"Did you back many winners?"
If it's known that you follow racing closely and like a bet, that's the question family, friends and colleagues will likely ask you when Cheltenham's four-day extravaganza draws to a close.
Whether you finished up or down, and whether or not the horses you backed as a group outran their odds is of far greater relevance, but these are enquiries that may not be made.
With four odds-on favourites in the seven races over the opening afternoon, winners may seem not hard to come by, but you should tread carefully.
The claims of Kopek Des Bordes, Majborough, Lossiemouth and Constitution Hill are plain for all to see and they are beguiling choices.
All four might score this afternoon, but they're not unlike the sirens of Greek mythology. If backing horses at these prices is your thing, in the long run, you will perish.
However, it will at least be a slow death. Bookmakers operate on the basis of a favourite-outsider bias. A random favourite is better value than a random outsider, with the bookmaker's margin in the context of the price of the outsider greater than it is on the favourite.
Backing both randomly will see you lose money, it'll just happen more quickly with backing random outsiders, with the idea obviously to avoid the random.
The views of a sports journalist, who isn't a dedicated racing journalist, on backing odds-on shots might be ones to be eschewed.
But if you examine the approach taken by full-time, professional tipsters who post an annual profit and lifetime profits on their services, you'll note that they very rarely select odds-on shots.
When the sole goal of an occupation is to tip horses to be profitable in the long term, that should be regarded as illuminating.
Doubters will query why these hotshots share this information, "if they were that good, they'd be just backing those horses themselves". It's a nice idea, albeit a rather quaint one.
RTÉ Racing presenter Brian Gleeson often describes the betting market as racing's stock exchange, but it's one that suffers from a major liquidity crisis.
Betting for a living, if you think you can turn a profit, is problematic as it's not really scalable. Your account will be closed or heavily restricted if you continually back the right horses at the right prices, which from a bookmaker perspective, are the wrong horses at the wrong prices, because that means value has been obtained, which leads to profitability for the punter in the long term.
"Those fellas can use Betfair or other exchanges." Think again. Early liquidity on the exchanges is pitiful and declining for all bar the major races in the calendar as too many informed gamblers are trying to back the same horses. Early prices bear little resemblance to starting prices and with the role of the odds compiler almost redundant since bookmakers have embraced automation and artificial intelligence, the early odds are now often manipulated to distort bookmakers' early prices by those in the know.
Having gone off on a tangent, it's time to get back on course. Hopefully the long-winded segue gives you pause for thought when it comes to backing the shorties.
The curtain-raiser is the Michael O'Sullivan Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and it's many people's favourite race of the Festival, even if it is confined to inexperienced horses.
Having pored over the race for hours, I came up with almost nothing, only that there is no obvious each-way alternative to Willie Mullins' odds-on favourite Kopek Des Bordes (above).
The manner of his last win at the Dublin Racing Festival was breathtaking. Very few horses can coast to victory in Grade One company like he did after pulling so hard for much of the race. If he's to be beaten here, it's that trait, rather than the calibre of the opposition, that might prove his undoing. The first-time hood deployed is designed to pacify him and it will be interesting to monitor just how he behaves with the crowds in the preliminaries and on his way to the start. If you've the good fortune to be at Prestbury Park and have backed the favourite, don't partake in the famous Cheltenham roar, don't even whisper. That's the kind of thing that could set this horse alight.
Romeo Coolio and Workahead are vying for second-favouritism and look far more professional, but also less talented.
The main negative surrounding Romeo Coolio would appear to be his lack of acceleration. He failed to quicken when beaten as a 1-2F at Fairyhouse in early December before bouncing back to winning ways in a more strongly run race at Leopardstown at Christmas. He likely needs soft ground and/or a strong pace to be seen at this very best. He won't get the former, but he may get the latter.
Workahead clocked a similar time to Kopek Des Bordes at Leopardstown at Christmas and is a much bigger price. However, making a literal comparison is problematic. Kopek Des Bordes was making his seasonal debut and his first start over hurdles. He jumped poorly and we know that runners from the yard improve significantly with the benefit of a run.
William Munny is talented but has arguably failed to deliver on his potential as he pulls hard and races inefficiently. When horses pull as he does, it can just be down to an inexperienced horse, superior to his rivals running out of his grade. Or it can be a habitual trait that's difficult to remedy. He's another in a first-time hood. Barry Connell's charge is likely to be held up and could be suited to how the race unfolds, if he settles. The race itself may be just over two miles, but if you're backing him, you may well know if he's going to overperform or underperform in relation to his price after a few furlongs.
Salvator Mundi won at Fairyhouse in January despite doing everything wrong. He's similar to William Munny, in that he's more talented than he's shown to date and a better race could show him in a better light.
Irancy is an equine recluse and has been sighted on the racecourse just twice since October 2021. He finished behind Firefox and Ballyburn in a particularly hot maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse in December 2023 and won last time out at Punchestown last November, where he looked a far more formidable physical model. That was a weak contest, but he did clock a fast final furlong in effortless fashion. The absences suggest a horse that's been very difficult to train and his wellbeing has to be taken on trust, but it's interesting that the champion trainer and owner JP McManus have persevered with him. This is an onerous assignment, but would they really pitch him in here after showing so much patience if they didn't think he was up to it? We shall find out.
The first-time hood is becoming positively de rigueur for this spring season, with Karniquet another to don the headgear here. He was beaten 13 lengths into second by Kopek Des Bordes last time out. The winning distance could have been far more empathetic, but he might be capable of outrunning his odds as he lost ground at the start at Leopardstown.
