It's the busiest day's action in the Irish racing calendar with three meetings on St Stephen's Day and Jonathan Mullin takes a race-by-race look.
LEOPARDSTOWN
12.15 Horse and Jockey Hotel Maiden Hurdle
Leading owner JP McManus has won the last four runnings of this race - and with some classy types too - so it might pay to take great notice of his Outspoken. A talented sort for Aidan O’Brien on the flat, he was a little unlucky not to win on his hurdle debut at Fairyhouse last year when a last hurdle mistake handed the initiative to the Willie Mullins-trained Allblak Des Places.
Off the track since then, he gives McManus and trainer Joseph O’Brien a strong chance of landing the opening race of St Stephen’s Day in Ireland. O’Brien also fields one of the opposition, in decent bumper horse Imperial Way, but it could well be Mullins who will again provide the biggest test. He and jockey Ruby Walsh team up with Bunk Off Early who was bought out of the Andy Oliver stable last year.
Mullins did extremely well with a previous Oliver-trained horse, Long Dog, so caution is required and early support on Friday evening suggests a big run is expected. But even so, Outspoken’s flat form trumps the Mullins horse and he has hurdle experience too; it’s enough to get the vote.
12.45 Thorntons Recycling Maiden Hurdle
Some familiar match-ups here: Mullins v Elliott, McManus v Gigginstown - you get the picture. Mullins trains Castello Sforza for McManus, a talented bumper horse who did okay on his hurdle debut. Gordon Elliott looks after Barra for Gigginstown, and she ran a lovely race behind Invitation Only at Gowran on her Irish debut and there’s a dark horse lurking in the background too, the Joseph O’Brien-trained Felix Mendelssohn.
Typically a nice maiden hurdle, this year it’s as intriguing as ever and maybe the mares’ allowance will swing it Barra’s way.
1.15 Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle
It’s quite the early afternoon for young Joseph O’Brien and not an hour into the action at Leopardstown, he will saddle the current ante post favourite for the Triumph Hurdle in Landofhopeandglory. He appears to have everything going for him: a lovely flat career behind him, jumps well, a good attitude over hurdles and is three from three over timber. And yet, without serious justification, there is that niggling feeling that defeat is just around the corner.
On Monday O'Brien has the two horses he beat at Fairyhouse last time - Bapaume and Mega Fortune - to beat again and although he is a pound better off with both, there are reasons why both could beat him this time. I’m guessing it will be Bapaume who, despite getting the run of the race at Fairyhouse, probably has most scope for improvement.
1.50 Cardinal Capital Handicap Hurdle
A hot handicap for the grade and the winner will need to have a few pounds in hand. The top weight, Blast Of Koeman, doesn’t look harshly treated off an opening mark of 116 but does concede hurdle experience all around.
Dawerann is the one that leaps highest from the page, penalised just six pounds for winning easily at Punchestown last time. Ruby Walsh takes over in the saddle and connections could have returned to Limerick for a hurdle or gone to Down Royal for a 0-102 chase, so their choice of engagement looks significant and he will take beating.
If there weren’t so many attractively-handicapped horses in the race, Deano would have been on a long shortlist, but as well as the selection, Artful Artist will someday fulfil his hurdle potential, and both Concordin and Akorakor lurk on decent marks.
2.20 Racing Post Novice Chase
Arvada Legionnaire and Douvan have won this twice for Mullins and owner Rich Ricci in the past four years but sandwiched in between were shock defeats for Vautour and Champagne Fever.
This time around there are seven runners but it concerns two, and again, Mullins and Ricci are to the fore. They saddle Min, a high class novice hurdler last season, and a classy jumps recruit who comes here on the back of winning the same Navan beginners’ chase Mullins reserved for both Vautour and Douvan. Unlike Douvan last year, Min won’t have it all his own way though because the Henry De Bromhead-trained Identity Thief brings to the table both a strong hurdling back catalogue and an impressive start to his chasing career.
There is a suspicion - held personally anyway - that the Gigginstown horse may be in time better suited to 2m4f, and if that holds true on Monday, Min may just have too much speed for his rival. Expect Identity Thief to put up quite the fight though, and maybe the 16-1 about his chances for the JLT Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham could be one small ante-post bet to get into the bag.
2.55 Bet Through The Racing Post App Handicap Chase
History suggests that those at the bottom of the handicap are the ones to concentrate on and JP McManus sends two into battle that fit that bill: Riviera Sun and Coolaghknock Glebe. Both have had their fencing issues - indeed a last fence mistake cost Riviera Sun the race in Cork the last day - but both are feared should they be anything close to foot-perfect.
