Paul Nicholls is confident he has picked the right Cheltenham Festival contest for his hugely-impressive Challow Hurdle winner Hermes Allen.
The six-year-old, who was an expensive £350,000 purchase following victory between the flags at Kirkistown, holds entries for both the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle and the Albert Bartlett over further at Prestbury Park.
But it is the shorter of the two Grade One contests that has always been identified as the preferred option and the son of Poliglote is the general 9-4 favourite for the two-mile-five-furlong event.
Nicholls has seen Gold Cup contender Bravemansgame and the admirable Stage Star both turned over in the day two opener on the back of success at Newbury in the past two years, while Denman is another famous Ditcheat name to suffer defeat in the contest.
However, the champion trainer is bullish his unbeaten charge heads to the Festival as one of his best chances of the week.
He said: "He surprised me first time out when he won at Stratford. He then went to Cheltenham and won very nicely and then went to Newbury and won very nicely on heavy ground.
"I didn’t think he’d want that ground, but he was the only one with the ability to go through it and plenty of those that finished behind him have won since – it’s turned out to be a very good race.
"He’s obviously got huge ability and I’m excited about him going to Cheltenham of course, but I’m as excited about the future with him as he’ll be a lovely horse to go chasing.
"He’s working nicely and is in good shape. He’s in the Albert Bartlett, but I’ve always thought the Ballymore over two-and-a-half would suit.
"It’s a very good race, the Irish have got some very good horses in there but he’s got a great chance.
"He jumps and can be ridden forward and, on paper, he’s our best chance of the week."
Nicholls also hopes Tahmuras’ staying prowess means he will be a live candidate in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
The race has an open feel following the defeat of Facile Vega at the Dublin Racing Festival and the champion trainer believes the Tolworth Hurdle winner – who is a best-priced 10-1 for success – gives him similar vibes to the previous Ditcheat winners of the Festival opener, Noland and Al Ferof.
"He looks fantastic and is three from three this year," continued Nicholls.
"He’s surprised us a little bit to be honest. He won a bumper at Wincanton and we thought he was a nice horse who would win plenty of races, but I never dreamt he’d be going for a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
"He didn’t really enjoy the ground that much in the Tolworth, but he had enough ability to gallop round and win nicely.
"The ground will be much better for him at Cheltenham, which will suit. I’ve won the Supreme with Al Ferof and Noland who weren’t going to go on and be Champion Hurdlers, they were staying chasers and he is very much the same as them.
"Those horses that stay can actually run very well in the Supreme and he has a lot of ability.
"He’s right in the mix in a very open race."
One Ditcheat inmate that could be swimming slightly under the radar is Stay Away Fay, who heads to the Albert Bartlett on the final day of the meeting.
In his Lingstown point-to-point, he drew six lengths clear of Henry de Bromhead’s Monty’s Star and the pair may lock horns again at Prestbury Park. However, whereas Monty’s Star is single-figure odds for the gruelling three-mile Grade One, Stay Away Fay’s price ranges from 16-1 to 25-1.
He has looked worthy of his £305,000 price-tag since transferring to Ditcheat, claiming a Newbury maiden in good style before just falling short in the Grade Two River Don at Doncaster last time.
"He’s a nice horse and is not that far behind Hermes Allen, he’s just had one run less," added Nicholls.
"Lorcan (Williams) will say it probably wasn’t his best ever ride the last day at Doncaster. He got into trouble from the start and in the straight and still stayed on and finished second.
"He runs in the Albert Bartlett and I think there’s a lot to come from this horse. He stays and gallops. He lacks a bit of experience, but I think he’s one of the best big-priced outsiders we’ve got."
What a race! 🤯
— Kempton Park Racecourse (@kemptonparkrace) December 26, 2022
🏇 Bravemansgame lands the spoils in dramatic style, giving Paul Nicholls a record 13th win in the Grade 1 Ladbrokes King George VI Chase 👏@ladbrokes @PFNicholls @CobdenHarry pic.twitter.com/EBfqMxeH1o
Nicholls is optimistic Bravemansgame has what it takes to provide him with a fifth victory in the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup.
It is 24 years since the Ditcheat maestro first landed the blue riband with See More Business (1999) and he went on to win three successive renewals between 2007 and 2009, with Kauto Star's two triumphs sandwiching the victory of his formidable stablemate Denman.
