Last year’s renewal of the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup provided a dramatic finish and a surprise result which left many questioning the form of the race.
The early pace was dawdling and it wasn’t until the final third of the contest that the field really started to up the tempo.
Market leaders Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti were well placed on the run-in but had no answer to the charge of Lord Windermere, On His Own and The Giant Bolster.
The Giant Bolster and Lord Windermere in particular must have been inconvenienced by having to make up ground as the fast finish ensued.
Silviniaco Conti’s victories this season in the Betfair Chase and the King George ensure that he will be sent off favourite, but he was wandering like a drunk in the closing stages 12 months ago, despite that sedate early pace.
He was travelling well in the 2013 edition of the race when he departed three fences from home, but the race had yet to truly unfold, and it may be best to place credence in the theory that Noel Fehily’s mount is best on flat tracks until he proves otherwise.
Bobs Worth also lurched across the track in last year’s race, although a lack of stamina wasn’t responsible for his aberration. The major worry for his supporters is that he’s only been seen once on the racetrack this season and his performance in the Lexus Chase was a lifeless one.
Rekindling the form that saw him triumph at Prestbury Park in 2013 is likely to prove elusive.
Lord Windermere is a big price for a horse who is unbeaten at the Cheltenham Festival. Jim Culloty’s stable star claimed the RSA Chase in 2013 before triumphing last year, but has failed to recreate that form elsewhere.
Davy Russell’s mount does seem to relish the layout of this course and the good ground that generally prevails here.
Having had every chance jumping the final fence on his last outing in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown, it was disappointing that his challenge petered out.
An even bigger worry for his supporters could be the form of the Culloty yard as the trainer has yet to register a winner from the 53 horses he’s sent out from his Mallow base this season.
The stable was in the doldrums heading into last season’s Festival, but Spring Heeled’s success in the Kim Muir helped to assuage those concerns ahead of Lord Windermere's Gold Cup bid.
Oliver Sherwood is hoping the skies open for Many Clouds ahead of race time. An impressive winner of the Hennessy at Newbury, he continued his steep upward trajectory when he scored at Cheltenham in January.
Djakadam was sent off favourite for the Hennessy when Many Clouds scored and travelled well for much of the trip before weakening dramatically in the closing stages.
Ruby Walsh’s mount improved massively for that run and defied top weight to claim the Thyestes at Gowran Park on his last start. One of a number of unexposed challengers in the field, he’s attempting to emulate the feat Long Run achieved in 2011 when he triumphed as a six-year-old.
Coneygree may be two years older than Djakadam, but he’s even less exposed than his rival. Still a novice, he only made his first start over fences in November. His two victories over three miles have seen him clock fast times while routing rout his opposition with bold front-running efforts.
Noel Meade’s Road To Riches has made giant strides this seasons, winning the JNWine.com Champion Chase and the Lexus Chase on his last two outings. Meade has struggled for winners at this meeting over the years, but Road To Riches has been campaigned differently to many of his previous Cheltenham hopes and arrives here a fresh horse.
Carlingford Lough provides Tony McCoy with his last ever ride in the Gold Cup. John Kiely’s charge benefitted from his seasonal debut behind Road To Riches and claimed the Hennessy at Leopardstown on his last start. Jumping deficiencies have found him out in the past, but he has looked more accomplished in that department this season.
The Holywell proved a revelation last spring, winning at both Cheltenham and Aintree. He appears to be coming to the boil after a facile win at Kelso last time out. His main shortcoming is his lack of size. This big field could put pressure on his jumping, but he should go well granted a clear round.
Verdict: Overnight rain could have a massive impact on the outcome of this year’s Gold Cup, but the amount of precipitation and what effect it will have on a track with such an efficient drainage system will remain an imponderable until racing is under way.
Youngsters Many Clouds, Djakadam and Coneygree would all appreciate a softer surface than has prevailed at Prestbury Park this week. Coneygree was devastating in his latest win at Newbury and could win this if he was granted an uncontested lead.
However, there are a number of other leading contenders who seem likely to pester him for that early initiative and this race could well be set up for horses that will be ridden more conservatively such as Many Clouds and Djakadam.
Lord Windermere seems certain to be given a waiting ride, just as he was last year, and could be overpriced at 20-1. However, the form of the Culloty yard is troubling and he may be one who runs a huge race or a deplorable one.
For that reason, he could offer better value in the win rather than the place market. Sam Winner is the Paul Nicholls second string in the race and looks set to be suited by the way this race will be run. He’s more of a Grand National type, but his abundant stamina could help him run in to a place and he makes each-way appeal at 25-1.
Lord Windermere - 1 point win, 0.5 point place at best available odds
Sam Winner - 0.5 point each-way at best available odds
Silviniaco Conti - Lay for 1 point in Betfair place market at 2.3 or lower.
Tuesday’s bets
Faugheen - 2 points win (WON)
Arctic Fire - 1 point each-way (SECOND)
Wednesday’s bet
Simply Ned - 0.5 point each-way (Unplaced - 5th)
Thursday’s bet
Saphir Du Rheu - 1 point each-way (SECOND)
