Hurricane Fly’s return to winning ways has been the story of the National Hunt season. For a fifth consecutive year he arrives here on the back of an unbeaten campaign, a scenario which seemed unlikely after his efforts behind Jezki in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham and Punchestown at the end of the season.
Willie Mullins’ veteran was already strutting his stuff on the Flat in France before his rivals in this race were glints in their fathers’ eyes. The high point of his time on the level came almost eight years ago at Saint-Cloud in the Paris suburbs when he accounted for future Group One winners Literato and Spirit One.
That standard of some of his vanquished foes in the National Hunt arena may not stand up to scrutiny, but you don’t rack up a record-shattering 22 Grade One wins without beating a host of top-class horses along the way.
It’s harsh to crab the Cheltenham record of a horse who has won two Champion Hurdles, but there’s an argument that the son of Montjeu has been more impressive and more consistent elsewhere.
He became the first Cheltenham Festival winner for his sire when he powered up the hill in 2011, but disappointed in third 12 months later. However, his preparation for the 2012 renewal was far from ideal, and turning up for the white heat of battle on the back of one run that season in the Irish Champion Hurdle probably contributed largely to his defeat.
He regained his crown in 2013, becoming the first to manage that feat since Comedy Of Errors in 1975, but may have been slightly flattered by his two-and-a-half length margin of victory. Runner-up Rock On Ruby set a ferocious pace that day and Hurricane Fly undoubtedly benefited to some degree by sitting a few lengths off it for much of the way. He also had to be bustled along earlier than he, and we, were accustomed to as the high tempo seemed to take him out of his comfort zone.
There’s little to say about last season’s fourth-place finish, with the result a fair reflection of his performance on the day.
Versatility is just one of the traits the 11-year-old has displayed in his stellar career, but what are his optimum conditions?
Many of his best performances have come on soft or heavy ground, while he’s been at his most visually impressive in his victories featuring a slow or moderate early pace. When both of these elements are present, he’s proven nigh on unbeatable.
Hurricane Fly and Jezki ignored the unsustainable early pace set by Little King Robin in their seasonal debuts at Punchestown on soft ground at the start of the season, but when the leader gave way Hurricane Fly already seemed to be getting the better of things before his rival blundered the last flight.
"The theory that Hurricane Fly isn’t at his best at Prestbury Park isn’t a new one"
Hurricane Fly again repelled Jezki in a battle royale at Leopardstown at Christmas in a race run on soft ground but at a sound pace. Drying ground should have given Jezki a decent shot at turning the tables in the Irish Champion Hurdle last time out, but a soft early pace and a calamitous error at the last ended those hopes. The mistake obviously cost Jessica Harington’s charge valuable momentum at a crucial stage of the race, but the response when he got back on an even keel was slightly disappointing.
The theory that Hurricane Fly isn’t at his best at Prestbury Park isn’t a new one, but it seems to have gained real traction in the past year. Factor in his defeat here last year, his advancing years and the fact that he may have been primed to run his heart out over the winter months, and you can see just why the betting public haven’t heeded Mullins’ advice that he’s the each-way bet of the week. Winning in this spot would be a fairytale denouement to the story arc that has been Hurricane Fly’s season and would have to represent a new zenith in his trainer’s formidable list of achievements, but the skies may have to open and the pace may have to be atypically slow for that to happen.
Ruby Walsh didn’t reveal his decision to partner Faugheen until Saturday, but even Hurricane Fly’s most ardent fan would find it hard to quibble with his call.
Aside from being unbeaten and looking unbeatable in his eight stars under Rules, he’s displayed a versatility that no other in this field can rival.
He’s won races over two to three miles on ground varying from good to heavy and has yet to win by less than three-and-three quarter lengths. Those citing concerns over whether he merits being a short-priced favourite for this race have cited the form of his wins and his jumping technique as negatives.
His win in last year’s Neptune at the Festival hasn’t been fully tested as three of the first five home haven’t reappeared. Fourth-placed Killala Quay may be no world beater but Lieutenant Colonel – sixth that day – has developed into Ireland’s leading staying hurdler.
Faugheen recorded impressive mid-race fractions in victory and winners of the race boast an impressive record when they drop in trip and contest the Champion Hurdle.
"Faugheen commenced this season with a facile win against outmatched opposition at Ascot"
Having proved himself no slouch when scoring by a yawning 12 lengths at the Punchestown Festival, he commenced this season with a facile win against outmatched opposition at Ascot.
