By Declan Meagher
Irish Champion Hurdle, 3.05pm
The BHP Insurances Irish Champion Hurdle is the big race at Leopardstown today, with a field of five set to go to post. As the two outsiders are both bigger than 100/1, this is effectively a three-horse race.
But with those horses currently also first, second and third favourite for the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham in March, then it’s clearly the best two-mile hurdle of the season so far. Another notable fact is that Willie Mullins trains all three.
Faugheen’s record over hurdles is ten wins from 11 starts, the solitary defeat coming on his first run this season at Punchestown in November when his stable companion Nichols Canyon beat him by half a length.
Nichols Canyon got an easy lead that day, and battled well to hold Faugheen’s renewed effort close home. With Wicklow Brave just over a length further back in third, the only reasonable conclusion is that Faugheen failed to run his race and the fact that he hung under pressure would seem to back that up.
Faugheen bounced back to easily win at Kempton over Christmas, going with more zest and beating The New One by seven lengths. However, despite winning at Haydock that one doesn’t look as good as he was and Hargam was only just behind him in third, so the form doesn’t amount to too much, despite Faugheen winning in style.
Faugheen won last season’s Champion Hurdle by just one and a half lengths from Arctic Fire and it’s hard to claim he was value for any extra as he set just an even pace in front. It’s hard to rate any of his other form higher than that, which makes him a very good horse but on bare form at least he has a way to go to justify comparisons with horses like Istabraq.
Nichols Canyon won four grade ones as a novice last season but came up short in the best race he contested, which was at the Cheltenham festival in March. While he’s won both his starts this season, in open grade one company, I find it very hard to think he’s improved much, if at all, and I don’t think many had him down as a likely top class two-mile hurdler at the end of last season.
If you removed Faugheen from the equation, nobody would have claimed he improved when beating Wicklow Brave by under 2l and it’s much more likely Faugheen was below his best than the other pair suddenly both improved a stone.
Last time Nichols Canyon showed how tough he was in battling back to beat Identity Thief at Leopardstown, but in doing so he only served to consolidate the opinion that he’s much the same horse as he was last year, or else Identity Thief is also a top notch two-miler too and I really don’t see it.
Arctic Fire put up a career best when second to Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham and looked set to back that up when he fell at the last at Aintree. He disappointed at Punchestown on his last start of the season but started this season in good form, winning twice before running poorly when stepped up to three miles last time out. I would have had him down as a doubtful stayer over that trip but it wasn’t the extra distance that beat him and he was later found to be suffering from a respiratory problem.
Tactics will be interesting here. My twitter feed seems full of people expecting Faugheen to lead, but I don’t think he needs too and has only made the running before when there was no other pace in the race as he is a strong stayer at two miles. Likewise, Nichols Canyon stays further and in battling back in a real stamina test last time he shows he really needs a test at this trip. The same trainer may have all three runners but they still have to run on their own merits and I can’t imagine how letting Faugheen have an easy lead would be optimal for Nichols Canyon.
Whichever of that pair leads it’s likely they will get into a battle from a good way out, which should be a perfect set up for Arctic Fire, providing he’s fully recovered from his problems last time. I don’t really expect him to beat Faugheen, but he’s currently twice the price of Nichols Canyon in the win market, he has better form that him and in letting that one have first crack at Faugheen he should be able to pick up the pieces and get second, meaning a bet on Arctic Fire without the favourite could be very good value, if we can get 6/4 or bigger.
Arkle Novice Chase, 1.55pm
The other grade one on the card is the Frank Ward Solicitors Arkle Novice Chase, and with Douvan heading the market at 1/10 it’s better to view this as another chance to watch a potential superstar in action than a race to bet on. I would have made Douvan favourite against Faugheen over hurdles but with connections keen to keep them apart Douvan has gone straight over fences after his novice hurdle season.
So far, in winning both his chase starts, he looks made for the bigger obstacles. Some very decent novices tried to go with him at Leopardstown last time and in doing so they finished punch drunk, while Douvan, despite a mistake at the last, sauntered clear on the run in. His two rivals tomorrow look inferior to anything he met at Christmas and bar a fall it’s hard to imagine anything other than another very easy victory.
Novice Hurdle, 1.20pm
This novice hurdle is over two and a half miles. A Toi Phil has been put in at odds on favourite for this. He cocked his jaw and ran out on his first Irish start at Clonmel, and while it’s true the horse in front of him did the same, it looked to me like A Toi Phil had already started to go left before that one went. He made amends with a hard-fought success a few days later at Leopardstown, but if you watch closely on the run to the last, he looked like he was trying to dart to his right until the challengers on his outside held him in.
Acapella Bourgeois did too much too soon on his hurdling debut at Fairyhouse and made amends when winning at Leopardstown last time. He was again quite free though, leaving the impression that if he settles down a bit he can do better again.
Chain Gang is another who won a maiden at Leopardstown over Christmas but unlike Acapella Bourgeois, who went like the best horse all the way, he looked third best on the run to the last and only picked up the pieces when the two in front of him stopped from the last after possibly taking each other on a bit too far out.
Woodland Opera won his maiden at Navan and in doing so he beat Coney Island, who subsequently boosted that form by easily winning at Leopardstown. That race was over two miles but Woodland Island was strongest at the line that day, suggesting his optimum trip was going to be over further. He disappointed in a grade one novice over two miles at Leopardstown last time, but he must have had a problem and if he can bounce back to form the extra trip tomorrow looks sure to suit.
A Toi Phil clearly has a good chance but he hasn’t achieved any more than three others in this. I still think his attitude is suspect and the current odds, with him at 10/11, seems to be hugely overrating the Willie Mullins effect. I can’t choose between Woodland Opera and Acapella Bourgeois, who are currently 11/2 and 6/1 respectively. If you back both to return the same amount you are getting over 9/4 coupled and I think that’s a great price.
Handicap Chase, 2.30pm
The other race shown live on RTÉ is the 2.30pm - a handicap chase over two miles and a furlong. Rogue Trader looks to have been given a very lenient mark of 123 for his first handicap chase. It was off that same rating he came second in a strong 25-runner handicap hurdle at Punchestown. Granted that run was over three miles, but in his three chase runs so far he’s shown enough to suggest he can run to a decent level at this shorter trip and that he’s at least as good over the larger obstacles.
He was second to Douvan in a beginner’s chase and while the winner won easily in beating the rest like he did, it was form that makes a mark of 123 look very exploitable. Rouge Trader was disappointing last time, but made a few mistakes at the wrong time and this race is a drop in class for him. Paddy Power are currently 6/1 on him and that looks much too big to me and should be snapped up.
Watch coverage of the Irish Champion Hurdle live on RTE2 and RTE Player
Declan Meagher is the author of the website Learn Bet Win. For more, follow Declan on Twitter.
