It may be called the Ebor Festival, but the eponymous handicap can't lay claim to occupying the mantle as the four-day meeting’s most prestigious race.
That honour normally falls to the Juddmonte International. With a long odds-on favourite in Thursday’s Yorkshire Oaks and Friday’s Nunthorpe Stakes comprising a field lacking a standout sprinter, it’s this afternoon’s feature that is again shaping up as the race of the week.
Eclipse winner Delacroix and runner-up Ombudsman dominate the market. There was just a neck to split the pair at Sandown and they are disputing favouritism here.
An argument can be made that it’s Delacroix who should be the clear favourite. Ryan Moore’s mount came from a most unpromising position, in a slowly run race, after enduring a troublesome passage and still managed to get his head in front in the shadow of the post in Esher.
While the time of the race was unexceptional, Delacroix clocked a scorching final furlong, and that warrants a significant upgrade.
Now for the caveats, and there are a few of them for a horse vying for top spot in the betting.
Of Delacroix’s three other runs this term, two of them came over 10 furlongs at Leopardstown and the other was his dismal Derby run, where he was somehow sent off favourite, based on his connections and little else.
Disregard that Epsom run. Delacroix has a very impressive engine, but his chassis is not one of a Derby winner. His stride is far too short and his stride rate far too high to have had a leading chance in a Classic over 12 furlongs. This is likely his optimal trip, but his rider has previously intimated that he feels more like a miler than a 12-furlong horse.
While Delacroix’s first two runs of the season at Leopardstown resulted in visually striking victories, they might not be quite as impressive as they seemed at the time.
On the first of those runs, Delacroix was only a smidgeon faster in the closing stages of a steadily run affair than runner-up and subsequent dual Derby winner Lambourn.
Delacroix remains shrouded in a degree of mystery, but we know exactly what Lambourn is, namely a middle-distance horse who is stamina-laden and who will certainly stay further, if required to do so.
Lambourn isn’t an animal that quickens, he lengthens and he grinds and there is an attritional quality to how he wears down his opponents. It took two very aggressive rides to score those Derby victories.
Delacroix’s (above) second start of the campaign in the Leopardstown Derby Trial wasn’t totally satisfactory either.
In a race run at an even more sedate pace than his seasonal reappearance, Delacroix readily outpaced Tennessee Stud, who is basically in the same mould but a slightly inferior version of Lambourn.
Runner-up Purview, making his first start of the year, was slightly quicker than Delacroix over the last three furlongs.
That run earned Dermot Weld’s charge plenty of plaudits, but two subsequent outings have yielded two defeats.
One other potential negative for both Delacroix and Ombudsman from Eclipse is the proximity of Camille Pissarro.
The fourth-place finisher at Sandown sustained a career-ending injury during the contest, with that hairline fracture to a fetlock hardly aiding his cause.
Camille Pissarro also came from well back off a moderate gallop that day, not ideal for a horse that would prefer a stronger pace over the trip.
Prior to his Sandown run, he landed the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly. However, his rider got his fractions pretty much spot on that day, and the form of that race doesn’t look particularly strong for the grade.
If Ombudsman is sent off favourite, it’s likely because he could just be a shade more versatile than his chief market rival and his form is easier to interpret.
John and Thady Gosden’s charge was beaten by Almaqam on his seasonal reappearance, but it was a perfectly respectable reintroduction against a race-fit rival.
Ombudsman then enjoyed his career zenith when scoring in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot. He won impressively that day, but he was a beneficiary of sitting well off a fast early pace.
Perhaps it’s written in the stars that See The Fire (above) scores here. It would be a happy coincidence for trainer Andrew Balding if the daughter of Sea The Stars and Arabian Queen could emulate her parents by claiming this Group One.
See The Fire loves it on the Knavesmire and two of her three career victories have come here.
She claimed the Group Three Strensall Stakes at last year’s Ebor meeting with swift closing sectionals off a slow early pace.
Her win in the Group Two Middleton Stakes this year was even more emphatic, scoring by 12 yawning lengths. However, she was favourably placed in rear off an unsustainable early gallop.
Danon Decile’s summer has been focused on this one contest. A winner of last season’s Japanese Derby, the son of Epiphaneia added a second Group One to his CV with victory in the Sheema Classic in April.
Racing in Japan is very different to the major jurisdictions in Europe. For a start, there are no six-runner Group One contests. All their top races are numerically strong. Their middle-distance stars meet over distances ranging from 10 furlongs to two miles, while we would regard the latter contests as the preserve of stayers.
Their foreign raiders have been successful all over the globe, even if they’ve yet to land the holy grail that is the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
As a population of horses, fast ground does seem a prerequisite to many of their best horses, which makes sense. They’re bred that way as the majority of Japanese turf races take place on such a surface. Danon Decile should get his optimal ground conditions this afternoon, if not his optimal trip.
That Sheema Classic win came over 12 furlongs, but the race turned into a test of speed. Calandagan, who admittedly wasn’t quite so well positioned as the winner, was among Danon Decile’s (above) victims that day, and we know that he’d be disputing favouritism had he turned up here.
The dark horse in the field has to be Francis-Henri Graffard’s Daryz, who only made his racecourse debut in April.
His form is vastly inferior to the four horses ahead of him in the betting, with his sectional times only painting him in a slightly more favourable light, but there is reason to think he’s open to the major improvement required to figure in this company.
Daryz has shown greenness in three of his runs to date, only really exhibiting professionalism last time out at Saint-Cloud. That was a weak Group Two contest, and in keeping with his earlier victories, the time was modest. However, there was the distinct sense that his superiority was far greater than a winning margin of three-quarters of a length might imply.
With data now dictating betting markets, does backing a horse such as Daryz based on nebulous intangibles constitute an act of blind faith? Perhaps not.
Daryz's pedigree suggests he wants fast ground, a strong pace and possibly 12 furlongs to bring out the best in him.
He won’t get the chance to race at 12 furlongs this afternoon, but the ground will suit him ideally and he’ll contest a race that at least won’t be run at a crawl for the first time in his life.
That brings us to the final runner in the field in the form of supplemented pacemaker Birr Castle, who could just decide this contest, while running unplaced.
Getting pacemaking duties just right isn’t easy. It’s not just a matter of getting to the front and leading the field along. Go too fast, and the pacemaker is often ignored, go too slow, and the pacemaker fills the role in name only.
York is a flat course, meaning many consider it a speed-favouring track, but the field often get racing quite a way from home over this distance.
In a slowly run affair, we could well see a repeat of the Eclipse, with Ombudsman and Delacroix performing as the market suggests they will run, while See The Fire can also go well at a track she loves.
However, if Birr Castle can inject proper pace into the contest, it’s the long-striding pair of Danon Decile and Daryz that could threaten an upset at far bigger odds, with preference (just) for the latter in a market that looks a little lopsided.
This trip may be shorter than ideal for both, but that didn’t stop two genuine 12-furlong horses in City Of Troy and Calandagan fighting out the finish of last year’s renewal.
Verdict:
1 DARYZ
2 Danon Decile