The standard of the field in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on his last start again left something to be desired, but it quelled almost all of my remaining doubts over his Cheltenham Hurdle credentials.
Kempton’s sharp, speed-favouring track shouldn’t favour a horse who displays as much stamina as Faugheen, but he managed to post fast closing fractions off a moderate early pace without being pushed out.
His jumping could certainly be more fluent at times, but he’s yet to make an error in his career as severe as those recorded in the past by nearest market rivals The New One and Jezki.
The New One recorded a rather laboured victory on his most recent start at Haydock, but the heavy ground he encountered in Merseyside was never likely to show him in a good light and he’s better judged by his other two victories this term. A more worrying aspect of his latest win was the reoccurrence of a tendency he’s displayed in the past to jump right. That’s something he can’t afford to do in a Champion Hurdle on a left-handed track.
Much debate in the past 12 months has surrounded how he would have fared in last season’s renewal had he not been hampered by the fall of the ill-fated Our Conor.
The loss of momentum has a major impact on a horse in any race, particularly one where the rivals are closely matched, but did it cost him the race?
It’s almost certain that he would have been battling out the finish with Jezki and My Tent Or Yours rather than claiming a fast-finishing third, but a slackening of the pace mid-race allowed him to regain much of the ground he lost without expending too much energy before he became outpaced on the turn for home. The inability to match the leaders as they kicked on was slightly disappointing.
Jezki’s Champion Hurdle defence appeared to be very much on track when he was just edged out by Hurricane Fly in the Ryanair thriller at Christmas. Improving for his seasonal debut, but still racing on ground softer than ideal, he got closer to ending Hurricane Fly’s unbeaten record in Foxrock than any rival has previously managed.
In the wake of that performance, it was surprising to see him run slightly sub-par in the Irish Champion Hurdle. The soft early pace wouldn’t have aided his cause, nor would his clanger at the last, but his effort on the run-in was still below what could be expected of a Cheltenham contender approaching peak fitness.
Barry Geraghty partnered Jezki to success in last year’s renewal to maintain his unbeaten record on Jessica Harrington’s stable star, but has subsequently made way for Tony McCoy, who doesn’t seem to enjoy the same affinity with the horse.
Arctic Fire was obviously flattered to finish second in that Irish Champion Hurdle, but that comment doesn’t necessarily apply to his big run behind Jezki and Hurricane Fly at Christmas. The son of Soldier Hollow looked a long way short of Champion Hurdle class in his first two runs of the season, but there were signs at the end of his last campaign that he could blossom in 2015.
He finished second in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham and probably would have prevailed but for pulling hard in the early stages. That was followed by a comprehensive win in a strongly-run race on his return to novice company at Punchestown.
Much of the improvement he showed last year could be attributed to the pace scenarios he experienced at both those festivals and a fast early pace is probably a prerequisite if he is to outrun his odds here. But he’s also seemed a far more physically and mentally mature specimen this season, and having proven recalcitrant on occasions in the past, he’s now adopted a far more professional approach.
Kitten Rock may prove best of the rest, but this race will probably come a year too soon for Eddie O’Grady’s charge.
Verdict: Arctic Fire could offer the best value in this year’s Champion Hurdle. Having arrived at negative views on the prospects of Hurricane Fly and the New One at their prices and a neutral one about Jezki (after yo-yoing between bullishness and bearishness in recent months), he’s the one that makes most appeal at quotes as big as 20-1. It’s not often you get the opportunity to avail of ¼ the odds 1-2-3 in the each-way market in an eight-runner race and that prospect makes plenty of appeal.
You could draw parallels between Arctic Fire and Thousand Stars. Willie Mulllins’ grey required a strong pace and a sound surface to be seen at his best over this trip, comments that could well apply to Arctic Fire, and both have run in the shadow of more illustrious stablemates and started at inflated odds.
Thousand Stars claimed fourth in his only run in the Cheltenham Hurdle and that’s exactly where I think Arctic Fire will finish.
However, Danny Mullins mount isn’t as exposed as Thousand Stars was and the hope is that the ceiling on his ability is higher. The gap between him and a number of those ahead of him in the market may not be as great as the odds suggest.
However, despite an aversion to short-priced favourites, particularly at the Cheltenham Festival, I’m very much in the believer rather than the sceptic camp when it comes to favourite Faugheen. The thought of him winning and the prospect of then losing on the race is pretty unpalatable. Quotes of 5-4 and bigger could still represent a smidgeon of value.
Faugheen: 2 points at best available odds
Arctic Fire: 1 point each-way at best available odds
