We move on to the second act of Cheltenham's four-part drama, with the BetMGM Queen Mother Chase headlining the rising action.
National Hunt traditionalists across the Irish Sea likely baulk at the juxtaposition of a US sports betting outfit in expansionary mode with the old dear, in terms of the name of the contest, but she'd have been cool with it. If there was one thing the Queen Mother loved more than a gin and Dubonnet, it was a bet on a two-mile chaser, or so the rumours go.
The column on day one flagged a winner and a second (both recommended each-way) from two bets after a needlessly lengthy – and slightly paternalistic – treatise on the perils of betting at odds-on. The shock winner of the Champion Hurdle also received what I believe is known in the trade "an honourable mention". Jeremy Scott's Golden Ace was a fortuitous winner, but she was well-backed just before the off, and luck often comes into the equation when outsiders pull off an upset.
You may have felt that two selections on a seven-race card for the opening day, was fewer than ideal. But if it's action you're after on day two, you've come to the right place. Stake recommendations will be miniscule, reflecting the confidence behind the bets – that is until we get to the (hopefully) lucky last.
The Turners Novices' Hurdle opens proceedings and the three I like at the prices are Kaid d'Authie at 33-1, Supersundae at 50-1 and Kappa Jy Pyke at 66-1. All three are available at much bigger prices on the exchanges.
The Supreme on the opening day is run over a shorter distance, but they often finish faster in the closing stages in this contest due to a sedate early tempo. Such a scenario might play against race favourite Final Demand (above), while suiting second-favourite The New Lion.
This edition of the Turners might just be run at a brisker pace than is the norm, if not from the start, then from midway.
Sixmilebridge likes to get on with things and if Paul Townend does feel Final Demand lacks the acceleration of his main market rival, he'll likely want to begin the race for home some way out.
The top two look proper horses, but they take a huge chunk out of the market, leading me to my trio of unlikely lads.
Willie Mullins saddles six here and Kappa Jy Pyke is sixth in the pecking order according to the betting. His two runs at Cork and Punchestown were solid efforts and while he has a class gulf to overcome, he could improve for the step up in trip. However, the ground may be a negative for him as the progeny of Masked Marvel often perform better with some dig in the ground.
For the purpose of actual betting recommendations, I've reluctantly discarded him in favour of Kaid d'Authie and Supersundae, who may have more in the way of natural ability.
Kaid d'Authie's campaign and his race placement is peculiar to my mind as two of his three runs this season came over two miles. This animal wants no part of a race at the minimum trip. He moves like a lot of stayers and looks to have a really long stride and an incredibly slow cadence. Horses often make their seasonal debuts over distances short of their best, but cutting back to two miles at the Dublin Racing Festival after showing good form at Leopardstown at Christmas over two and a half miles was a strange move.
I'm not a huge fan of asking horses to do what they can't do or don't want to do – unless it's running and jumping obstacles at high speed, obviously. It might just be that his trainer was trying to inject some speed into him with an eye to future targets. I'm convinced Kaid d'Authie should be running in the Albert Bartlett over three miles on Friday and he likely will underperform if the early pace is slow, but if they go quick, he has a chance. At a big price, you are getting compensated for that unlikely outcome.
Supersundae's price also bewilders me and it's obviously a concern to see him so weak in the market. He ran an awful race last time out at the Dublin Racing Festival and was pulled up. The vet reported him lame behind and he's likely missed work and we've no idea of his wellbeing.
Now let's concentrate on the positives. Last season, he finished seventh in the Supreme, beaten just over 10 lengths on his first start in 11 months. He had no prep for the Festival and was making his first start for Willie Mullins. That has to be regarded as an excellent display. He finished second behind The Yellow Clay, who he reopposes here, on his seasonal debut at Naas during the current campaign. Supersundae pulled quite hard in the early stages and the winner was a race-fit rival, adding context to the eight-length defeat. If he's over his ailment and he didn't miss much work – things we don't know – he's value.
Cheese wedges belong as an hors d'oeuvre at a dinner party, not at Cheltenham racecourse. However, you'll find them as an obstacle to be negotiated in the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase.
The infield course looks as if it was designed by a surrealist architect on a bad acid trip, but apparently "the public like it". That's a dangerous road to go down. Why not add a camouflaged pit of doom (with a trampoline at the bottom, obviously)? Some members of the public would regard that as an exciting addition to this equine version of crazy golf.
Anyway, Chemical Energy might just outrun his odds here if the rain stays away. Danny Gilligan's mount is utterly ground dependent and hasn't had his chance to shine in his two most recent starts. Concerns over how much rain falls means he's not an actual bet for this column, but he's worth considering if the precipitation fails to materialise.
The Champion Chase is a race I was going to swerve. Jonbon (above) is the most likely winner, but I was anticipating that he'd be 11-10 or 5-4 and not an odds-on shot. He's probably more effective at other tracks, but this isn't a strong renewal of the race.
If he's beaten, I don't think second-favourite Marine Nationale will be the one to lower his colours. There's a view that Sean Flanagan gave his mount too much to do when runner-up behind Solness at the Dublin Racing Festival, but it's not one I share. It's surprising to see the latter trading at a bigger price.
