By Declan Meagher
15.05 - Lexus Steeplechase
The big one on the third day of the Leopardstown Christmas Festival is the Lexus Steeplechase, run over three miles, and while it looked like being a cracker of a race at one stage, a few of the main contenders have dropped out leaving Don Poli as the odds-on favourite.
Don Poli is a hard horse to be dogmatic about. His record over fences is four wins from five starts, and with two of those being in Grade One company, it’s clear he needs taking seriously.
The bare form of his wins wouldn’t be good enough to win a Gold Cup though, and the reason he’s vying for favouritism for that event is the fact that he races very lazily, and most people assume he has more in the locker.
While connections and pundits generally abuse the notion that a horse ‘did nothing in front’, in his case it does look valid.
He came off the bridle early in the RSA at Cheltenham, but once Bryan Cooper gave him a slap he picked up, only to end up in front too soon. After briefly looking in trouble after turning in, he knuckled down again, going away for a six-length win.
Don Poli then ran poorly at Punchestown, but bounced back on his seasonal reappearance at Aintree, beating the Grand National winner by four lengths, with his jockey at pains not to hit the front until after the last.
Again it looked like he’d more to give, but he would need to as he was getting 5lb from the runner-up. An alternative theory, while not as likely, is that he’s just a bit slow, and it’s his stamina that means he finishes his races strongly after looking beaten.
Sir Des Champs won the Irish Hennessy Gold Cup back in 2013, before coming second in the Cheltenham edition, and you could make a case for saying he was unlucky at Cheltenham, as he got into a duel with Long Run from some way out, leaving Bobs Worth to come through and pick up the pieces.
He then went onto win the Punchestown Gold Cup that same year, but after getting caught out by a steady pace in that year's Lexus, he was injured and didn’t run again until a recent win at Thurles.
He needed Rubi Light to make it a real test that day, and while the extra trip is in his favour here, he does need to prove he retains all his ability, and does seem to need a real test at three miles too.
Carlingford Lough was only fifth in last year’s Lexus, but shaped better than the result, before the lack of a recent run told. He went on to win the Irish Hennessy, before coming ninth in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham.
He had run below form the previous year at Cheltenham too, and maybe it’s just not his track. This year he’s had a prep run for this over hurdles, and while he finished well beaten, it’s likely he needed it. He should be capable of bouncing back to his best.
Foxrock was beaten just three-quarters of a length by Carlingford Lough in last season’s Irish Hennessy, before running poorly at Cheltenham.
His from this year leaves a little to be desired, but the first of those runs was over hurdles, and last time the two-and-a-half mile trip was too short, meaning the possibility of him bouncing back here isn’t that far-fetched.
First Lieutenant isn’t the horse of old, and while he showed some spark when third in the Hennessy at Newbury last time, it was off a rating of just 147, and that would leave him with an awful lot to find here.
Don Poli will obviously take the beating, but both himself and Sir Des Champs are very strong stayers at three miles, and they will need a strong pace to be seen at their best.
First Lieutenant may help in that regard, but that’s far from guaranteed. If it becomes a crawl and then sprint, Carlingford Lough may be able to take advantage, and looks worth a bet at the current 10/1.
13.55 - Squared Financial Christmas Hurdle
The other Grade One on Monday’s card is the Squared Financial Christmas Hurdle, run over three miles.
Arctic Fire [pictured] heads the market, stepping up to this trip for the first time. His win record for a horse of his ability wasn’t great up until this season, but he has won his last two races, including beating Alpha Des Obeaux last time at Fairyhouse over two and a half miles.
He sauntered into the lead approaching the last that day, and while he’s probably a horse who doesn’t do much in front, he didn’t exactly go right away as he looked like doing, winning by four lengths in the end. That trip looked ideal for him, but this is a step into the unknown.
Alpha Des Obeaux has been beaten in his last five races, coming second on four occasions. There’s no suggestion he’s not genuine though, just unlucky to bump into a few good ones.
He looked to be coming back at Thistlecrack at Aintree over three miles, when he fell at the last, and that form looks even better now.
His last two runs have been over two and a half miles, and he kept going gamely when passed by Arctic Fire last time out. This step back up to three miles looks sure to suit, and he looks certain to give Arctic Fire more to do this time.
Martello Tower progressed well as a novice last season, looking suited to the step back up to three miles when battling well to win the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham.
The form of that win might be fractionally behind what Alpha Des Obeaux achieved in defeat, but the ground was on the good side, and the softer conditions here could make this much more of a stamina test.
That will suit Martello Tower, who looks like he’d stay all day. The question is whether he’ll be fit enough to take advantage, as he hasn’t run since that win.
Snow Falcon was back in fifth in the Hatton’s Grace and he doesn’t have the same scope as Gwencily Berbas to improve. Prince of Scars has come on for the step up to three miles recently, winning two handicaps. He can improve again, but he will need to if he’s to win this.
Arctic Fire is probably the most likely winner, but he’s currently 8/11, while Alpha Des Obeaux is 3/1, and I would have them much closer than that. The step up in trip is sure to suit him, while I’d be surprised if Arctic Fire is as effective over this trip so Alpha Des Obeaux looks a good bet.
14.30 - Irish Daily Star Handicap Hurdle
This looks pretty competitive. Elusive Ivy has improved of late though, winning a maiden hurdle at Galway, before coming second of 14 in a handicap at Fairyhouse.
She got beaten by an unexposed type that day, and although that one has ran poorly since, he clearly wasn’t right. Off just 3lb higher here, Elusive Ivy should take some beating.
Declan Meagher is the author of the website Learn Bet Win. For more, follow Declan on Twitter.
Watch coverage of the Leopardstown Christmas Festival live on RTÉ 2 and RTÉ Player.
