By Declan Meagher
13:20 - Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle
The graded action at this year’s Leopardstown Christmas Festival kicks off with the Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle, with a field of eight set to go to post.
Footpad from the Willie Mullins stable is favourite, after easily winning at Gowran Park on his debut for the yard. Prior to joining the Mullins yard, he had two runs at Auteuil.
Footpad made the running at Gowran at a steady pace, and while he won with plenty in hand, he probably didn’t beat much, and this is a big step up in class.
Rashaan has already won a graded hurdle, a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse last time, when he went right away after the last for a 13 length victory. The leaders went quick that day though, and finished quite slowly, and I think Rashaan was flattered by the margin of success. It is still a good level of form though, and he must have every chance.
Jer’s Girl is two from two over hurdles so far, last time winning by 10l at Aintree, and that form definitely puts her in the mix here, but the one I like at the current prices is Gordon Elliot’s French import, Campeador. He improved on his first hurdle start when easily winning at a 15 runner event at Clairfontaine last time, and while putting an exact figure on the form is tricky, the runner-up has since boosted it by going close in a decent handicap.
A reasonable assumption would be to pitch it not far off the level that Rashaan has achieved, and better than Footpad.
Campeador also has plenty of scope to do better, the fact his new connections are running in this suggest he’s pleased them since joining, and while the initial 9/1 quotes have gone, the 5/1 available as I write this still looks a little too big.
You may get bigger though, when the markets become more competitive on St Stephen's morning.
13:50 - Cardinal Capital Handicap Hurdle
This race looks very tricky, but one horse that looks overpriced to me is Fightforyourdreams. This is his first run in a handicap and a mark of 95 looks very fair based on his fourth place in a decent maiden hurdle at Navan last time.
While it’s true the slow pace means he might be a touch flattered to get within 16 lengths of the winner, he was outpaced when they quickened before staying on quite well, and a faster pace would probably have seen him claim third. Current quotes of 33/1 surely underestimate his chance.
14:20 Handicap Chase
Several of these horses met last time in a race won by Nearly Nama’d at Fairyhouse.
Treat Yourself did the best of them that day in third, and as such is favourite for this.
But they went quick and kicked for home soon enough that day, and as such his margin of superiority over the likes of Dysios, Dandridge, and The King Of Brega flatters him somewhat.
The King Of Brega in particular shaped much better than the result, travelling quite well.
He was in contention jumping the second last, but having been just behind Treat Yourself on the run to the last, he faded quite badly to get beaten almost 30 lengths.
He had improved on his first start for the De Bromhead yard on his previous outing, doing well to win at Down Royal after making a hash of the second last fence, and with just five chase outings so far, he still has some scope to improve.
Dandridge paid late for sitting close to that strong pace in that Fairyhouse race, but he did enough to suggest he was still in top form, having won easily at Wexford on his previous start.
Like King Of Brega he’s lightly enough raced to suggest there might be more to come from him, and at the current prices of 12/1 for King, and 9/1 for Dandridge, both look worth a bet.
14:55 - Racing Post Novice Chase
The Racing Post Novice Chase is the big race of the day, and while there may be only 4 runners, what it lacks in quantity, it certainly makes up for in quality.
Douvan is odds on, and deserves to be, as he really does look a potential superstar. He was a very impressive winner of the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham last season, before beating today’s rival, Sizing John by almost 8 lenghts at Punchestown.
Douvan had much more in hand than the bare margin that day, toying with his rival until Ruby sent him on approaching the last, and if he had stayed over hurdles, I would have fancied him to win the Champion Hurdle.
Douvan made his chasing debut at Navan in November, and made most of the running for a very easy success. His jumping was almost perfect, apart from diving slightly at the last, and while these rivals should test him more, he’s a really exciting prospect and will take a huge amount of beating.
Ttebbob was a decent hurdler, although not in the same league as Douvan in that discipline, and he’s made an impressive start to his chase career, with wins at Thurles and Navan.
He has jumped well both times, and certainly looks like making a better chaser than a hurdler, but he would need to be, as Douvan wouldn’t have come off the bridle to beat him in a 2 mile 1 furlong hurdle race. His best hurdle form was over further, and unless this is a real test, it’s hard to see him having the pace to trouble the favourite.
Sizing John was no match for Douvan over hurdles, although his form in that sphere was still better than Ttebbob’s, and like many from his yard, he looks a better chaser already, having won both chase outings so far. He beat Lord Scoundrel by 8 lenghts last time, and while Ttebbob has subsequently beaten that horse by much further, the suspicion is that Lord Scoundrel didn’t run his race that day.
Velvet Maker is another who would have plenty to find on hurdle form to win this, but he also made an impressive start to his chasing career, when winning at Naas. He jumped well that day on his first start for Alan Fleming, and while the bare form wouldn’t be good enough for this, he has plenty of scope to improve.
Douvan has done nothing wrong over hurdles, or fences so far. He has already reached a very high level of form over hurdles, while also looking capable of much more when he meets horses capable of pushing him to do so.
For many this will be a race to savour, rather than bet on, but I wouldn’t put anyone off taking the 4/7 on Douvan. Backing horses at that price isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, but if they win more often than 63.7% of the time, you will make money doing so, and I would rate Douvan’s chances higher than that.
I’m quite surprised that Sizing John is not second favourite for this. I’d certainly make him favourite in the betting without market, and if you could get 11/8 or bigger, without Douvan, I’d be interested in that too.
Declan Meagher is the author of the website Learn Bet Win. For more, follow Declan on Twitter.
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