By Declan Meagher
Declan Meagher is the author of the website learnbetwin. For more visit learnbetwin.com.
3.05 - Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Mares Novice Hurdle Championship Final (Grade 1)
The first of two grade one races on the Fairyhouse Easter Sunday card is the Mares Novice Hurdle Championship Final, with the Harry Fry trained Jessber’s Dream currently heading the market.
She has won three of her five hurdle starts so far, showing gradual improvement with each start, most recently winning a grade two at Sandown by eight lengths. That form puts her bang in the picture for this, with the likelihood of more improvement to come.
The one concern here is that all her hurdles form is on heavy ground, and her action also suggests that is her optimal conditions.
Currently the Fairyhouse ground is described as Yielding, Good to Yielding in places, and while they are due some more rain on Saturday evening and possibly Sunday morning, it’s probably unlikely the ground will turn really soft.
Jer’s Girl has been recently bought by JP McManus and she has some strong hurdles form to her name.
She won her first two hurdle starts, before coming second, beaten just a head in a grade two at Leopardstown over Christmas. I thought she went like the best horse that day, but possibly did a little much too soon, and got nailed late by Apple’s Jade.
That form couldn’t have worked out better, with the winner going close in the Triumph Hurdle, while Footpad who was eight lengths behind Jer’s Girl that day, was third in the Triumph, and Campeador back in fourth at Leopardstown, would likely have been second in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham if he hadn’t fallen at the last.
Jer’s Girl ran slightly below that form last time, again at Leopardstown, when fifth in a grade one, but she was only a head behind the Triumph Hurdle winner Ivanovich Gorbatov, with Footpad winning the race, and Let’s Dance, who came fourth in the Triumph finishing third that day, so once again it was pretty strong form, against much better rivals than she is likely to meet here.
Jer’s Girl also had excuses that day, as despite Ruby setting a decent pace on Let’s Dance, Robbie Power decided to kick on about half a mile out, and predictably paid for that in the straight.
It’s hard to know if Ruby choosing to ride Asthuria is a positive for her, or a negative for Myska, who has the best form of the pair, but ran poorly last time.
If she bounces back she looked like a progressive mare before that reverse at Punchestown, but if she was really pleasing them, then you’d expect Ruby to be on board, unless they think that the French import, Asthuria, is really good.
It’s a bit of a guessing game with them, but Jer’s Girl has some very strong form for this level. I don’t think the extra trip will be a problem, as long as she is paced more optimally, and at 4/1 she looks a good bet.
3.40 - Agnelli Motor Park Novice Hurdle (Grade 2)
The 3.40 race is a grade two novice hurdle, and with plenty of unexposed horses set to face the starter, it looks well up to scratch for the grade.
Lift the Latch is two for two over hurdles, last time doing well to put six lengths between himself and the runner up, off what was only a steady pace, his jockey only needed to push him out to do so.
It’s hard to estimate his capabilities from that run or his maiden hurdle win, but while the rivals he meets are vastly superior to the ones he encountered so far, he clearly has plenty of scope to do better too.
American is a Harry Fry-trained raider from the UK, and while he improved on his hurdling debut when winning at Ascot back in November, he briefly looked beaten between the last two hurdles, before battling back on the run in, looking like a horse who would benefit from a step up to three miles, rather than a drop in trip to two and a half.
Acapella Bourgeois has won two of his four hurdle starts, and he seemed to settle better last time, when winning at Thurles, than he had in his previous three runs, doing well to overcome a mistake at the last, to beat Nambour by five lengths.
He didn’t have anything extra in hand though, and I don’t think that form will be good enough to win this race.
The fact Bryan Cooper picked Nambour in this could be seen as a negative to Fire in Soul’s chances, as he rode that one when he made a winning debut in a maiden hurdle at Clonmel, going clear after the last for a seven length victory.
The bare form won’t be good enough to win this, but he was a little green that day, and is clearly capable of doing much better, were as Nambour has now been beaten the last twice, and doesn’t have quite the same scope.
"Our Duke won at Leopardstown in January but ran poorly last time, and would need to improve in any case"
Our Duke won at Leopardstown in January but ran poorly last time, and would need to improve in any case.
Alto Esqua is of much more interest having impressively won his maiden hurdle at Clonmel on his only start. He was green that day when going to the front, and left the impression he was quite a bit more superior than the six length margin suggests, with the runner up doing the form no harm by winning easily next time.
Crest is another contender in this, who has won his only start so far, a three and three quarter length win over Kashmiri Sunset at Navan two weeks ago.
He cantered to the front that day, and after initially looking around a bit, he knuckled down well after the last, and was going away at the line. He left the impression there was much more to come, and despite Bryan Copper not selecting him here, he looks to have a decent chance.
Lift the Latch is probably the most likely winner, but his price reflects that, and I don’t understand how unexposed, impressive maiden winners Crest and Alto Esqua are a much bigger price than some more exposed horses, whose bare form doesn’t look much better than theirs.
Both Crest and Alto Esqua are currently 20/1, and both look very good bets at that price.
4.15 - Ryanair Gold Cup Novice Steeplechase (Grade 1)
The big race of the day, is the Ryanair Gold Cup Novice Chase at 4.15pm, with Outlander seeking compensation for his fall four out in the JLT at Cheltenham.
He was still travelling quite well at the time, and just seemed to get caught out with the downhill fence, not getting the landing gear out in time, after jumping it fine. In winning his first three chase starts, Outlander has generally jumped very well, and a repeat of the form of his easy win in a grade one at Leopardstown in February would make him very hard to beat in this.
The ground at Cheltenham may have been a bit quick for him, but anything between good to soft, and heavy will be fine for him, and while the quick turnaround from Cheltenham wouldn’t normally be ideal, the race was only starting to hot up when he departed so he didn’t have a hard race.
Kylemore Lough has won four of his five chase starts, three handicaps and a graduation chase at Exeter.
Despite him only beating a total of just 13 horses in those wins, he is actually rated higher than Outlander, who has decent grade-one winning form.
One of the major flaws with the official handicap system is that the pounds per lengths scales used doesn’t adequately compensate for ability differences, and this is why higher weighted horses win more often, than ones lower down.
It is also why horses who win handicaps easily, when giving weight to inferior rivals end up rated too high, and while Kylemore Lough is progressive and can clearly improve, I would in no way agree with the handicapper’s assessment that his best form is five pounds better than Outlanders.
The others look to have their work cut out to win this, although Otago Trail looked progressive before running poorly last time.
Outlander looks like easily the most likely winner, and although his current price of 7/4 doesn’t offer any huge value, I would have him shorter, and he looks worth a bet, while if he was to drift to 2/1, then I’d regard him as a decent bet.
4.50 - Boylesports Novice Handicap Steeplechase (Grade B)
The Boylesports Novice Handicap Chase is at 4.50, and while I’ve no strong opinion on the race, Balnagon Boy is unexposed after just four chase starts, and looks reasonably treated off a mark of 126.
He won over two miles at Fairyhouse before two placed efforts upped to two and a half miles, the latest of those when second to Marlbrook at Fairyhouse.
He was flattered to get within three and a half lengths of the winner, but he was giving him four pound, and Marlbrook has since easily won off a mark of 132. Balnagon Boy looks worth a small win bet at the current 15/2.
Live coverage of the Easter Festival at Fairyhouse begins on RTÉ2 from 2.30pm Sunday
