By Declan Meagher
2.30 - Ryanair Hurdle
The big race on the last day of Leopardstown Christmas meeting, is the Grade One Ryanair Hurdle.
Five horses have been declared for this, but with Artic Fire a disappointing last in the Christmas Hurdle on Monday, it looks like just four will face the starter.
Nichols Canyon was a top novice hurdler last season, winning four races at Grade One level. He came up short when third to Windsor Park at Cheltenham, but ended the season with wins at the Aintree and Punchestown festivals.
Both those wins were over two and a half miles, and he clearly stays that trip well, so it was a bit of a surprise when he turned over his stable companion, Faugheen, on his reappearance just over a month ago.
There are two ways of looking at that half-length victory over last season’s Champion Hurdle winner.
One is that Nichols Canyon has made a good deal of improvement over the summer, and is now a top-notch two-mile hurdler.
The other, and far more likely scenario in my opinion, is that Faugheen wasn’t anywhere near his best, and Nichols Canyon just had to run up to his novice form to win.
The fact that Wicklow Brave was just a further one-and-a-quarter-length back in third, supports that theory.
Identity Thief was a decent novice last season, but he was a good way off Nichols Canyon’s level, but he’s clearly improved since then, as he’s won both his starts this winter, last time winning the Grade One Fighting Fifth at Newcastle.
He initially disputed the lead that day, before settling a few lengths off the pace. A few slight mistakes threatened to cost him in the straight, especially at the last, when he landed very flat-footed after looking sure to win as they approached it.
He came away from the flight one length down, but did very well to battle back, and get up to win by a neck.
Identity Thief left the impression that with a better round of jumping he would have won handy enough, and that’s pretty strong form, as the first two went ten lengths clear of Wicklow Brave in third.
He’s clearly progressive and there could be more to come, but he’s strong stayer at two miles, so Bryan Cooper will need to ensure he doesn’t let Nichols Canyon have a soft lead.
Windsor Park goes on soft ground, but he did show improved form on better ground when winning the Neptune at Cheltenham back in March.
That was over two miles and five furlongs, but I’d say he’ll be just as effective back at this trip, as the pace wasn’t fast that day, and it turned into more of a test of speed, than stamina.
After winning on the flat in April he wasn’t seen again until finishing down the field at Leopardstown in September, again on the flat, shaping like the run was needed.
It is a worry that he hasn’t been seen since, as that run looked like a prep for something like the November handicap, and the ground here will hardly be ideal.
That said considering he beat Nichols Canyon at Cheltenham, and his best form is arguably as good as that one, the betting here has quite a big discrepancy between the pair, with Nichols Canyon looking much too short at 1/2, with Windsor Park an 8/1 shot.
At the prices the one I like the most is Identity Thief though, and the current 5/2 looks worth a small bet.
13.55 - Neville Hotels Novice Steeplechase
Just four horses were declared for the Grade One Neville Hotels Novice Chase, with three of those owned by Gigginstown.
No More Heroes is their main contender, and he looks sure to go off odds-on favourite. No More Heroes beat Monksland in the Grade One Drinmore last time out, and that looks the key bit of form for this race.
No More Heroes jumped very well, and stayed on strongly when challenged by Monksland between the last two fences.
The latter made a slight mistake around halfway, and again wasn’t foot perfect at the penultimate fence, but No More Heroes never looked in any danger, and looked to win with more in hand than the two-and-a-half-length margin.
That race was over two and a half miles and while Monksland is equally as good over the three miles of this race, I wouldn’t think he’s much better at this trip.
On the other hand, No More Heroes won despite the trip last time, and looks sure to be even better over three miles. Rule The World is already exposed as below this standard over fences, while Wrath of Titans would also need to find an awful lot to trouble the two favourites.
It’s not original, but it’s very hard to see anything bar a comfortable victory for No More Heroes. His jumping has been very solid in his chase career thus far, the step up in trip is a plus, he already has better form than the main danger, and he has far more scope to do better too.
13.20 - Willis European Breeders Fund Mares Hurdle
As I write this only one bookie has priced up the Grade Three Mares Hurdle, run over two miles and four furlongs, but I have to say I’m quite surprised to see Morning Run at 8/11, and I think she would be worth backing at that price.
Yes, you won’t get rich doing it, but making money betting is all about placing bets with a positive expectation, and to make money backing 8/11 shots, you need them to win more often than 58pc of the time.
I find it hard to think that Morning Run, who already has the best form, with plenty of scope to do better, chances of winning, are not greater than that.
15.05 - Ryanair European Breeders Fund Novice Handicap Hurdle
Squouateur holds an obvious chance in this, a handicap hurdle over two and a half miles, but although the slow pace helped compress his winning margin, it was a weak maiden he won at Fairyhouse, and he would have been only fourth of five runners last time if two horses hadn’t come down at the second last.
This step up in trip will suit though, and he has plenty of potential to improve. Slight preference though is for Ma Garrett, who based on a win at Wexford, and a third place finish at Fairyhouse, looks reasonably treated off a mark of 116 for her handicap debut.
Declan Meagher is the author of the website Learn Bet Win. For more, follow Declan on Twitter.
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