By Declan Meagher
14.25 - Coral Hurdle
The Coral Handicap Hurdle is the big race at Leopardstown and with 25 runners declared it looks sure to be a competitive affair.
After Rain currently heads the market, and is the choice of Barry Geraghty in preference to the other JP McManus contenders.
He made his handicap debut last time when third at Fairyhouse in a race that has worked out very well, with the second, fourth and sixth winning next time out.
After Rain pulled quite hard early that day, so the anticipated strong pace should suit. He’s unexposed and races off just 2lb higher here, so his chance is obvious.
Desoto County was starting to become a bit disappointing for Donald McCain but a move to the Gordon Elliot yard seemed to revive him, and he won well at Thurles last time. He’s up 10lb here though, in a better race, and his current odds of 10/1 look on the short side.
Buiseness Sivola has only won once from seven hurdle starts, but on his second in a Grade One at Punchestown last May, and his recent fifth at the top level in Auteuil - when he travelled well for a long way and only faded late after trying to take on the impressive winner - you could make a case for his mark of 137 being slightly lenient.
Whatsforuwontgobyu arrived there travelling well on the run to the last in a Leopardstown handicap over Christmas, but while he won, he didn’t exactly shoot clear on the run-in, and off 10lb higher in a better race, he will need to improve.
Kalkir disappointed in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham, but had earlier come second in a Grade One at Leopardstown, and his mark of 137 looks fair.
We haven’t seen him since, but the fact he goes for this on his first run back, suggests he’s pleasing connections at home, and he certainly has a chance.
Da Name Escapes Me has had just three hurdle starts, winning the last twice, and while it wasn’t a strong race that he won at Fairyhouse last time, he won with plenty in hand and looks to be progressing fast.
His mark is only fair based on that, but he has plenty of scope to improve, and the drop back in trip from that two and a half miles should be fine.
Vive La France won easily at Galway last time when trained by Tony Martin. He hasn’t run since that win back in July, and now makes his debut for the Alan Fleming yard. His mark is 12lb higher here, and his overall profile doesn’t scream out as a likely winner of this.
Bamako Moriviere had his first start for Willie Mullins after moving from France when third of six at Limerick in December.
The bare form makes his rating of 133 look fair, but he shaped better than that, going like easily the second best horse for a long way, until running out of steam from the second last. That was his first run in twelve months, and it seems reasonable to expect improvement.
Henry Higgins came fifth in the same race that After Rain was third in, and given how well that race has worked out, that looks decent form. He travelled well throughout, and made good ground in what looked the hottest part of the race, taking up the running and looking a possible winner. It’s likely that premature effort was the reason he finished weakly.
You could make a case for plenty of these, but the object is to back horses that win more often than their odds imply, and at the current prices, both Henry Higgins and Bamako Moriviere look good bets each way at 20/1.
You can get slightly bigger, but 20/1 is available with bookies going five places, and that looks the best value.
14.55 - Coral Chase
The Coral Leopardstown Handicap Chase is the other big race on the card, and given the prize money on offer, a field of just twelve runners is a little disappointing.
It’s still a decent race though, and with the current joint favourites priced at 6/1, it looks pretty competitive too.
Fine Rightly has had just five chase starts, winning three of those, and last time he created a very good impression when he beat his eight opponents at Navan.
The winning margin was just under two lengths, and with the first five home covered by just ten lengths, the handicapper was unable to raise him by much.
The pace was steady however, which resulted in the margins being compressed, and considering he was hacking all over his rivals for most of the straight and never looked in any danger of defeat, the 7lb rise he got looks very lenient.
Killer Crow won a novice chase at Navan before coming second in a handicap chase at Limerick last time, and given he’s only had six chase starts, he is open to improvement. He ran off a mark of 127 for that Limerick second, and has a perch of 130 for this.
Blood Cotil won a novice chase at Naas last season, before jumping poorly, and ended up pulling up at Cheltenham in March, but he put in a much more assured round, when winning at Punchestown in May. His mark is 12lb higher now, but he’s still relatively unexposed, and must have a chance.
Seabass is now 13, and while he’s proven quite versatile with regards trip throughout his career, his best form is over much further than this two-miles-and-five-furlong trip.
He could well run a decent race, but it’s hard to think he’s well enough handicapped to win such a valuable event at his age.
Empire Of Dirt looks well handicapped on his second at Punchestown in early December, but he then ran no race at Leopardstown over the festive period. His profile is a bit hit and miss, with a few falls thrown in too, but if he does bounce back he has a good chance.
Heathfield ran okay in the Paddy Power last time, and while he has form over this trip too, his best run was over almost four miles last May.
I think he’s a horse that can win off his mark of 133, but surely his optimum trip will prove to be over further. Fever Pitch would have a chance on his latest second at Navan, while Hash Brown will appreciate this step back up in trip after two runs over two miles and a furlong.
The betting suggests this is a hard one to call, but I think Fine Rightly stands out. He’s progressive, has plenty of scope to improve more and should take plenty of beating. He looks a good bet at the current 6/1.
13.20 - Maiden Hurdle
The first race of the day to be televised by RTÉ is the maiden hurdle and Pylonthepressure looks set to go off a short-priced favourite, and will surely prove very hard to beat after coming second to Tombstone on his hurdling debut last time.
The winner has since franked that form by coming second in a grade one here, and they were 13 lengths clear of the third that day. That form would be good enough to win most maiden hurdles, and with improvement expected he should make it second time lucky.
13.50 - Handicap Hurdle
This race is a three-mile handicap hurdle, and while Children’s List looks to hold a solid chance, I think Golan Lodge is the most likely winner.
He was only just touched off at Fairyhouse last time, having travelled like the best horse for most of the trip, but a premature move by Railway Tommy’s jockey on the home bend meant he also committed too soon, and Flemenstorm picked up the pieces.
Granted better rides both horses would likely have filled the first two positions, and while Golan Lodge has more scope to improve, Railway Tommy could be the danger. Granted a reasonable price, he could be worth backing too.
Declan Meagher is the author of the website Learn Bet Win. For more, follow Declan on Twitter.
Watch coverage of the Leapordstown Coral Hurdle live on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player
