RTÉ Racing analysts Jane Mangan, Lisa O'Neill, Barry Geraghty and Andrew McNamara explore where they feel the value lies over each of the four afternoons at the Cheltenham Festival.
DAY 1
JM: A horse that has a chance to defy its odds is Quilixios (7-1) in the Arkle (2.10). It's a race that has opened up considerably, with a number of notable non-runners. While I can pick holes in some of the market protagonists, I think Quilixios has a very solid each-way chance for the king of the two-mile chasers in Henry de Bromhead, and Rachael Blackmore won the Triumph Hurdle on him. Owners Cheveley Park have a remarkable record at the Festival and I think this one could enhance it.
LON: I'm going for Hispanic Moon (40-1) in the Mares' Hurdle (4.10). Darragh O'Keeffe is on board for Henry de Bromhead, who sends out three runners in the race. Hispanic Moon appeals because I think she's quite a progressive mare. She was a multiple winner in France, including a Grade Three over fences, before she joined her current trainer. A winner of two of her three starts on Irish soil, I was really impressed with how she performed the last day at Punchestown, when she had Gala Marceau well behind her. She jumps and travels really well, while she should really handle the ground conditions. I think that she'll be coming up the hill extremely well and will see out this trip.
BG: A horse that I think will outrun his odds potentially on drying ground is Tellherthename (25-1) in the Supreme (1.30). Trained by Ben Pauling in England, he's an Irish point-to-point winner. He was very impressive at Huntingdon last time, winning by 14 lengths. He disappointed on his previous start at Aintree on very soft ground, but was a good winner before that, also at Huntingdon on good ground, having been beaten a nose on his first start on soft ground. He is a little bit ground-dependent. The drier it is, the better. But he's a horse with a big each-way chance.
AMN: My fancy is Gala Marceau (22-1) in the Mares' Hurdle (4.10). This daughter of Galiway had a really good juvenile campaign, beating favourite Lossiemouth in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown last season. Danny Mullins was on board and she was probably a bit lucky that day as Lossiemouth had a bit of trouble in running. She then came to Cheltenham and finished second in the Triumph Hurdle, comfortably beaten by Lossiemouth, but it was a fair run all the same and she likes the track. After that, she went to France and won their four-year-old juvenile hurdle, probably her best performance. She did have a bad run last time out, but I think that's well-reflected in her odds, and she’s probably overpriced on that basis. The big bonus is that Mullins is back on board and we've seen so many times how he can upset the odds – and upset Paul Townend – whether he's on the second-, third- or fourth-string.
DAY 2
JM: I'm going for Saint Roi (15-2) each-way in the Grand Annual (4.50). A Grade One-winning novice chaser, and second to Banbridge at Aintree last year, he's reverting to handicap company.
LON: The Champion Bumper (5.30) is a very difficult race to work out and it's hard to equate the formlines, but I like The Yellow Clay (10-1). He has won two of his three starts and is the winner of a Listed race. His last outing followed an 11-month break and I thought it was a very eye-catching run when fourth in a Grade Two at Leopardstown. He was in trouble a long way from home when the race was starting to take shape, but you had to be impressed with the way he hit the line. He could could potentially run a massive race for the Bective Stud team.
Next stop Cheltenham?
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Tullyhill runs out an excellent winner of the Madigan Group @IrishEBF_ Sheila Bourke Novice Hurdle for Willie Mullins, @PTownend and @CPStudOfficial 👏 pic.twitter.com/LgFDdgSwIB
BG: I think Gordon Elliott's Jigoro (14-1) is overpriced in the Coral Cup (2.50). He was nine lengths behind Tullyhill last time out in a good novice hurdle at Punchestown, having been seven lengths behind Mystical Power on his previous run in a Grade Two, also at Punchestown. He has had four runs over hurdles, which qualifies him for handicaps. All have been over two miles and I think the step up to two miles five furlongs will see the improvement necessary for this fella to go close.
AMN: I like Ballyadam (16-1) for the Coral Cup (2.50). This horse went chasing earlier in the season, but that didn't seem to be to his taste, so he has reverted to hurdles. On his first run back over the smaller jumps, he finished third to Irish Point in the Grade One Christmas Hurdle. That was a very solid run ahead of this drop back into handicap company. He has spent a lot of his life running over two miles, as he did here in the County Hurdle last year when finishing fifth.
That was a huge run, but his most recent effort behind Irish Point was over two miles seven furlongs on heavy ground, so I think that shows he does have stamina and that going beyond the two miles one furlong of the County Hurdle will suit him better.
