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Irish Champion Stakes preview: Luxembourg can belie his odds

Updated / Saturday, 14 Sep 2024 17:31
Auguste Rodin edges out Luxembourg (near side) in last year's renewal
Auguste Rodin edges out Luxembourg (near side) in last year's renewal

3.25 Leopardstown Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes (Group One) 1m2f

Since its inception in 1976, the Irish Champion Stakes has assumed the mantle as the most prestigious Flat race on the Irish calendar and regularly features as one of the highest rated contests anywhere on the planet.

Leopardstown hosted two of the great duels of the 21st Century, with the late bloomer Fantastic Light emerging victorious as a five-year-old when he clashed with Derby winner and future supersire Galileo in a race for the ages in 2001.

Just two years later, High Chaparral repelled the late thrusts of Falbrav and Islington in a stacked race at the Foxrock venue.

Dylan Thomas became the first two-time winner of the race after victories in 2006 and 2007, a feat subsequently matched by the mare Magical in 2019 and 2020, while the Sea The Stars can arguably lay claim to the greatest individual performance in the race during his unbeaten Classic campaign in 2009.

However, the quality of the fields and the winners have naturally oscillated over the years. They can't all be vintage editions or that would render them unexceptional.

The absence of the City Of Troy and Calandagan, who proved the best when finishing first and second in last month’s Juddmonte International at York, does strip the race of some of its lustre.

City Of Troy is being prepared for November's Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar, the San Diego County beach town that’s racecourse is famously known as the place where 'the surf, meets the turf’, even if it’s an alien dirt surface that Aidan O’Brien’s charge will tackle for the first time.

Calandagan, who may have been given too much to do in reeling in City Of Troy at York, waits for Ascot’s Champion Stakes in October, a track where he was an impressive winner during the Royal meeting.

Economics’ position as the 11-8 market leader (and shorter with most firms) for the Irish Champion Stakes is a reflection of a race lacking true depth.

With just four lifetime starts and unbeaten in three outings this term, William Haggas’s charge is the unexposed contender who could be capable of great improvement.

He recorded a visually striking success in the Dante in May, before being wrapped up in cotton wool, only returning to the racecourse for a pipe-opener in last month’s Prix Guillaume d'Ornano at Deauville.

Both those contests were truly run, with Economics benefitting from sitting off the pace until the business-end of the races. He was clearly the best horse at York and Deauville, but how those races were run showed him in the best possible light.

Economics is certain to improve from his reappearance at Deauville, but the degree of improvement he will show is a matter of conjecture.

One of the main benefits of actually going racing is that you view horses as physical specimens in three-dimensional form, as opposed to through television pictures in 2D. Even without being at Deauville, a viewer could tell that Tom Marquand's mount was carrying plenty of condition and would strip fitter for the run.

Runner-up Jayarebe was the only horse to give Economics a race that day, and may have finished closer to the winner if he’d delayed his effort a tad.

'Patient' is the word you’ll see most often when describing Economics’ campaign to date. However, it’s hard not to conclude that Haggas has been overly cautious in his route to this race.

Ask yourself this. If Aidan O’Brien sent out a once-raced maiden winner to claim a recognised Derby trial by six lengths, would that colt be off the track until mid-August of his Classic campaign? Barring injury, it just wouldn’t happen.

The decision not to supplement Economics for the Derby was an understandable one. He doesn’t necessarily look the type that would have been suited to the steep undulations and the camber of Epsom.

On breeding, there would have also have been a doubt over his ability to get the trip. We associate the best of the progeny of Night Of Thunder as being sprinters or milers. However, the sire has also produced plenty of stock that have been successful over this distance and the mare Thunder Kiss did manage to place in Group One company over a mile and a half. Economics boasts the stride length of a horse that will stay further, but we’re unlikely to be afforded the chance to see that, certainly not this season, with the Irish Champion Stakes and the British equivalent wrapping up his season.

Haggas has effectively only had to peak his charge once for a five-week window in September and October, which is much easier to do than racing a horse aggressively throughout the summer and into the autumn a la Aidan O’Brien’s style. For all his achievements, it’s arguably the latter’s ability to maintain a horse’s consistency across a long season that marks him out from his contemporaries. And it’s vital for the health of the sport - we want to see the best of the breed running regularly.

The madness of crowds is counteracted by the wisdom of crowds. Economics market position is probably the best guide we have to his prospects and he should be there or thereabouts. It’s then a matter of whether you want to take a top-price 11-8 about a horse stepping up to Group One company for the first time against seasoned foes.

I've no idea if Auguste Rodin the sculptor was a tortured artist, but the equine version does seem to have his own foibles and eccentricities despite being a multiple Group One winner.

The son of the late, great Japanese sire Deep Impact has won eight of his 14 career outings and has proven top class on his day, while a number of notable off-days have been explained away by unsuitable ground conditions, an aversion to flying and a particularly sensitive disposition.

Auguste Rodin had no issue tackling testing terrain as a juvenile, but preferences – be they equine or human – aren’t immutable. They may be, but they can also evolve and change.

Japanese horses regularly run on firm turf, meaning their top races are won by horses and future sires who thrive on fast surfaces. Auguste Rodin could be taking more after his father as he matures, particularly after some unhappy experiences on slower ground. He’s also a long-striding sort and a long stride is generally deployed most efficiently on a sound surface.

The drying conditions at Leopardstown will aid his cause, it’s a matter of whether he’s actually quite as good as many hoped he would be, and if he’s regressed a little this season.

