By Declan Meagher
13.15 Paddy Power So Quick, So Easy IPhone App Steeplechase
The Grade One action on the second day of the Leopardstown Christmas Festival kicks off with the Paddy Power So Quick, So Easy IPhone App Steeplechase, run over two miles and one furlong.
Un De Sceaux, unbeaten in his completed starts over fences, looks set to go off a long odds-on favourite.
Given his career record reads 13 wins from 14 runs, with the only defeat coming when he fell on his chase debut, he is a hard horse to knock, but he has been campaigned pretty conservatively, and this is his first time in a Grade One outside of novice company.
After that initial blip over fences, Un De Sceaux was impressive in winning at Fairyhouse and Leopardstown, before heading to Cheltenham a hot favourite for the Arkle.
In winning by six lengths he didn’t let his supporters down, but I thought he was pretty much all out to do so, and the second and third home have done little for the form since.
In truth it looked a poor Arkle, and while it’s possible he’s better than that, he’d need to be to justify some of the hype surrounding him. To my eye he’s a very good horse, but on what I’ve seen so far, he wouldn’t get near a peak form Sprinter Sacre.
Finding one to beat him is tricky. Clarcam is second favourite, but while he won two Grade One races as a novice, in one of those he had an overly generous weight for age allowance, and the other at Aintree wasn’t much of a race. He’d need to improve, and with three defeats since, he’s starting to look exposed.
Simply Ned was third in this race last year and put up a good performance at Kelso on his seasonal debut, but was disappointing at Cheltenham last time, and while his form is as good as anything else, he would need to improve to beat Un De Sceaux.
Hidden Cyclone was second in this last season, and is consistent, but like Simply Ned he’d need to find something to trouble the favourite. Given his overall form and consistency, he might be of interest in the betting without market.
Flemenstar looked top notch over two, to two and a half miles three years ago, but trying to stretch him out to a trip he didn’t seem to stay meant he never really got to show us what he could do, and after an injury that kept him out for over two years, he doesn’t look the same horse.
Sizing Granite improved throughout last season, culminating with a one-length win over God’s Owen, the horse who chased Un De Sceaux home in the Arkle, at Aintree.
That form would leave him with a little to find, but I thought he was idling a bit in front. He made a decent comeback when going down by a head at Naas, and my main worry with him is the heavy ground. He’s won on soft, but the ground was good at Aintree and that was his best performance.
Un De Sceaux is much the likeliest winner, but his price of 1/3 looks too short to me. Ground doubts aside, 14/1 looks a bit big on Sizing Granite, while Hidden Cyclone is consistent and given he’s currently the outsider, he may be worth a bet without the favourite.
13.45 - The Future Champion Novice Hurdle
Another Grade One, this time for novice hurdlers, is next up. Long Dog beat his stable companion Bachasson by a neck in the Royal Bond at Fairyhouse, and while I have my doubts about either being top contenders for the big novice events at Cheltenham, they set the standard for this.
Long Dog was the choice of Ruby Walsh on that occasion, and after looking set to win by a couple of lengths after the last, Bachasson battled back close home.
Ruby again rides Long Dog, but both on that run, and their previous form, there’s unlikely to be much between them again.
Falcon Crest is unbeaten in two starts over hurdles, winning a Grade Two at Navan last time. He travelled best and went right away for a 6 1/2l win on the run in.
He was visually impressive, but the fact sectionals show they finished quite tired in behind, adds a note of caution to the visual effect.
Tombstone was impressive when winning a maiden at Fairyhouse, doing well to put 5l between himself and the runner up after the last, off what was only a steady pace. He’d obviously need to find a good bit to win this, but the potential is there.
Tully East easily won a handicap hurdle off a mark of 120 last time, and while that form is probably better than what Tombstone achieved, he doesn’t have quite as much scope to find the necessary improvement.
Woodland Opera won a decent maiden hurdle at Navan, and the form was franked when the 2nd Coney Island easily won at Leopardstown on the 26th of December.
He was off the bridle before the eventual 3rd that day though, and in grinding out a victory he left the impression he might prove better over further, although it is sure to be a stamina test at the trip, with the ground sure to be heavy.
Willie Mullins completes his very strong hand in this with Bleu Et Rouge who won nicely at Cork, but would need to find a good bit to win this, and his other contender Petit Mouchoir won very easily at Thurles.
The form of that is working out very well, with the 3rd and 4th winning next time.
Long Dog and Bachasson set the standard here, but neither strikes me as a star in waiting, and with plenty of unexposed, promising sorts in opposition, they are set to face a much stiffer test than last time.
Of those horses the two I like are Petit Mouchoir (pictured above) and Tombstone. Depending on prices, both may be worth backing, but although Bryan Cooper choose to ride Tombstone, I’d prefer Petit Mouchoir and he looks worth a bet.
14.20 Paddy Power 'One Account Multiple Ways To Bet' Handicap Hurdle
This two-mile handicap hurdle is full of mostly exposed sorts with one horse standing out a mile. Copy That was having just his fourth start, when he won a Galway handicap last time by a half a length.
The narrow winning margin means he races off just 6lb higher here, but that looks to hugely underestimate him, as he arrived there cantering coming to the last, and looked to be doing nothing in front.
He has to prove himself on very soft ground, and his jockey will need to time his run so as not to hit the front too soon, but I’d be very surprised if he’s not a good bit ahead of his mark, and he should take plenty of beating.
14.55 The Paddy Power Chase
This looks very competitive as usual, and while it would be possible to make some sort of a case for plenty of these, the two that stand out to me are the top weight, Gilgamboa (pictured above), and Sumos Novios.
Barry Geraghty is ridding Minella Foru, and while he clearly has a chance, the fact he picks him means Gilgamboa has the services of a useful 5lb claimer.
That is sure to help, and based on his Grade One win at Fairyhouse back in April, and his reappearance third in the John Durkin, he looks to have been let in lightly off a mark of 150.
The step up in trip looks certain to suit too, as in both of those races at two and a half miles, he got better the further he went. The current 10/1 looks worth a bet.
An even better wager might be Sumos Novios at the 12/1 currently available. He’s had just five career starts, this real chasing type has skipped hurdles altogether. Last time at Punchestown, he was very impressive in running out a four-and-a-half-length winner, leaving the impression he had a good bit more in hand than the winning margin.
He’s only 8lb higher for this, the extra trip is a plus, and he has lots of scope to do much better again. I’m surprised he’s not favourite, and I think he should be.
Declan Meagher is the author of the website Learn Bet Win. For more, follow Declan on Twitter.
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