By Declan Meagher
Declan Meagher is the author of the website learnbetwin. For more, visit learnbetwin.com
The Grand National fences have had numerous modifications in recent years with the aim of improving safety for both horse and rider.
These changes have led some to claim that the fences have become too easy and fail to provide any more of a jumping test than normal fences.
I did some research using data from the last six years and my findings do not back up this theory at all, with 32.6% of runners falling or unseating in the Grand National, compared to just 9.4% in other big handicap chases run over further than three miles.
The 2015 winner Many Clouds can certainly jump, really taking to the course when coming out on top last year.
The good ground that day would have been a concern beforehand as his best form prior to that was almost all on soft.
No horse has won back-to-back Grand Nationals since Red Rum in 1974, but they don’t normally get to run off just five pounds higher the following year like Many Clouds does on Saturday.
Despite the fact that the official handicapper normally penalises horses who have run well over the course previously, he has actually given Many Clouds a one-pound lower mark for the National than his current chase rating.
I thought Many Clouds was idling on the run in last season, and won with more in hand than the one-and-three-quarter-length margin suggests.
His form since suggests he’s at least as good as ever, and while he came into last year’s National off the back of a hard race in the Gold Cup, his preparation this time was an easy win at Kelso.
The softer ground this year is also in his favour, as despite his win on good last year, he does look better with a bit of cut, and it brings his seemingly limitless stamina more into play too.
Silviniaco Conti has won plenty of Grade 1 chases in his time, but I don’t think he’s as good as he was, and the easy win at Ascot last time was more due to the other main contenders failing to run any sort of a race.
His stamina has previously looked stretched in the Gold Cup, and while some claim that’s because he doesn’t like Cheltenham, I don’t buy it.
He seems to travel well up to a point, and just hasn’t got home, so this extra mile has to be a huge doubt.
Having won since the National weights came out, The Last Samuri gets to run off a 12-pound lower mark than he will in future handicaps, and as such he looks very well handicapped.
He jumps well, looks like he might well appreciate this test of stamina, and as such he looks a very strong contender.
Holywell was running well in Grade 1 races at his best, but after losing his form a bit he got to run off a mark of 153 at Cheltenham last time, when he bounced back to form with a good second.
He has a reasonable chance of getting this longer trip, but his jumping would be a concern for me.
Despite not jumping as well as the winner, Saint Are came second in last season’s Grand National, and looks well treated off three pounds higher on Saturday. He will need to jump better though, and I don’t think the softer ground is in his favour.
The Druids Nephew was travelling very well when he fell five out last year, having jumped really well up to that point. His stamina was a question mark going into the race though, and he runs off a nine-pound higher mark this season.
Shutthefrontdoor didn’t appear to stay in the 2015 National, and with the ground likely to be a good bit softer on Saturday, it’s hard to see him do any better than the fifth place position he achieved that day.
Goonyella has some good form in staying handicaps but he hasn’t done much in two tries over these fences, while Gallant Oscar is a horse who looks well handicapped, but his jumping isn’t without fault, and he needs to prove himself over this trip too.
O’Faolains Boy was beaten a long way in the Gold Cup last time, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.
He was clear with the three main contenders jumping the fourth last, before forcing an unsustainable pace for his ability meant he hit the wall soon after. He did enough both that day and when winning at Newbury back in December to suggest a mark of 156 is reasonable, and if he stays this trip he has a decent chance.
Morning Assembly is still unexposed after just eight chase starts, and was a good fourth at Cheltenham last time. He ended up beaten 17 lengths, but made a jarring mistake when going very well jumping the third last. The ground lost and the energy cost with such a mistake cost him what looked a good chance of winning, and this normally good jumper has looked like the step up in trip might well suit.
The Romford Pele is another who has shaped like a step up in trip would suit. He stayed on well when seventh at Cheltenham back in November, his mark looks workable, and he has shown his wellbeing with two good runs over hurdles since.
To make money gambling you need to be backing horses that win more often than the odds you’re backing them at suggest, and I think there’s five in this that are overpriced.
While I wouldn’t put anyone off backing The Last Samuri at the current 10/1, or The Romford Pele at 50/1, I’m going to suggest backing just three.
Many Clouds may be favourite, but at 8/1 he still looks too big a price to me. He has so much in favour that I think 5/1 would better reflect his chances and he is my main bet.
My next best would be Morning Assembly at 25/1, while for a smaller stake I think it’s worth backing O’Faolains Boy at 33/1 as well.
Back all three each way, and make sure you place the bet with a bookmaker that is going at least five places.
Watch racing from Aintree live on RTÉ 2 and RTÉ Player from 3.20pm. The Grand National is off at 5.15pm.