Solness finished 25 lengths behind Jonbon in the Tingle Creek earlier in the season, but he pulled hard that day on testing ground.
Found A Fifty gave weight and a beating to Solness earlier in the season but was pulled up in his last run at Leopardstown at Christmas. Disregard that last run. The post-race vet's report highlighted nasal discharge, but no mention was made of blood. Found A Fifty was likely suffering from a respiratory infection. Horses are scoped in the run-up to races to check for just this, but tests will often fail to detect a virus in its embryonic stage. His tendency to jump to his right is a concern, however, as he'll lose ground at this lefthanded circuit.
Energumene is still a top horse, but would prefer softer ground and Father Time is against him.
Libberty Hunter is a big outsider, but he'll be ridden in the rear and could run really well in the event of a fast early tempo and a pace collapse. He isn't in the class of his rivals, but extreme pace scenarios produce strange results. Without that, his price is warranted.
I don't want to lay Jonbon at this current price and I certainly don't want to lay Marine Nationale at 6-1 because if the latter scores, you've effectively backed a 1-6 loser. Instead, I'll be combining Solness, Found A Fifty, Libberty Hunter and Energumene for small stakes. For the purpose of this column, I'll reluctantly leave Energumene off the list.
The concluding Weatherby's Champion Bumper is where you'll find my bet of the day. Although the idea was to have two bets of the day here.
This is one of my favourite races of the meeting. There are no pesky obstacles to jump as it's run on the flat, even if not a Flat race. Jump racing may have been my first love – and you never forget your first love – but Flat racing usurped National Hunt racing in my own affections about 15 years ago.
Willie Mullins (above) doesn't win the race every year, it just seems that way. The master of Closutton saddles five here. Copacabana, Babino Fever and Gameofinches appear to be his main hopes. His recent acquisition Aqua Force is just 14-1, which I'd regard as poor value.
Copacabana is the race favourite after he quickened impressively to score on his only start in what was billed as a hot bumper, despite running greenly. Ruby Walsh flagged that the winner ran right through the line and required some pulling up, suggesting there was plenty more in the tank. He's the choice of Patrick Mullins here. Paul Townend may be the stable's number one jockey, but Willie Mullins' son has first pick in the bumper. That's how it's always been. If you're looking for further recommendations, consider this. In a recent interview with the Racing Post, JP McManus revealed that Copacabana was the only bet that he'd placed prior to the Festival. Copacabana is an exciting horse, but he's not for me.
Gameofinches is the selection after his win in a good time at Punchestown last month. That victory was achieved in a canter on soft ground, but he didn't show a pronounced knee action and his pedigree suggests livelier terrain won't present a problem. Like Copacabana, he has raced only once, and that was just 20 days ago. It would have been illuminating to see him in a second start and with a bigger break before turning up here. His late stable debut didn't allow that and few horses tick every box. We also don't know if he can quicken. He probably can and this contest is more of a test of speed than stamina in most years.
In the unlikely event of this race turning into a test of speed, the one I'd want to have on my side in a major way is El Cairos. The form of his sole bumper win is ordinary, but he quickened brilliantly. Maybe too brilliantly. He has the cadence of a 10-furlong Flat horse, but the pedigree of a proper National Hunt horse. I'm uncertain how he will perform in a test of stamina. My guess is poorly. I'm hoping I'm wrong about the latter scenario as he's a horse I've backed at 40-1 and I was itching to tip him here. However, his price has collapsed and he's now a best-price 16-1 with a bookmaker renowned for not taking a bet. He's 12-1 generally.
I can't recommend this horse as a value bet and value is all that matters in the long run. The contraction in the price of El Cairos may be partially due to comments at the weekend that he'd recently done a scintillating piece of work at Lingfield. That isn't a reason to back him, at least not in my book. From his one run, we know this horse travels and quickens and I'd guess he's a good work horse from seeing that Newbury run. He may drift to a backable price during the afternoon as his owner-rider David Maxwell is a poor amateur. But also a rich amateur. El Cairos did cost €200,000 at the sales. Maxwell only rides horses that he owns and he's smart in his purchases as he doesn't buy point-to-pointers that need rousting along as that's not something he has in his repertoire. He buys animals that travel and take him into a race. When he wins, it's generally because he's partnered the best horse. Perhaps El Cairos is the best horse.
Of the rest, Kalypsochance has to be respected, while Idaho Sun and Highland Haven (now a non-runner) could outrun their odds at huge prices.
Be lucky!
Selections
Kaid d'Authie 0.25pt Win @ 33-1 Cheltenham, 1.20pm
Supersundae 0.25pt Win @ 50-1 Cheltenham, 1.20pm
Solness 0.25pt Win @ 9-1 Cheltenham, 4.00pm
Found A Fifty 0.25pt Win @ 12-1 Cheltenham, 4.00pm
Libberty Hunter 0.25pt EW @ 33-1 Cheltenham, 4.00pm
Gameofinches 2pts Win @ 5-1 Cheltenham, 5.20pm
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