicion their lofty position in the market is based on reputation rather than actual achievement is hard to shake. The reality is that the Springboks have barely been tested so far, and that they have struggled even when faced with relatively moderate opposition.
Only once, when demolishing England by 36-0 – have they looked the part of RWC winners, but that match may very well turn out to have been an anomaly. England, a moderate side in any case, were without Jonny Wilkinson at out-half and played worse than for many a year. The ‘0’ end of the scoreline would indicate that South Africa’s defence is tight, but unlike Argentina they have conceded try after try in their games so far. The form of Argentina – with victories over high quality ‘structured’ rugby sides in France and Ireland – is more impressive.
The greatest challenge for South Africa may well be that they will face a proper half-back pairing for the first time at RWC 2007. Juan Martin Hernandez and Agustin Pichot have been simply awesome for the Pumas. Pichot’s tap tackle on Cedric Heymans in the opening minute of France v Argentina set the tone not only for the match but for the tournament, while Hernandez combination of booming kicks, swashbuckling running and stellar fielding of the high ball have re-defined the out-half role. Instead of the protected, ‘behind the pack’ style favourer elsewhere, he has been his team’s focal point; it is possibly the case that South Africa will not have faced a player of his quality before.
Opposite them are the South African duo of Fourie du Preez and Butch James. Du Preez has been perhaps South Africa’s best player at scrum-half and is a quality player but it would be a surprise to see a team with James at out-half lift the Webb Ellis trophy. South Africa’s best hope may, in fact, be in Francois Steyn at 12. Richly talented, confident to a fault and capable of big plays, both he and Hernandez have that rare individualistic quality that can win or lose matches.
The lineout has been mentioned as a strength for the Boks but the bankruptcy of the ‘lineout theory’ of international rugby union – which holds that the out of touch battle is definitive as it is a true contest for possession - has been proved wrong time and again at RWC 2007. As England proved against Australia, the scrum and breakdown are the bedrock on which the other events on the rugby pitch depend. With that being the case, it may be that if Argentina can stand up to the Schalk Burger led back row in the fringes and gain parity in the tight five battle, their extra quality in the 9-10 could prove decisive. Argentina by a narrow margin.