His current campaign began with a display that was too bad to be true in the Sheema Classic at Meydan, where he finished last, beaten 22 lengths by Rebel’s Romance.

Auguste Rodin then filled the runner-up berth behind an in-form White Birch at the Curragh in the Tattersalls Gold Cup on going rated good to yielding before returning to winning ways at Royal Ascot in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes and subsequently disappointing in fifth in the King George at the same course for a second consecutive year.

The ground at Ascot in each of his last two runs was officially good to firm, although on the latter occasion it was patently riding slower than described due to overnight watering.

The manner of victory in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes was a little underwhelming, while both that race and the King George saw Auguste Rodin race a little too closely to a strong gallop.

He’s the obvious challenger to the race favourite, even if he’s to totally convince this year.

Auguste Rodin’s stablemate Los Angeles is next best in the market, but this looks short of his optimal trip.

The son of Camelot did display a turn of foot to win the Leopardstown Derby Trial over course and distance on his seasonal debut, but horses often perform best at short of their ideal distance after long breaks and the calibre of the opposition he faced that day also has to be taken into consideration.

His other runs, including his Group One win at Saint Cloud over 10 furlongs as a juvenile, and the stamina he exhibited in strongly run editions of the English and Irish Derby suggest a mile and a half is his trip.

That Criterium de Saint-Cloud run and his trainer's recent comments also point to a soft-ground Arc perhaps being a more suitable target.

Unbeaten as a two-year-old, Ghostwriter is another contender who should relish the quickening conditions.

Clive Cox’s son of Invincible Spirit has yet to enter the winners’ enclosure in four starts this term, but has raced solid races in defeat, including on ground softer than ideal.

Given his preference for lively ground, it was surprising to see him sent off at 33-1 for the Juddmonte International last time out, where he outran his odds and finished third.

However, he was well-positioned in a race where the pace was fast-steady-fast and he had no real response to the closing efforts of City Of Troy and Calandagan. He will need to settle better than he did on the Knavesmire to build on that performance.

Japanese raider Shin Emperor, who has been stabled in Chantilly ahead of the Irish Champion Stakes and an Arc bid, is a fascinating runner and something of an imponderable.

He has run well without winning against his fellow three-year-olds, but we don't know how good the best of the Classic crop in the country are as they are yet to take on older rivals in their top races.

The uncertainty over Shin Emperor is compounded by the fact that he has a mammoth 111-day absence to overcome. Japanese runners can and do run well after long breaks, but his current level of fitness has to be taken on trust and it wouldn’t be surprising if the great race in Paris on the first Sunday in October is the ultimate goal.

One thing we are familiar with is his breeding. Shin Emperor, out of the blue hen Starlet’s Sister, is a full-brother to 2020 Arc winner Sottsass.

In terms of gleaning pedigree clues, we know that Sottsass was incredibly versatile in terms of ground conditions, but he also seemed to need a run after a break to show his best.

While Sottsass’s greatest moment came in his final start in the mile-and-a-half highlight at Longchamp, he was also a Group One winner over shorter distances in the Prix du Jockey Club and the Prix Ganay.

He may have only finished fourth in the 2020 Irish Champion Stakes, but that trip was arguably his optimal trip as his Arc win came in a race run at a crawl that developed into a sprint finish. The field ambled along so slowly that Group One-winning miler Persian King managed to cling on for third after being gifted a soft lead.

Shin Emperor will be suited by this contest, but establishing just where he is in terms of ability and fitness is devilishly difficult.

Royal Rhyme would prefer a testing surface and is likely flying too high here, while there's nothing to suggest that a fairytale ending awaits the outclassed pacemaker Hans Andresen.

The value in the race, and he’s tipped with relatively tepid enthusiasm, may lie with Luxembourg.

After a foray to the Middle East in the spring, the son of Camelot won a poor edition of the Coronation Cup at Epsom under a canny ride from Ryan Moore.

That marked a first Group One win over a mile and half for a horse that has always looked a 10-furlong specialist. Moore and his mount were allowed to set fairly sedate fractions, particularly in the middle part of the race, and that allowed him to last home from Hamish, with the runner-up clearly not a genuine Group One performer.

His last outing saw him deliver a seemingly wretched display in the King George, where he was beaten over 14 lengths when sixth of nine runners behind Goliath. However, "seemingly" might be the operative word.

With Wayne Lordan on board and racing prominently, he helped force a searching pace in the middle part of the race. Leading on the turn for home, those early exertions clearly took their toll and Luxembourg tired badly in the last couple of furlongs. Stablemate Auguste Rodin raced just behind Luxembourg for much of the trip and finished ahead of him in fifth, but we know that the former stays a mile and half better.

There’s definitely an element of recency bias at play in Luxembourg’s price. Factor in the reasons for his "wretched display" and peruse his body of work, and ask yourself if he’s really a 14-1 shot.

He’s not the most talented horse in this race and he’s not improving at the age of five with 17 runs under his belt, but the ground and trip will hopefully show him in a better light.

Despite being a winner of this race in 2022 and a runner-up 12 months ago, he comes in here something of a forgotten horse for the aforementioned reasons, but a solid display is anticipated in a race paying three places.

How the Ballydoyle quartet attempt to dictate the tempo of here will be intriguing. A strong pace has been forecast by many, but it might be that an even gallop rather than a brisk one prevails, given that such a scenario would likely play to the strengths of Economics, who is likely to be held up for a late challenge once again.

Selection: LUXEMBOURG 14-1 (Each-way)

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