Ghaiyyath is already the odds-on favourite for the feature race at Leopardstown on Longines Irish Champions Weekend, but it's an even shorter price that he will lead the field for much of the trip in the Irish Champion Stakes.
The Charlie Appleby-trained runner is unbeaten in 2020 after after recording four exuberant front-running successes.
An eight-length demolition job in the 10-furlong Dubai Millenium Stakes at Meydan in March was followed by a victory in the Coronation Cup over a mile and half at Newmarket when racing resumed in Britain in June after its enforced hiatus. Both those performances saw the son of Dubawi lower the previous track records.
He then cut back in trip to defeat Enable in the Eclipse at Sandown and the reopposing Magical in the Juddmonte International at York.
GHAIYYATH completes a great Group 1 hat-trick after landing the @JuddmonteFarms International Stakes in convincing style for
— York Racecourse (@yorkracecourse) August 19, 2020
Charlie Appleby and @godolphin 👏#EborAtHome 🐎 pic.twitter.com/LzpvB3lYgj
As many top horses do, Ghaiyyath lost on his racecourse debut. The two subsequent defeats in his 12-race career have been the subject of much conjecture.
It does seem that Ghaiyyath needs breaks between races, which is sometimes associated with light-framed horse who struggle to maintain condition, but there's nothing light-framed about Ghaiyyath.
However, his gung-ho style is bound to take a serious physical toll on him, even if it doesn't look it. While he races fast early, it's often in the middle of his races where Ghaiyyath clocks his most impressive sectional times, breaking his opponents' hearts in the process. He can finish his races comparatively slowly in the context of the overall time, but that's a result of his run style.
The state of the terrain is another factor to consider in analysing Ghaiyyath's reversals last year in France. Conditions underfoot can't be fast enough for him. French going reports are notorious for exaggerating the moisture level in the ground – and he's never raced on truly testing going – but even good to soft is likely too slow for the five-year-old.
Good ground that's set to get quicker still looks likely at Leopardstown, spelling trouble for his rivals.
Magical by name, Magical by nature. The superstar filly takes the Qipco Irish Champion Stakes. Magic Wand best of the rest #RTEracing
— RTÉ Racing (@RTEracing) September 14, 2019
1. Magical 11-10F
2. Magic Wand 20-1
3. Anthony Van Dyck 12-1#RTEracing pic.twitter.com/Ngcda9UlrB
Defending champion Magical won a slightly underwhelming renewal of the race last year, but has finished first or second in 18 of her 24 career starts, winning 11 of them.
Like Ghaiyyath, she ran in last year's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, doing considerably better than him by finishing fifth. She tracked Ghaiyyath at a pace that proved too brisk, fading late on. Unlike Ghaiyyath, the versatile mare didn't have the state of the going as an excuse.
Second behind Ghaiyyath in the Juddmonte International last time out, where she may have attempted to make up ground on the winner a little too prematurely, it's tough to see her reversing the places.
Ghaiyyath defeats Enable in the @Coral Eclipse and remains unbeaten under William Buick for Charlie Appleby 👏 👏 pic.twitter.com/3LokufA8FA
— Sandown Park (@Sandownpark) July 5, 2020
Stablemate Japan looked in need of the run when disappointing in a poor edition of the Prince of Wales's Stakes on his seasonal debut. However, that's often the case with Aidan O'Brien's older horses on their comebacks. They're campaigned aggressively and generally maintain a high level over many months. Not being wound up first time out allows for that later consistency.
Japan left that Royal Ascot running behind him when third to Ghaiyyath in the Eclipse, but then disappointed in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes, where he trailed home last behind Enable. That effort looked too bad to be true, with a stone bruise subsequently reported.
Recapturing that earlier form behind Ghaiyyath could arguably make him the leading challenger to the favourite.
Jean-Claude Rouget's French raider Sottsass may have disappointed some in his narrow defeat in a Group Three at Deauville last month, but he was returning from his summer break and would have needed that pipe-opener. He also had to concede weight to a rival with an impressive winning ratio, albeit outside Group One level.
Third in last year's Arc, Sottsass won the Prix du Jockey Club earlier that season in a fast time, one that was facilitated by a good early pace and fast ground. He'll face similar conditions on Saturday.
Outsiders Armory and Leo De Fury will both relish the drying ground, but face a massive hike in class as they meet again after contesting a Group Three at the Curragh, where Armory quickened impressively from an unpromising position off a slow pace to score.
His previous form and pedigree suggest a turn of foot may be Armory's main forte, but those attributes may not be allowed to come to the fore in a race the favourite will likely force from an early stage.
Those opposing Ghaiyyath won't be pleased to see daily bulletins revealing drying ground at Leopardstown. They'll cling to the hope that a 24-day break – his shortest of the season so far – isn't sufficient to restore him to the peak of his incredible powers. There may well be something in that theory and if you offered Godolphin the chance to line up in this race at Leopardstown a week later in the calendar, they'd take it.
It's mildly surprising that Aidan O'Brien isn't fielding more runners here from a tactical point of view. We know that Ghaiyyath wins running faster than optimum, but having at least a tandem of pacemakers to harry and eyeball the favourite through the first half of the race would hardly hinder the prospects of a win for Ballydoyle's leading fancy, whichever horse that proves to be.
Magical was the clear second favourite for the Irish Champion Stakes in the ante-post market. She's now drifted in the betting, with the booking of Ryan Moore for Japan seeing them both vie for that mantle. The question over Japan is whether or not he's fully fit after his absence since Ascot. Only the privileged few will know the answer, but the late betting will likely prove illuminating.
Ghaiyyath aside, there's very little between Magical, Japan and Sottsass, but Rouget's runner is the outsider of the three despite looking primed for a big run.
Eight runners would have ensured bookmakers paid three places on this race, as the ante-post market will, but a field of six makes this a tricky race from an each-way perspective.
However, at 8-1, or 11-4 in the betting without the favourite market, Sottsass looks the best value in the race. He could yet usurp Magical for second place in the betting and be the one to give Ghaiyyath most to think about.
Watch live coverage of Irish Champions Weekend from Leopardstown on Saturday on RTÉ One and RTÉ Player from 3pm and from the Curragh on Sunday on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player from 3pm.
