5.15pm Randox Grand National
The first official running of the Grand National at Aintree may have been won by a horse by the name of Lottery, but the irony that he was sent of a well-backed 5-1 favourite for what was to become the world's most famous steeplechase has obviously been lost in the mists of time.
Finding the winner of any competitive 40-runner handicap will stump the majority of gamblers most of the time, but the randomness element is overemphasised.
In the last 20 runnings of the race, four favourites or joint-favourites have scored, namely Hedgehunter (2005, 7-1F), Comply Or Die (2008, 7-1JF), Don't Push It (2010, 10-1JF) and Tiger Roll (2019, 4-1F). Seven of the other 16 winners have been sent off at 16-1 or shorter, which speaks to a fairly informative market when you factor in and contextualise the prices of the runners in fields of this size.
The National may have changed since Lottery's success in 1839, but historical trends relating to official ratings, weight carried, preparation for the race, previous big-field form, stamina, breeding and jumping prowess have helped to identify winners and rule out false pretenders.
However, the latter of those traits isn't the boon it once was, with major alterations made to the National fences a decade ago resulting in obstacles that are far easier to negotiate.
Where once hitting a fence brought runners to a juddering halt, these days the jumps' plastic cores often allow runners to plough to the other side, much to the chagrin of many purists, if not the broader public.
This is the people's race and welfare issues and the optics surrounding them matter.
Completing the course is still an onerous task and those fence changes have arguably made the race an even greater stamina test, with the early stages of the race run at a brisker pace. Tired horses that once would have had their race ended by a fall are now being pulled up when their chance is gone.
One issue that is harder to justify in the context of this year's race was the decision of Aintree's clerk of the course to water the track on Thursday night despite an accurate short-term forecast predicting rain that duly arrived on Friday.
If that application of water had been confined to the take-off and landing areas, fine, but the entire course was irrigated. Mother Nature and human intervention has likely scuppered the chances of runners in the field that favour livelier spring ground.
Ain't That A Shame is favourite for the race at the time of writing, catapulted to the head of the market by the Rachael Blackmore factor, but also by the softening conditions. He may be a nine-year-old, but he's very lightly raced, which means he's unexposed. Henry de Bromhead's contender has only once raced beyond 3m and it's probably best to discount an effort that looked too bad to be true. However, his price doesn't scream value.
Corach Rambler is officially the best handicapped horse in the race and is due to go up 10lbs for his win at Cheltenham last time out. He's likely to be held up well off the pace, which means he might require more luck in running than most, and while he tends to finish his races strongly, he still has to prove his stamina over truly marathon trips.
Delta Work won the cross-country at Cheltenham on his last start and finished third in the National last year, albeit beaten by a long way, after putting in some sketchy jumps. Despite that placed effort, he's only 1lb higher in the weights this time around.
Noble Yeats defied a number of stats to triumph last year and give Sam Waley-Cohen a fairytale ending to a stellar amateur career in the saddle. An eight-year-old with very few miles on the clock, he ran an eye-catching trial in the Gold Cup, finishing fourth from well off the pace when his abundant stamina kicked in. Has to hump 19lbs a year on from giving Emmet Mullins his biggest win as a trainer.
Any Second Now has proven both versatile and consistent for Ted Walsh, with third- and second-place finishes in the last two renewals of the race. He arrives on the back of a win last time out and looks set to run another big race, but must defy top weight against less exposed rivals.
Gaillard Du Mesnil scored over 3m6f at Cheltenham on his most recent start. There was more than a touch of good fortune about that win with late departure of Mahler Mission, but the Willie Mullins-trained runner stayed on really well from an unpromising position and will handle the ground. In last year's Irish Grand National, he carried the welter burden of 11st 8lbs to third place as a six-year-old.
The Big Dog fell last time out, but has been a progressive performer all season. However, he may have shown his hand earlier than ideal with two consecutive handicap wins in the first half of the campaign.
Vanillier scored over hurdles at Cheltenham as a novice, but has had back problems and hasn't looked a natural over fences. However, that deficiency isn't the concern it once was and he looks like a horse that can thrive over this mammoth trip. Proved his current wellbeing when a closing second at Fairyhouse on his most recent start.
Mr Incredible is arguably the quirkiest performer in the field and looks boom or bust material, in that he's likely to run very well or abjectly. He'll relish the terrain.
Le Milos has won two of his three starts since moving to Dan Skelton's yard, suffering a narrow defeat last time out after a break.
Galvin filled the runner-up berth in the cross-country behind Delta Work at Cheltenham last time out after a break. Has promised to stay this trip, but might prefer better ground.
Our Power is well-handicapped and is set to go up 4lbs after the National. Has to prove his stamina for the trip and another who likely would have found that easier on a sounder surface.
Capodanno is improving and will act on the ground, with the trip an unknown.
Longhouse Poet faded badly in the closing stages to finish sixth in last year's race, but it might be unwise to regard him as a non-stayer over the trip. Like Coko Beach, who also lines up once more, he did too much, too soon in a race run at a fast early pace.
The remaining 25 runners in the field trade at 50 (49-1) or more on the exchanges. The Big Breakaway, Dunboyne and Diol Ker are thoroughly unreliable performers but capable of outrunning their odds in a big way if they take to this unique test.
Verdict
Seven-year-olds have a poor record in this race, but that didn't stop Noble Yeats causing a shock last season. GAILLARD DU MESNIL (12-1) has that historical age trend to overcome as well, but is far more experienced and French-breds do tend to mature earlier. His weight-carrying performance in last season's Irish edition of the race was impressive, he'll handle the ground and could improve for the step up in trip, with the main concern his trainer's reservations about how he may have recovered from his win at Cheltenham. However, this 32-day break is more than I Am Maximus enjoyed when winning the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse under Paul Townend on Easter Monday.
How and where you place your National bets warrants consideration and it's advisable to use an odds comparison websites such as Oddschecker to seek out the best early prices and enhanced place terms for each-way bets.
The best bet on the supporting card could be Gavin Cromwell's Letsbeclearaboutit (10-1) in the Turners Mersey Novices' Hurdle (3pm), with the drop back in trip after pulling hard in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham likely to suit.