With those doubts lingering though, and Coolaghknock Glebe turned out so quickly after his seasonal reappearance at Navan just the other week, maybe Lake Takapuna is worth a good look. He’s just five-years-old but jumps like an old hand and appeals as one who could go very close at an each-way price.
3.30 Lep Inn INH Flat Race
It’s never too wise to be playing the man and not the ball but in a race as open as this, and with no Mullins-trained contender, a market check for the Chris Jones-owned Paloma Blue mightn’t be the worst thing. Jones is a director of Leopardstown and is not averse to having a youngster prepped for this: Space Cadet won it two years ago for Jones, and Noble Endeavour in 2013. But that’s just a guess. Those looking for something more solid should probably stick with Gordon Elliott’s Midnight Escape who boasts strong pointing form and a very decent opening attempt over hurdles. He will take most of the beating.
LIMERICK
12.25 Holmes O’Malley Sexton 3YO Maiden Hurdle
Twice a winner on heavy ground in his native Germany (though you’d wonder what the Germans would make of what’s described as Heavy at Limerick most Christmasses!), and a horse who stayed nearly a mile and a half on the flat, Leomar has enough going for him to take the opener on what’s a busy day for Gordon Elliott and Gigginstown House Stud. The fact that connections also provide the horse with the best hurdle form in the book, merely adds to the favourite’s credentials.
12.55 Signsplus Hurdle
Despite limited racecourse experience and being off the track for some time, Allblak Des Places brings the most attractive credentials into the race and will be fancied to win this for Willie Mullins, a trainer who farms these kind of events in Limerick over the festive period. Val De Ferbet deserves to win a race like this but just doesn’t finish his races with the same promise he travels through them, and the admirable Runfordave is on the upgrade.
If the market suggests Runfordave will handle the ground he is probably the one to be with, but in the absence of knowing that, a small stake on outsider Consharon Boy might provide most fun.
1.25 futureticketing.ie Maiden Hurdle
A race that demonstrates the rise in quality of maiden and novice events at Limerick. In any normal year Champagne Classic would have looked a certainty for a maiden hurdle at this venue after a fine second on his jumps debut at Punchestown last time but faces a stiff task to not just see off Without Limites - like Champagne Classic, a dual bumper winner who now has his ground over hurdles - but also from the Mullins-trained Bravissimo.
He has run just once and that was in finishing third at Pau all of two years ago, but unlike his rivals he carries no penalty for winning a race and therefore any market confidence behind him would prove ominous. Bookmakers have made Without Limites an each-way price though, and that tilts the verdict his way.
2.00 Shannon Airport Novice Chase
This day last year Patrick Mullins had the ride of his life aboard Douvan in the Racing Post Chase at Leopardstown, and a year on he takes the plum ride on Haymount in the feature race at Limerick, the Shannon Airport Novice Chase.
The jockey’s father holds a strong hand with Bellshill, the mount of Paul Townend, also in the race and wherever Mullins goes these days, Gordon Elliott follows: he sends Diamond King, a Cheltenham festival winner dropped in class after running in the Drinmore last time. Bellshill got his career back on track last spring after fluffing his lines last Christmas and there was enough in his opening chase run to suggest he can win this.
2.35 O’Kelly Brothers Demolition Mares Handicap Hurdle
They say four-year-olds struggle to give weight away to their elders and yet Never Again appeals as being nicely handicapped at a track she loves, on ground she gets through easily and for a trainer in good form who trains plenty of winners at Limerick. Jonjo Walsh has left Never Again off since last spring but she has won fresh and the literal balance of her form gives her an outstanding chance. It’s an interesting little handicap with the many holding chances despite either the trip or the ground not quite in their favour.
3.05 Mr Binman Handicap Chase
Pause And Ponder travelled like the horse he promised to be in his younger days when winning over hurdles at Navan last time. He took advantage of a low mark over hurdles in early December and can do likewise over fences on Monday. Off just 10-stone and Philip Enright coming to Limerick rather than heading to Leopardstown, all should be in place for a big run. As handicap chases go at this level this is a good one with some young chasers promising plenty of their relatively fresh handicap marks.
3.40 Lyons Of Limerick Jaguar And Land Rover Mares INH Flat Race
There won’t be much of a Christmas dinner for Patrick Mullins who is booked to do 11-6 on Miss Sapphire in the concluding bumper. Her mother was a bumper winner for Mags Mullins once upon a time and the four-year-old can continue the family tradition.