The Coral Cup is run over two miles five furlongs, which could prove exactly his optimal trip. Henry de Bromhead trains him and we know just how well he does around Cheltenham and how well he maps out his horses for the Festival. Ballyadam hasn't run since Christmas, but I imagine he’s been aimed at the race a long time out, and owners Cheveley Park love the big festivals.
DAY 3
JM: On a difficult day, I like Letsbeclearaboutit (10-1) in Plate (4.10). He has got top weight but he also has a lovely profile for the race. Gavin Cromwell may have been planning for this race, and with his formlines through I Am Maximus and Found A Fifty when third in a Grade One back in December, and his last run behind Embassy Gardens, I think Letsbeclearaboutit could be well-handicapped here.
LON: I'm picking Icare Allen (10-1) in the Pertemps (2.10), a runner with Graded form as a juvenile. He stepped up in trip for the first time in his last run, which was a qualifier for this race, where he squeezed into third place at Aintree. That offered plenty of encouragement and he gets into this race off a mark of 142, with a nice weight on his back of 11st 2lbs. This may have been the plan for him for a long time. He is a horse that ran very well in the past in a Galway Hurdle and I think there's plenty of upside to him for the JP McManus team, who have plenty of live chances over the week.
BG: Saint Felicien (14-1) runs in the Plate (4.10) and was a good winner last time at Gowran on heavy ground. He was second to Tactical Move on his previous run, also at Gowran. He was also runner-up at Navan over two and a half miles prior to that outing. The trip on better ground is really going to suit him. He was a very smart hurdler previously, so he should go well.
AMN: Get on Git Maker (25-1) in the Kim Muir (5.30). A former point-to-pointer for Warren Young, he took a while to learn his job, but eventually won one in that sphere on his fourth attempt before moving over to the UK to Jamie Snowden.
He has continued to improve and improve through his career. A six-time winner and place twice from only 10 runs, he disappointed last time out at Ascot in December, but he has been given plenty of time to get over that bad run and freshen up.
He is consistent, has a good attitude and settles well in his races. Git Maker has won twice over three miles one furlong, so the extra furlong in this contest should not be an issue for him. He is an eight-year-old and open to a lot more improvement than many of his rivals. This one is my nap of the week.
DAY 4
JM: The County Hurdle (2.10) is a very difficult race as always. JP McManus is going to be very well-represented and I'm a big fan of the mare Zenta (14-1) . She was a Grade One-winning novice hurdler last year at Aintree. She tried fences in December in Cork on our RTÉ coverage and her last run back over hurdles was a nice prep run for this.
LON: Pied Piper (14-1) is the selection in the County Hurdle (2.10), a race he was second in last year when losing out by a head. That was off a two pound lower mark and he does have plenty of weight on his back, but I wouldn't be surprised if connections use a claimer to offset the added weight. He handles this New Course very well. A strong stayer and a good jumper, he does travel quite well in his races. He competed in a Grade One last time out and he's back in much calmer waters with the return to handicap company.
BG: I think Readin Tommy Wrong (9-2) is overpriced in the Albert Bartlett (2.50) and he'll probably go off a lot shorter. Bunting (16-1), trained by Willie Mullins, lines up in the Triumph Hurdle (1.30) and was a good winner first time over hurdles at Limerick. He was only beaten by two and a quarter lengths by Kargese last time at Leopardstown. That form is very strong. The only contender that isn't tied up with that Leopardstown race is Nicky Henderson’s favourite Sir Gino. There's no reason why Bunting can't get involved after being competitive at Leopardstown and I think he should offer good value.
AMN: If somebody knows what they're talking about, keeps on and on and on telling you something, at some stage you should probably have a listen. Mouse Morris, who should know what he's talking about because he trained a Gold Cup winner in War of Attrition, tells me that Gentlemansgame (18-1) is a Gold Cup (3.30) horse.
He is very inexperienced, which would be a bit of a worry, but also because of that, he is very unexposed and possibly a bigger price than he should be. He has only had three runs over fences and the first of those saw him beat subsequent Irish Grand National winner I Am Maximus. His next start saw him fill the runner-up berth in a Grade Two at Gowran nine months later, so something obviously went wrong in the interim. That's not Gold Cup form, but since then he beat Bravemansgame in the Grade One Charlie Hall Chase, which very much throws him into the mix.
After that victory, his trainer was asked what would win the Gold Cup. He said he would not swap his horse for anything, and I'm sure he genuinely believes that this is the best horse in the feature. Darragh O'Keeffe rides and he’s a good rider, very confident, very forward-going and he'll give everything he can.
