Four Willie Mullins-trained horses dominate the key races on Day One at the 2015 Cheltenham Festival. Douvan, Une De Sceaux, Faugheen and Annie Power will bid for Cheltenham glory, carrying the hopes of a significant number of punters on both sides of the Irish side as they do so.
Starting at 1.30pm,the first two races will see Douvan and Un De Sceaux set the tone for the day. There will then be a brief hiatus for a handicap chase at 2.40 before Faugheen in the Champion and Annie Power in the Mares’ Hurdle take their chances over the next two races.
Are they certainties? Which one is a Festival banker? Fortunes may be made and lost but for the average punter it is worth remembering that the odds on all four landing the odds are around 16/1.
There are plenty of views below, but Ted Walsh’s advice that "they won’t all win” may be the best to follow.
1.30 The Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (12 runners, 2m110yds)
Novice form is notoriously difficult to read and the Cheltenham factor is a further complication as it sees horses used to smaller fields and a more sedate pace pitched in together in a large group. A cut-throat pace is the inevitable result.
The upshot is that this race is is a notorious graveyard for favourites. Only one of the last 10 have won (Brave Inca in 2004). Vautour won as joint-favourite last year.
For many experienced Festival followers, it’s one to watch rather than invest in, but with Mullins so bullish about Douvan and punters having waited 12 months for Festival action, there will be plenty of betting ring activity.
Willie Mullins (Trainer, Douvan): "Douvan looks the part. He does everything so naturally at home and on the racecourse when we have run him, so fingers crossed he can do it in Cheltenham as well.
"I think the track will suit and coming up that hill is what he wants. His jumping is good enough and Ruby (Walsh) is very happy with him. He's surprised me as he's a big angular horse and looks immature and you'd think he'd want another season under his belt, but he does everything so easily.”
Ruby Walsh (Jockey, Douvan): “I don’t think he is quite the finished article like Champagne Fever and Vautour were. Douvan is more expectation than what he has done on the form.”
Davy Russell (Jockey): “I like Bentelimar at a huge price. I’m not saying he’s going to win the race but I like him at a very big price.”
Liam Nash (Journalist): "It is hard to go against Douvan after what has been said him and what has been said about him. I still think L’Ami Serge at 4/1 is better value."
Ted Walsh (Trainer/Analyst): “Douvan is a very skimpy price for what he has done. You are basically going on Willie Mullins’ high profile and opinion. But that has to be respected. If Willie Mullins stands up and says ‘this is as good a horse as I’ve sent to Cheltenham’, what sort of gobshite would you be to disagree with him?
"My only worry is that Douvan travels on the bridle. We haven’t seen him dipped on the track."
Tom Segal (journalist, Racing Post): “Douvan hasn’t done anything wrong but the only you’d say is that the form’s not brilliant. Even just looking at the Racing Post Ratings he is not top. A lot of it is down to reputation but then we are talking about Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh. Everything is pointing to him being a really good horse. He just looks a bad price on what we have seen so far. He is not a 2/1 or 7/4 shot for me.
“I can see Douvan winning easily but at the prices, you’ve got to take him on. I like Jollyallen, I am worried about his jumping but on better ground he might get it together. I also think Qewy is a big player."
2.05pm Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (11 runners, 2m)
Un De Sceaux is the hotpot in this one and having treated punters to an exhibition when winning the Irish Arkle at Punchestown, albeit in a small field at Leopardstown, it’s not hard to see why.
He may only have beaten two home that day but the nature of his victory, a dominant, front-running display with bold jumping to boot, means he is seen as the only winner if he has a clear round by many good judges.
But that is no certainty with the possibility that Un De Sceaux won't have things all his own way up front in this field. Jumping is always a huge part of the equation with two-mile ‘chasing.
Short-priced favourites won the race in 2012 (Sprinter Sacre) and 2013 (Simonsig) but Western Warhorse’s victory last year at 33/1 showed that anything can happen.
The victim on that occasion was another Mullins horse with a big reputaiton – Champagne Fever. The Carlow man is still waiting for his first win in the race.
Ruby Walsh (Jockey, Un De Sceaux): “He is brave, attacks his fences and is a simple horse to ride. You don’t have to think too much tactically. It is very straightforward. He is exciting us at home and he has done everything right. I just hope the occasion doesn’t get to him. There is no holding on to him, even riding him at home. I don’t like going as fast as Un De Sceaux goes, I don’t think it is the right thing to do but unfortunately with Un De Sceaux you’re not really in control of that.”
Oscar Yeadon (Racing Manager for owners Axom): "Vibrato Valtat has improved leaps and bounds and has done very well over fences with his chase mark now at 162 following his win at Warwick. He had a wind operation after his run in the Swinton Hurdle which is one of the routine things Paul (Nicholls) does with his horses, but we have not looked back since switching him to fences.
"He will probably face Un De Sceaux who has pretty solid form and deserves to be favourite, but we go there on merit having pretty solid form behind us ourselves and he is on an upward curve. We are now looking forward to see him run in the race."
Willie Mullins (trainer, Un De Sceaux): "He is an extraordinarily short price, but the punters and the bookmakers have all decided if he stands up he wins. I'm happy to go along with that! He learnt his trade jumping in France and we think that's a great base for chasers.
"He's not mistake-prone. He normally meets his fences right and jumps them right, but I do know that he's able to put in a short one as well. That will stand him in good stead around Cheltenham."
2.40pm The Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase (24 runners, 3m1f)
Where will punters stand after those opening races? Either way, this handicap chase will give a small bit of breathing space. The JP McManus-owned Pendra is the market leader and Champion Jockey Tony McCoy’s first big chance of the meeting.