DOWN ROYAL
12.20 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners’ Chase
Horses trained by Gordon Elliott and Noel Meade increasingly hold the key to races at Down Royal and Monday’s meeting is no different. Indeed, Meade begins the day with a strong chance courtesy of Burgas in this, a horse who came to him by way of the Gigginstown/Mullins split and has his chance based on good hurdle form and a respectable start to his career over fences when chasing home Yorkhill in vain the other week. He is respected.
The connections of Art of Payroll, who sets a high standard with a mark of 135 over fences, come here and forgo a chance to run for big money in the Paddy Power Chase on Tuesday. They have run into an above-average beginners’ chase for the fixture though. Arguably, Last Goodbye has achieved a similar level of form in just his two runs and has his chance.
Ultimately though the key to this race could be about monitoring market confidence behind Falcon Crest. He was the classiest of these over hurdles and comes to chasing now after a year from the track. He will need to be a little more nimble than his half-brother Indian File was over fences but Christy Roche has his yard in good fettle and he may be good enough to win at first time of asking.
12.50 Adam And Ann Armstrong Memorial Handicap Chase
Small stakes the order of the day here in a race that traditionally sees locally-trained horses provide plenty of the runners, as well as a host of horses coming back to the track from running under Rules. Refused A Name ticks neither the local or the Point to Point box but comes here in good form, retains a reasonably attractive handicap mark and has course and distance winning form - never a bad thing.
1.20 Silks@Downroyal Hunters Chase
This is traditionally a hunters chase to savour and Monday’s renewal is no different. This time last year Foxrock came within a length of winning the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown but he hasn’t looked entirely in love with the game since and it appears plans to plot a banks campaign have already come unstuck. Instead he heads down the hunter chase route and is a welcome and classy recruit. But this is no walk in the park.
Two weeks ago he was beaten by Balnaslow at Borris House and has to overturn that form, and that’s before he even begins encountering the free-going Valmy Baie and the quirky but very talented Grand Jesture. The last named refused to race on his last two racecourse appearances but looked like he was back in love with life when winning at Loughbrickland for Jamie Codd.
Whether Valmy Baie’s jumping will withstand a racecourse test is a big question but he has been sensational since joining David Christie and with the handler applying a hood for the first time, perhaps Barry O’Neill can keep enough in reserve to take some serious scalps.
1.55 INH Stallion Owners EBF Maiden Hurdle
The Storyteller is a bit unfortunate to be coming to the Christmas of his fifth year still a maiden over hurdles and his two unluckiest racecourse experiences came here at Down Royal. He made a horlicks of the last when second to stablemate Cogryhill on debut last year and back in November another stablemate, Monbeg Notorious, benefited from his fall at the second last.
Victory could easily have been achieved on either start but this looks his turn as long as the ground doesn’t deteriorate completely. His trainer, Gordon Elliott, has won three of the past five runnings of this race, and this should make it four from six.
2.30 Enda Bell Maiden Hurdle
Gordon Elliott and Noel Meade dominate the maiden hurdles at the track and, with Robin Des Mana and Black Ace, hold chances here. That said it might be worth siding with the Maria Richert-trained Turbojet who has maiden hurdle form at least the equal of the Meade and Elliott representatives. Turbojet’s owners, the Conway family, are no strangers to winners at the track, and this could be another
3.00 Martinstown Opportunity Handicap Hurdle
No matter what his form has been like coming into the race, Court Jester is a standing dish at Down Royal on December 26 and returns again for a race he has won once and finished third on three occasions. He’s not getting any better but you get the sense he will be primed for Monday’s contest. In an open-looking race where small stakes are a must, he’s the most likely to give you a run for your money.
3.20 Bet With The Tote INH Flat Race
Katie Walsh, at the meeting to ride Foxrock, stays around to ride Blairs Cove for Paddy Twomey in the bumper. His third to Cilaos Emery at Punchestown reads every better for the summer break and while it’s a strong suspicious he would prefer better ground, he might have more scope for improvement than those representing Messrs Meade and Elliott.
Watch live coverage of Day One from Leopardstown on RTE2 from 12:50pm to 3:10pm on St Stephen's Day
Listen to live coverage from Leopardstown and Limerick and on the King George at Kempton Park on RTÉ Radio 1 from 1.0pm on St Stephen's Day
