The JCB Triumph Hurdle opens proceedings on the final day of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival.
East India Dock, Lulamba and Hello Neighbour head the market and are likely to fight out the finish. All three look priced correctly.
Gibbs Island, Sainte Lucie and Place De La Nation are possibly outsiders worth considering.
Gibbs Island was visually impressive in his win last time out and is likely open to improvement, but the time and form of that contest is very ordinary.
Sainte Lucie needs to settle better and could do with rain at Prestbury Park, while Place De La Nation didn't run a race devoid of promise on his stable debut for Willie Mullins.
Kargese deserves her place as market leader in the William Hill County Handicap Hurdle and boasts excellent form. If she settles and doesn't pull as hard as she normally does, she's the most likely winner, but that proviso is far from a given. The less demanding Old Course, in use on the first two days of the Festival, would suit her better.
Stablemates Absurde and Ethical Diamond rate the greatest dangers, while Lark In The Mornin is the archetypal plot horse. The market, rather than his recent form, is the best guide to his prospects.
So, two races in and no bet recommendations. That spurred me to look at a race I was going to ignore, namely the Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase.
It's a weak renewal, certainly in terms of strength in depth, and I was unfamiliar with the form of the runners this season. After several hours, I hope that's no longer the case.
Dinoblue is the race favourite, but quotes of 5-4 look too short. If the early tempo is sedate, that is probably the right price. However, if the early and mid-race tempo is fast, she could be vulnerable.
Dinoblue has 18 lifetime starts to her name. Her second outing came over 2m4f, but all bar one of her subsequent races have been at 2m or just over. That's a little strange. There is a good programme for mares over the trips she's been contesting, but why not trial moving up in distance if there's confidence that stamina is no issue?
She was second in this race 12 months ago on more testing ground than she will encounter here and that affair was run at a medium pace.
Three lengths down on Limerick Lace jumping the last, she eroded the deficit to three quarters of a length at the line. It briefly looked as if she would force a photo, but that didn't happen and despite being ridden aggressively through the finish line, and with momentum on her side, Limerick Lace was ahead after the finish line. This distance is likely her absolute limit with regards to stamina. A strong pace could expose the one chink in her armour.
My eye was then drawn to Je Tai Porte, mainly because of her running style and who trains her. Je Tai Porte is an outsider with very faint prospects here, reflected in her odds of 66-1. Gavin Cromwell's mare likes to get on with things and will probably set a brisk pace, which will play to the strengths of her stablemates in the aforementioned Limerick Lace and Brides Hill.
The latter has been beaten as an odds-on favourite twice this term, but losing out to the progressive Telepathique last time out was no disgrace, not for a horse with one previous run under her belt this season. That race also developed into something of a sprint, while Brides Hill's forte is stamina.
She's the more solid of the two Cromwell horses I want on my side and that's reflected in the staking advice at the end of the column.
However, Limerick Lace would also be a real danger if she can recapture last season's form. That is a big 'if'. She's performed abjectly in two races during the current campaign and there's the distinct possibility that running in the Grand National last year finished her as a racehorse.
On day three, I opined that Ryanair second-favourite Il Est Francais would run a big race or a lamentable one, and nothing in between. It's a view I also hold about Limerick Lace. I can see her finish in the first two and I can see her being pulled up without completing the race. She is win-only material and not an each-way bet. Late money for her, or a lack of it, is likely to prove illuminating on her prospects.
Allegorie De Vassy is the second-favourite and has to be respected, but I prefer the Cromwell runners at the prices.
Wendigo is attracting plenty of support for the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle, probably because of his eye-catching form behind The New Lion. He might well travel like the winner, but I've grave concerns about him seeing out the trip and can see him flagging in the closing stages and running unplaced, unless they go at a funereal early pace.
The five I fancy in a 20-runner contest that is meant to be a proper test of a novice's staying power are Derryhassen Paddy, Argento Boy, Flicker Of Hope, Jax Junior and Ma Shantou.
Five recommendations for one race may be pushing it, and Derryhassen Paddy possibly wants proper soft ground. If significant rain fell, I could easily see him going off favourite, but that is unlikely at this stage.
Argento Boy is the other runner I'd reluctantly cull from that shortlist, simply because the others are bigger prices. They're huge prices.
Flicker Of Hope is not flashy, but he's tough as teak. He will stay this trip and many of his rivals simply won't.
Ma Shantou has class concerns to overcome, but looks a resolute stayer.
The one I like best is Jax Junior. Dropping back in trip last time out didn't suit him, while the form and time of his penultimate start is excellent. There are a whole host of horses who save their best for Ascot, and perhaps he falls into that category. However, the main negative is his run style. He does seem to need to lead. Adapting those tactics and causing a shock will be incredibly difficult in this spot.
The Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup might just be a race to watch, rather than bet on, while Angels Dawan and Ryehill could be the two to follow in the St James's Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase. Shearer looks poor value and may be priced on the name recognition and his connections.
The Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle is the lucky last and hopefully it proves literally so.
Kopeck De Mee and Wodhooh head the market and both look ahead of their allotted handicap marks.
Kopeck De Mee is making his first start after a mammoth break of 310 days. That's a major negative, but it could be the only negative.
His French form suggests that in time he could turn out to be a Grade One performer. Off a mark of 136, he's an attractive bet, even with the caveat over his fitness.
No Questions Asked might go well at a big price.
Be lucky!
Selections:
Brides Hill 1.5pts EW @ 5-1 Cheltenham, 2.40pm
Limerick Lace 0.5pt Win @ 15-2 Cheltenham, 2.40pm
Jax Junior 0.5pt Win and 0.25pt Place @ 40-1 Cheltenham, 3.20pm
Flicker Of Hope 0.25pt EW @ 25-1 Cheltenham, 3.20pm
Ma Shantou 0.25pt EW @ 40-1 Cheltenham, 3.20pm
Angels Dream 0.25pt Win @ 10-3 Cheltenham, 4.40pm
Ryehill 12-1 0.25pt EW @ 12-1 Cheltenham, 4.40pm
Kopeck De Mee 0.5pt Win @ 5-2 Cheltenham, 5.20pm
