By Declan Meagher
Declan Meagher is the author of the website learnbetwin.com
EMS Copiers Novice Handicap Chase [4.20pm]
The EMS Copiers Novice Handicap Chase has a few that look ahead of their marks in it.
Avant Tout certainly looks capable of winning a big chase or even hurdle off his mark, but he found this trip a bit short in the Coral at Cheltenham and, while a more prominent ride might help, I’d prefer him over three miles.
Marlbrook is very interesting. He has progressed with each chase start so far, last time easily winning at Naas, and he still looks well handicapped off a mark 11 pound higher.
If Pairofbrowneyes turns out again after a very good third to two well handicapped horses on Wednesday, he would surely have a good chance off the same mark.
Marlbrook is currently 6/1, and Pairofbrowneyes is 10/1. Both are worth win bets.
Hanlon Concrete Mares Handicap Chase [4.55pm]
The Hanlon Concrete Mares Handicap Chase is over a trip of two miles and five furlongs.
I strongly fancied Bonny Kate for the Irish National last time, but having moved smoothly into contention jumping the fifth last, she was beaten a fence later.
It certainly wasn’t the trip that beat her, as she had won over similar, and it was too far out for it to be that anyway.
She stopped so quickly it looked like she must have gone wrong. Presumably she’s fine since or connections wouldn’t run such a promising mare, and she really does look like a very well handicapped horse on her previous progressive form.
Despite the fact the trip is not as short as she’d want, she should take beating if back on song. Bonny Kate is currently 13/2 and that looks a good bet.
Betdaq Punchestown Champion Hurdle [Grade One, 5.30pm]
The Betdaq Punchestown Champion Hurdle is the big race of the day, and in a surprise development the red-hot antepost favourite Annie Power was not declared, with her connections relying instead on Vroom Vroom Mag as their main hope.
While it’s disappointing not to get to see Annie Power [above] in action, it does make it more interesting as a betting heat.
My Tent Or Yours was a very good hurdler two seasons ago, winning the Fighting Fifth and the Christmas Hurdle, and it was only his tendency to pull extremely hard that prevented him from winning the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham, eventually going down by a neck to Jezki, but leaving the impression he could do much better again if he ever learned to settle.
He was off injured for almost two years after another run at Ayr that season, reappearing in this year’s Champion Hurdle, and it was a great training performance to have him well enough to come second to Annie Power.
He was ridden far more prominently than usual, and kept going well enough in the straight to be beaten just four and a half lengths.
Last time he stepped up in trip to two and a half miles at Aintree, but that was never likely to suit him, and after travelling well into the straight his stamina gave out.
It was notable that he settled better at both Cheltenham and especially Aintree than he used to, and the fact he was ridden close to the pace at Cheltenham opens up more options tactically too.
We’ve already seen this week that horses running in all three festivals can find this one race too many, but Barry Geraghty was easy on him once beaten at Aintree, and it’s not as if he had a hard season before Cheltenham.
Vroom Vroom Mag is a fascinating contender. She is unbeaten for Willie since coming from France, winning six chases, before going back over hurdles this season, and winning all three starts so far.
Her best chase form was over two and a half miles on heavy ground, while her best run over hurdles this year was over a trip of just shy of three miles at Ascot, so she will find this a very different test.
She easily won the mares' hurdle at Cheltenham last time, but that’s several classes removed from this type of race.
Her hurdles form is a long way short of what My Tent Or Yours has achieved, but she is unbeaten for the stable, and her manner of victory means there’s a good bit of guesswork involved in estimated her capabilities, especially over a trip this short.
Identity Thief has improved this season, winning a Grade Two at Down Royal, before winning the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle, but he had no excuses when beaten by Nichols Canyon at Leopardstown over Christmas and was well beaten in the Champion Hurdle.
I don’t see any reason to think he’s much better than what he’s shown, and that won’t be good enough to beat a peak from My Tent Or Yours. He does have the advantage of having skipped Aintree though.
Sempre Medici won a Grade Three at Naas and a Grade Two at Gowran this season, but that form would be a good way short of the required level to win this, and he was pulled up in the Champion Hurdle last time, while Fethard Player and Ted Veale would need to step up hugely on anything they’ve done before to win this.
Vroom Vroom Mag is the unknown here, but she’s only 9/4, and that looks too short to me.
I don’t think Identity Thief is a top two-mile hurdler and his chances are dependent on My Tent Or Yours running a good bit below his best.
My Tent Or Yours may not be quite as good as he was two seasons back, but his recent Champion Hurdle second is much better form than any of the others have achieved, and the 15/8 available still looks too big.
Tattersalls Ireland Champion Novice Hurdle, [Grade One, 6.05pm]
The Tattersalls Ireland Champion Novice Hurdle is run over two miles and four furlongs.
A Toi Phil bids to bounce back to form after a disappointing run at Cheltenham last time. He was beaten before the third last, and as such was spared a hard race.
All his previous form was on soft ground, and it could be the faster conditions were against him at Cheltenham.
With plenty of heavy showers around it would be a surprise if the going at Punchestown wasn’t soft by Friday evening.
In a Grade Two win at Leopardstown in January, he beat Acapella Bourgeois by seven lengths, with Wednesday winner Woodland Opera another eleven lengths back in third, so he would take plenty of beating should conditions suit.
Jer’s Girl had some very decent form with the top juvenile hurdlers, despite doing a bit much too soon on occasion, and she seemed to improve for the step up to two and a half miles, when easily winning a Grade One at Fairyhouse last time.
That was a weak race for the grade, but she won it by 13 lengths, and again receives the generous mares and four-year-old allowance on Friday.
Disko was second in the Champion Bumper at Punchestown last season, and after a surprise defeat at Galway in October, he easily won his maiden hurdle at Naas in November.
He has plenty of potential to do much better, but he hasn’t been seen since due to lameness, and this is a big step up in class.
Thomas Hobson was progressive before pulling up at Cheltenham, and while O O Seven also ran poorly at Cheltenham, he’d have a chance on some of his previous efforts.
Lift The Latch was beaten over ten lengths when fifth to Acapella Bourgeois at Fairyhouse last time, and while that form wouldn’t be good enough, he did go off 2/1 favourite that day on the back of two previous wins, and is capable of better.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Disko ended up being the best of these, but he has injury issues to overcome, and I think A Toi Phil can bounce back to form and take this.
Jer’s Girl has already won at Grade One level, but I think the Grade Two that A Toi Phil won at Leopardstown was a stronger race, and he won it with more in hand than the seven length margin. The 100/30 available looks a good bet.
The Star Best For Racing Coverage Novice Hurdle, [6.40]
The Star Best For Racing Coverage Novice Hurdle is a two-mile race, and on what they’ve done on the track Bello Conti will take all the beating, having come fourth at both the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals.
He does have to back up those efforts after two hard races, but this is a big drop in class for him, and he could probably get away with being a little below his best and still win.
He's currently odds on and I wouldn't recommend backing him at that, but if he drifted to odds against he'd be worth a small bet.
