By Barry McEneaney
Sprinter Sacre’s dazzling displays over fences seemed a distant memory when he made his long-awaited return to action in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot in January.
‘The Black Aeroplane’ had been grounded for 386 days as he recuperated from the irregular heartbeat that came to the fore when he was pulled up in his run at Kempton at the end of 2013.
Prior to that, Sprinter Sacre had been unbeaten in 10 starts over fences and his seven-length drubbing of Cue Card in the Arkle and 19-length annihilation of Sizing Europe in the Champion Chase were Festival highlights for many fans in 2012 and 2013.
The three-length defeat Dodging Bullets inflicted on him on his comeback is open to interpretation.
Barry Geraghty’s mount travelled well for much of the trip before faltering late on. Perhaps his tame finishing effort was inevitable in a race run on soft ground after such a long spell on the sidelines.
Those closest to the horse were adamant that their charge would come on massively for his reappearance and he doesn’t need to find a great deal of improvement to score a second Champion Chase success.
The worry has to be that his reappearance was an accurate reflection of Sprinter Sacre’s current level of ability, that his heart problem has blunted that undoubted brilliance.
Many of the top two-mile chasers tend to run well fresh and there’s a possibility that he could regress from the run and perform poorly after a far from perfect preparation for this race.
Sire De Grugy has also experienced a disrupted build-up ahead of his to his title defence, following his win in last season’s sub-standard renewal. A hip problem meant he didn’t make his seasonal debut until February in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury, where he unseated Jamie Moore following an uncertain round of jumping.
The son of My Risk then bounced back to winning ways with an impressive weight-carrying performance in a handicap at Chepstow on his second start just 18 days before his Cheltenham assignment. His connections obviously felt that a second run was vital to bring his fitness level forward, but two quick runs on back of a long absence isn’t the conventional route previous winners of the Champion Chase have charted.
Dodging Bullets and Champagne Fever should serve as logical alternatives to the top two in the market, but they also have some negatives to overcome.
Dodging Bullets’ progression up the two-mile chasing division this season has been startling. There was little sign of what was to come when he finished third behind Uxizandre and Simply Ned on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham.
His Grade One wins in the Tingle Creek and the Clarence House Chase ensured his odds for Champion Chase plummeted.
However, his Cheltenham record is a mixed one, and he has struggled to maintain his form in previous years, running deplorably on his final appearance of the season at Aintree in each of the last three campaigns.
Two of those races came over trips in excess of his best, but he was beaten so far out in both contests that a lack of stamina couldn’t be cited as the reason for his dismal displays.
The son of Dubawi has also had a history of breathing problems, which may explain why he runs well fresh and so abjectly at the end of the season.
Trainer Paul Nicholls is adamant that he always viewed Dodging Bullets as a Champion Chase contender and that his physical maturation has now allowed him to realise his talent.
Starting his season a month later than usual looks a smart move on the part of the Ditcheat handler. There may still be enough in the tank for one more huge effort, but the blazing early pace he seems likely to face here will expose any chinks in his armour.
Champagne Fever boasts an enviable record at Prestbury Park. He would be unbeaten in all three of his previous visits to the Cheltenham Festival but for coming out on the wrong side of a bobbing finish against Western Warhorse in last season’s Arkle, where he was collared on the line.
Ruby Walsh’s mount travelled ominously well for a long way in the King George at Christmas before his stamina gave way, with his two subsequent starts coming over two and a half miles on home soil.
Ryanair Chase favourite Don Cossack did seem to be getting the better of Champagne Fever in a protracted duel in the Kinloch Brae Chase at Thurles when the latter tipped up at the final fence, but the grey emerged unscathed and registered a bloodless win in the Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park on his last start.
Presumably, Champagne Fever will be ridden prominently as he reverts to the minimum trip, and he could attempt to make all, a tactic that has yielded much success in the past. However, the presence of Special Tiara in the field almost certainly means that the race will be run at a blazing early pace. Sticking too close to it could have a fatal impact on his prospects.
Mr Mole might just be a four-legged version of Dimitar Berbatov. He possesses bucket-loads of talent, but his temperament and appetite for battle rival that of the languid Bulgarian. Unbeaten this winter, trainer Paul Nicholls believes Mr Mole to be a reformed character, but he performed poorly on his only previous visit here and may be better suited by bossing single-figure fields.
Nicky Richards has taken a softly, softly approach with Simply Ned and his charge has made steady if unspectacular progress over the last couple of seasons.
The eight-year-old humped a big weight to victory at Kelso on his first start this term before finishing just ahead of Dodging Bullets when second to Uxizandre at Cheltenham. Those two horses have gone in very different directions in the intervening period and the former obviously improved significantly for what was his seasonal debut.
Richards opted to head across the Irish Sea at Christmas to contest the Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase on his final start before the Festival and his limitations were seemingly exposed when he could finish no better than third behind Twinlight.
Special Tiara's talent should have yielded far more than the four wins that he’s accrued to date, but he doesn’t help himself with his gung-ho running style. His two most impressive wins have come in Graded company at Aintree and Kempton, sharp tracks which force horses to curb their enthusiasm.
Replicating that form at a galloping, testing track like Chelteham will likely prove beyond him, but he should go well for a long way before his exertions finally tell. Regardless of where he finishes, he could have a massive impact on the outcome of this race.
Verdict: Tuesday’s Champion Hurdle featured a dawdling early pace, but Special Tiara’s presence in the line-up should ensure a strong gallop from the outset in the feature race on the second day of the Festival. If harassed for the lead by Champagne Fever and Mr Mole, which is a distinct possibility, we could see an unsustainable pace generated.
Sprinter Sacre, Sire De Grungy, Champagne Fever, Dodging Bullets and Mr Mole dominate this market. The odds imply that the chance of one of them triumphing is over 85%, but figuring out which of them will win is devilishly difficult and I can see a few of the star names bombing and running well below their best.
The outsiders in the market don’t make much appeal either as they’re either too old or just haven’t run fast enough to make an impact here.
Savello could be overpriced at a 100-1, but a lifetime best might still only see him finish sixth.
Simply Ned, who can be backed at 20-1, is no world beater but could well be suited by the way this race will be run. He’s likely to be held up and could pick up the pieces and run on into a place if the race falls apart. His run at Leopardstown over Christmas was unexceptional, but the hope is that he improves for his return to faster terrain. It’s notable that his trainer - who has a pretty abject record at Cheltenham - had avoided running him on heavy ground until his most recent outing.
There was a degree of confidence in the prospects of Faugheen and Arctic Fire in yesterday’s column, but this is very much a straw-clutching exercise. Stakes should be kept to the bare minimum.
Simply Ned - 0.5 point each-way at best available odds