Charlie Longsdon (Trainer, Pendra): “He has not run since finishing fourth at Newbury in November as has had a wind operation. He has been in good form and we could have run him at Warwick, but we thought we would leave it and go straight to Cheltenham. We are not bothered about going there fresh as he is a bit more streetwise than last year."
3.20pm The Stan James Champion Hurdle (eight runners, 2m)
The unbeaten Faugheen is the market leader at 5/4 having won the Neptune last year. Supporters of The New One, considered unlucky last year after being hampered by the fall of the unfortunate Our Conor, and the champion Jezki, who is at his best at this time of year, can also make solid arguments in favour of their selections. With only eight in the race, there may be each way value in the 11-year-old Hurricane Fly, who has been pushed back out to 10/1.
Ted Walsh: “It’s a skimpy enough old price but I think Faugheen is a better price at 5/4 than Une De Sceaux is at 4/7. He mightn’t have beaten any stars, but he has beaten them all very easily. He has had a very light campaign, he is very fresh. His jumping, which I thought was a little bit in and out last year, has got better. I know he hasn’t be tested. If he is the horse we think he is, and hope he is....I don’t think it’s a vintage Champion Hurdle.”
Davy Russell: “I think Jezki is going to be the biggest danger to the favourite. Faugheen did an extraordinary thing last year, he missed the third-last and the second-last poorly but it made no difference to him. Whether it will make a difference in a Champion Hurdle, I don’t know. He did the same at Kempton. He doesn’t make a mistake, he just drops his hind legs first. It doesn’t seem to slow him down but if he did it through the middle part of the race too many times that would be a factor. One horse that has the ability and the class and the liking for the track to take advantage would be Jezki.”
Liam Nash: "From what we have seen there is only and a length or half-a-length between Jezki and Hurricane Fly with Arctic Fire just behind them. Everyone is saying The New One was unlucky last year, which he certainly was. But suppose he didn’t make that mistake how much would he have beaten Jezki by? I think he’d have been near enough and that they are all much of a muchness. In the hope that Faugheen is a bit special and would fancy Faugheen.”
Leon Blanche (bookmaker, BoyleSports): “It’s your own decision if you want to back a horse at 5/4. I think the quicker they go the better he will jump. I thought just when they started to turn on the taps, The New One was caught for a little bit of toe. He went by Hurricane Fly when he was nearly stopped and it looked better on camera because he was going by Hurricane, but he never really gained on the first two. I’m with Faugheeen and I think at 5/4 there are enough question marks about the rest of them."
4pm OLBG Mares Hurdle (15 runners, 2m4f)
Jason Maguire and Whiteoak won the first of these in 2008 but it has been the domain of Quevaga since and she landed her sixth in a row last year. Since retired, Annie Power is expected to inherit her crown this time. She was second in the World Hurdle last year, losing out to More Of That when sent off the 11/8f.
But despite having not been seen on the track this season, Annie Power expected to do the business against her fellow mares with Glens Melody, also trained by Mullins, seen as the main challenger to the favourite.
Ruby Walsh (Jockey, Annie Power): "Annie Power is in great form. She had a bit of a hold-up in December but she hasn’t missed a beat since the first of January. She’s in really good nick. People are saying she should go for the World Hurdle but to go to the World Hurlde without a run would be very, very hard (and) to go three miles in that environment would be very, very hard. She has the option of the Mares’ Hurlde and I think that is where she should be going.”
Wayne Hutchinson (Jockey, L’Unique): “We are very happy with her and if she can reproduce last year's run in this race when third behind Quevega then she is going to be bang there. Annie Power should win this strictly on form and Willie Mullins has probably got the 1-2 in the race with Glens Melody.
"L'Unique was well beaten by the latter at Warwick last season but then only just behind her at the Festival so Annie Power is the one to beat although we have a live each-way chance.”
4.40pm Toby Balding National Hunt Chase (17 runners, 4m)
A race for amateurs over four miles, Nina Carberry will wear the Gigginstown colours on the favourite Very Wood for Noel Meade. Very Wood has been switched from the RSA Chase and into this race and so avoids Don Poli.
Meade’s Wounded Warrior, also owned by Giggionstown, goes the other way and will run in the RSA. Sam Waley-Cohen, who has received numerous poor reviews of his riding when up against the professionals, is on the other main fancy Sego Success for Alan King.
Noel Meade (trainer, Very Wood): "We had a discussion this morning and decided Very Wood will run in the four-miler. We're just thinking about the ground for later in the week. I think the ground (on Tuesday) might be too good for Wounded Warrior. There might be some rain coming in ahead of racing on Wednesday, so the plan at the moment is to run Wounded Warrior in the RSA. The horses have just been out and seem in great shape. They've all eaten up and seem in good form, so we're happy."
5.15pm Chaps Restaurants Barbados Novices’ Handicap (20 runners, 2m4f)
A tricky handicap with no clear favourite and no runner bigger than 50/1 with the major bookmakers. Thomas Crapper, running over fences for the first time, is the market leader while Evan Williams-trained Court Minstrel, which struggled on soft ground at Newbury in December, should be closer to his best here.
Robin Dickin (trainer, Thomas Crapper): "Thomas Crapper has done fabulously over the summer and the time has come to go over fences with him. He was actually ready to go chasing last year and we thought that the icing on the cake would be to give him a run over hurdles first. He had already schooled around Towcester this time last year and we thought that we would have a nice day out at Cheltenham at the start of last season but he won, so we decided to stick to hurdles.”
Evan Williams (trainer, Court Minstrel): "We wanted to get another run into him, but sometimes it goes against you. At the end of the day we came home with a sound horse and that is the main thing.
"I'd prefer not to go to Cheltenham with him if I didn't have to. I've no big ambitions at the moment and we could get his ground somewhere else. He could be a Liverpool horse but he's so ground dependent. I won't be running him on anything like that ground again.”