Nicholls has since seen a couple of dual King George winners come up short at Prestbury Park in the form of Silviniaco Conti and Clan Des Obeaux, but is hopeful it will be a different story in little over a fortnight’s time for his latest winner of Kempton’s Christmas highlight.
"He’s done nothing wrong at all this year and I don’t think he was right last spring," the trainer said.
"We recauterised his palate during the summer, he’s had some time and I didn’t want to make the mistake of running him again between Kempton and Cheltenham.
"He’s brilliant fresh and brilliant very fit. He’s twice the horse now as a model compared to what he was last year.
"We learnt a few things about him last year, you never stop learning how to train one and I think we’ve got it right now."
There have been suggestions that Bravemansgame is in the same camp as Clan Des Obeaux and Silviniaco Conti in that Cheltenham may not be his ideal track – but Nicholls does not subscribe to that theory.
He added: "He’s won on all sorts of tracks and he’s the finished article now. I can assure you when he was six years old he wasn’t half the horse he is now."
Another question Bravemansgame will need to answer in the Cotswolds is whether his stamina will last out over the the extended three-and-a-quarter-mile distance.
Nicholls, though, is confident in his staying power, saying: "The one thing he did in the King George was he stayed on really strongly. He didn’t get the best passage that day and horses who win King Georges win Gold Cups.
"In the Gold Cup you turn into the straight and the best horse on the day wins and the horse that stays the best wins.
"I don’t know how he’ll get on up that hill, no one knows, but it was the same with Kauto Star. We didn’t know if he was going to get three and a quarter miles because he’d been winning at Kempton, but he did."
Nicholls believes Shishkin will be "unbeatable" in the Ryanair Chase if he can replicate his recent Ascot Chase performance.
The nine-year-old made a successful switch up to two miles and five furlongs in Berkshire, inflicting a 16-length defeat on the Nicholls-trained Pic D'Orhy as he returned from a couple of disappointing runs in style.
Nicholls may take on Nicky Henderson’s charge with Hitman and while the Ditcheat trainer expects his runner to appreciate a drop back in trip, he concedes he would be up against it with an on-form Shishkin.
"He blatantly didn’t get three miles in the Denman Chase and middle distances suit him well," Nicholls said of Hitman.
"He started the season really well and then went to Kempton and didn’t jump particularly well, but he ran much better at Newbury in a really fast-run race.
"He’s the sort of horse who could run really well in the Ryanair. He’s always there or thereabouts and he could easily run into a place.
"If Shishkin performs like he did the other day, he’ll be unbeatable. He was awesome at Ascot. I thought Pic D’Orhy would win and Shishkin was brilliant.
"Pic D’Orhy probably ran a career-best if you look at the third and the fourth. If Shishkin is in the same form everything else will be running for places I think."
Greaneteen finished six lengths in front of Shishkin in the Tingle Creek back in December, when neither could get near the victorious Edwardstone, but Nicholls believes his three-times Grade One victor is perhaps overpriced for the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase.
"He’s been a grand horse, winning all those races at Sandown and two Haldon Gold Cups," he said.
"He ran at Newbury the other day and was a red-hot favourite and got beat, so he’s gone from 12-1 to 33-1 for the Champion Chase, but actually two years ago he ran exactly the same race at Newbury and he ended up just getting beat at Cheltenham.
"The ground was too fast for him at Newbury, he blew up and then stayed on strongly.
"It would be no surprise to me if he ran really well and finished third or fourth. I’m not saying he’s going to win a Champion Chase, but he’s well capable of running a really tidy race."
Stage Star has multiple options at this stage, with both the three-mile Brown Advisory and two-and-half-mile Turners Novices’ Chase on the radar.
He won over the shorter trip at Cheltenham on Trials Day last month and conditions will be key to his target.
Nicholls said: "He’s been a grand horse. He was a Grade One winner over hurdles, he won first time up over fences at Warwick and I just think he found the ground very fast at Newbury next time.
"We went to Plumpton after Christmas and he won well and then he went to Cheltenham and won on Trials Day.
"He’s in the Turners and the Brown Advisory. We’ll just see what the ground does, but he’ll run in one or the other. If the ground was on the good side I wouldn’t be afraid to go for the Brown Advisory as I think he’ll get three miles, but if it’s on the slower side we can run in the Turners.
"You can run really well and finish third or fourth at Cheltenham, but he’s a progressive horse."
