RTÉ Sport’s Jonathan Mullin casts his eye over the action on the second day of the Cheltenham Festival, with eight bets recommended at Prestbury Park.
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1.30 Neptune Investments Management Novices’ Hurdle~
Neon Wolf has come a long way since storming out of the fog to win a Uttoxeter bumper last December and, three months later, arrives at Cheltenham as one of the home team bankers.
Ground could be the Achilles’ heel. From the limited evidence of his four runs, his best have come on softer ground. But he looked very, very good at Haydock last time in a race that has worked out nicely, and he will probably win.
The solid ones against him are Messire Des Obeaux, Consul De Thaix and Barcardys. Messire Des Obeaux has some lovely runs behind him, especially at Sandown and Newbury, and you can put a line through his run at Huntingdon last time. With Bacardys, if you take out a workmanlike win at Leopardstown at Christmas for which there was an excuse, he has done little wrong in his career. He ran well in the Champion Bumper last year and should run his race.
As will Consul De Thaix, a progressive horse who comes here having chased home Brain Power over inadequate distances in two top handicap hurdles. He could be the each-way shout against a short-priced favourite. Kemboy, at a big price, took the eye behind Let’s Dance at Leopardstown last time and with average improvement could run into the frame.
Selection: Consul De Thaix 14-1 and Kemboy 28-1 each-way
2.10 RSA Novices’ Chase
Might Bite divides opinion like few young horses at Cheltenham this week. His ability is not in question but his sensational performance despite not winning at Kempton (he fell at the last when clear) has more people suggesting he would prefer a flat track rather than thinking he is much the best English-trained novice and could blitz this lot. Racing group-think may allow him start at a bigger price than he should despite the fact that he has won around the course before.
A lot could depend on whether Acapella Bourgeois turns up because Sandra Hughes’ exciting chaser is the kind of tear-away that could make things tricky for Might Bite and his jockey Nico De Boinville. A victory for Hughes, daughter of the late Dessie, and jockey Roger Loughran, would be among the more popular wins this week.
He was stunning in deep ground last time but won’t encounter that terrain on Wednesday. He has his chance though, a big one, as does Alpha Des Obeaux. The problem with Alpha Des Obeaux is that so far he has looked a much inferior chaser than he was a hurdler - odd, considering all during his hurdle career he had been talked about as a future chaser. But there are plenty willing to forgive the mediocre profile he brings to the race given Mouse Morris’s reputation for peaking horses for these big spring festivals.
Bellshill fell at Leopardstown in his last race and followed it up with a fall in a schooling race soon after, and that is far from ideal. That said the recent vibes about him have been strong so he is not one to discount.
Selection: Might Bite 4-1
2.50 Coral Cup
Never before - and it’s getting worse - has the run-up to Cheltenham been dominated by horses’ plans up in the air with their final target any number of races. Tombstone was one of the worst offenders, first being suggested as a supplementary entry for the Champion Hurdle, then favourite for the County Hurdle before a late change to the Coral Cup. He has a big chance, no question, and could be just be better than these, even allowing for the competitive handicap it often is and the fact he has never raced this far.
Consul De Thaix would have been intriguing but gives this a skip and Hargam, in the same colours, deserves mention if we can presume he is seen as a replacement. There are strong whispers for the progressive Tin Soldier, and with his profile and the fact he represents Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh, he is sure to be popular despite not looking a likely type for a helter-skelter handicap like this. Roger Loughran has another prime ride on the card and Peter Fahey’s Peregrine Run has both a nice mark and top course form, enough for him to go very close.
Selection: Tombstone 11-2
3.30 Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase
This might be a tipping advice piece but sometimes you have to reholster and just sit back and watch, and Douvan’s expected coronation on the Champion Chase is one of those occasions. He is unbeaten in 13 races since joining Willie Mullins from France and it will take something horrific for this not to be number 14.
A majestic beast, he has won at successive Cheltenham festivals, in the Supreme of 2015 and the Arkle of 2016. If you were being picky you could say that both runs were on quicker ground than he routinely encounters in Ireland and he hasn’t impressed as much as he has at home. But it is still good enough to be much the best, and there’s nothing in the opposition of nine today that should trouble him unduly. Watch and enjoy.
4.10 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase
Often the race with the most complex course layout and the most simple betting strategy - but this year looks different. Probably because the favourite - Cantlow - hasn’t taken on the rock-solid look everybody presumed he would have after his stablemate Josie’s Order was ruled out of the festival. Both are trained by the ‘cross country king’, Enda Bolger, who also has the third favourite Auvergnat. That pair, and the market springer Cause Of Causes, are all owned by JP McManus who really has this race by the scruff of the neck. Cause Of Causes loves quick ground and some sun on his back, and has won at the last two Cheltenham festivals too, in the 2015 four-miler and last year’s Kim Muir. If he handles the course (and he didn’t look that comfortable on it in January) he will go very close, but Cantlow is a safer conveyance.
Selection: Cantlow 11-4
4.50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Two tricky holes to conclude the card and par-par would be a good score, starting with the ultra-competitive Fred Winter. The problem with this race as a betting puzzle is that most are inexperienced hurdlers with a Flat-racing background and there is little or no collateral form to make a logical choice.
This race is often considered an overflow or a consolation for horses not good enough to win Friday’s Triumph Hurdle, and two horses have led the way in the market for the past week: the Nicky Henderson Divin Bere whose form is strong enough to entitle him run in Friday’s race, and the Tony Martin-trained Long Call. Both bring compelling cases to court.
Not always, but sometimes it can pay to side with a horse bringing lots of experience to the table and Project Bluebook satisfies that demand. Between Flat and jumps runs he totals 14, and the penultimate one of those, a victory at Musselburgh, was enough for leading owner JP McManus to open up the chequebook and add him to his portfolio. Luckless back at the same venue last time, he shouldn’t be dismissed from calculations and is worth a small each-way wager.
Selection: Divin Bere 6-1, Project Bluebook 14-1
5.30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper
Carter McKay looked the best Irish horse coming into the race and, with Ireland’s strong record in the race, that tag is traditionally good enough to take this contest. But the market drift in the past week has been noticeably persistent about Willie and Patrick Mullins’ charge, and suggests all has not gone well at a crucial time. We will see.
The travelling contingent have strong back-up: the Gordon Elliott-trained Fayonagh impressed greatly last time and Jessica Harrington’s Someday won a competitive Leopardstown bumper on his last start.
But Dan Skelton’s yard have crept back into form at the right time and he’s making all the right noises about Cause Toujours. He may have come from the Irish point to point field but on his sole racecourse start - and win - at Warwick suggested he was all about pace. If that speed can be kept under lock and key until needed, it could prove decisive.
Selection: Cause Toujours 9-1