The runner that interested me at a huge price was Karbau (above), who trades at 39-1 on the exchanges at the time of writing.
The time he clocked in his victory last time at Punchestown was out was ordinary and the form of that race looked awful at the time, and so it has proved. There is no eye-catching back-form to recommend this horse and he shows some knee action and hits the ground quite hard, meaning he may not love the undulations around here on a sound surface.
The only thing to recommend to him is the visual impression he made in that win. He jumped well, but raced very keenly for much of the race. Many horses get beaten in such circumstances or at least require rousting along late on. Paul Townend never needed to get busy on his mount and he appeared to win in a canter, although appearances can be deceptive with these forward-going types.
Willie Mullins saddles six runners in this race and it's not surprising to see the market regard this son of Cokoriko as the fourth choice in the pecking order.
A visual impression alone isn't generally enough to back a horse, but when it's 39-1 it can be. The problem in actually recommending Karbau as a bet is his run style. He looks a need-to-lead type, one almost guaranteed to race prominently, in a contest where they normally go a good gallop. With horses at these prices, you often want to back them each-way or have something on them placing. Karbau probably isn't that horse, in that I anticipate him running very well for a long way before tiring.
A better opportunity may await in the My Pension Expert Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase.
Majborough and L'Eau du Sud are the class runners in the field and I've a strong preference for the former. The issue with the favourite is his current price.
This is an Arkle that will likely be run at unrelenting pace, which could bring out the best in Nicky Henderson's Jango Baie.
The selection will probably prove best over half a mile further than the trip he encounters here and he may become outpaced during the race, but he should finish with some purpose if he can avoid falling too far back.
Lossiemouth is obviously a tough nut to crack in the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle as she bids to defend her crown in a race that arguably shouldn't exist at all.
Willie Mullins and owner Rich Ricci have come in for plenty of criticism for the decision to swerve the Champion Hurdle and what would have been a mouthwatering clash with Constitution Hill and Brighterdaysahead, but the rebukes would be better directed at officialdom.
Alongside the Grand National, the Cheltenham Festival is National Hunt racing's shop window to attract new fans and retain casual ones. Creating this race was myopic as it was always going to lead to a dilution of the Champion Hurdle, which is obviously the blue riband contest over timber.
The sex allowance mares receive when they do line up in the Champion Hurdle is more than generous, with Annie Power, Epatante and Honeysuckle (twice) proving themselves capable of beating the boys when they've seven pounds less on their backs.
Facing her own sex, Lossiemouth may have most to fear from Joyeuse and Jade De Grugy, with preference for the latter in a race that may lack strength in depth.
Joyeuse's seasonal debut behind Celtic Dino at Ascot didn't scream Cheltenham Festival winner, but that was just her third start and she has been improving rapidly. A runner-up behind another progressive sort on her subsequent start, she took her form to a new level when winning the William Hill Hurdle at Newbury last time out. That was a handicap where she carried a weight which underestimated her ability and it also came over two miles, but this longer trip is well within her compass. She proved that by clocking a fast final furlong in a race where they went quick from the off at the Berkshire circuit.
Jade De Grugy has raced just once this season, when scoring easily at Punchestown in February. A sole start during the campaign is a slight concern, but she won easily and raced far more professionally than she has in the past. The daughter of Doctor Dino finished fourth in the mares' novices' hurdle last year, but she raced far too enthusiastically that day and endured a rough journey.
The Unibet Champion Hurdle is the day's highlight, but with seven runners and two places for each-way purposes, it's not a great betting heat.
Constitution Hill (above) put a race-fit Lossiemouth in her place at Kempton at Christmas on what was his seasonal debut, but without looking like the imperious beast who devastated his rivals at the Cheltenham Festival in 2022 and 2023. Lossiemouth struggled to go the pace that day and then attempted to make up ground quite early in a race where they went very fast until halfway, while Burdett Road was beaten just nine lengths despite setting that fast tempo and making a mess of negotiating the final flight.
Brigtherdaysahead just about accounted for State Man at Punchestown in November, despite being race-fit and her rival making his seasonal debut. She improved significantly to record a remarkable win at Leopardstown at Christmas, but State Man clearly never ran his race. His proximity to inferior rivals, such as Winter Fog and Fils D'Oudairies, indicates that.
The aforementioned Burdett Road and King Of Kingsfield won't be winning, but they could have a major say in how the race pans out. The latter is a pacemaker for Brighterdaysahead, while Burdett Road also likes to race from the front. Brigtherdaysahead will need a fast-run race to score here, while Constitution Hill will presumably stalk the mare.
Golden Ace is likely to be well off the pace and ridden to pick up the pieces if they go too fast in front. Her yard had been bang out of form for most of the season, but has turned things around dramatically in recent weeks. She might run well at a huge price, but her wellbeing has to be taken on trust as she pulled a muscle on her last start, which explains why she jumped pronouncedly to her right having not exhibited that tendency previously.
The concluding handicaps make no appeal to me, although many will feel differently.
After all that, we've just too lukewarm fancies for the first afternoon. For selections with greater conviction and greater brevity, you'll need to return on Wednesday and Friday, although possibly not Thursday (do return on Thursday).
Be lucky!
Selection: Jango Baie 0.5pt EW @ 15-2 Cheltenham, 2pm
Selection: Jade De Grugy 1pt EW @ 11-2 Cheltenham, 3.20pm
