RTÉ.ie's Barry McEneaney previews this weekend's Breeders' Cup action from Santa Anita.
As the Flat season in this part of the world draws to an end and fizzles out like the veritable damp squib, things are hotting up Stateside as Santa Anita hosts the 26th edition of the Breeders’ Cup.
This year marks the first time that the self-proclaimed ‘World Championships’ of racing has been held in consecutive years at the same track.
The title is something of a misnomer, as it’s more akin to racing’s Ryder Cup with the US taking on Europe in an end-of-season extravaganza. Horsemen from South America, South Africa the Far East and Australia would baulk at the notion it’s anything else. The Dubai World Cup meet in March has more realistic claims to such a tag as it has proven a truly global event.
Crabbing over, I actually am a massive fan of the event. Who couldn’t be? The answer to that question is ‘plenty’, but more of that later.
The chance to see some of the best horses from two continents lock horns should appeal to any racing fan. Sea The Stars may be heading off to a lucrative career at stud, and Rachel Alexandra may be bypassing the meeting due to her owners' aversion to ‘synthetics’ (much of which is due to the defeat of his raging hot favourite Curlin in last year’s Classic), but it still offers up a unique highlight in the racing calendar.
Parish-pump punting
The Breeders’ Cup hasn’t grabbed the betting public’s imagination in the way the festivals at Cheltenham, Aintree, Royal Ascot or Galway have, and that’s understandable. The racing fan is one of the most insular animals you could find. Ally that to the fact that National Hunt racing is the first love of most enthusiasts in these islands and it’s clear international Flat racing is always going to be fighting a losing battle.
The immediacy of the lad who owns the local giving you word for one of his in a handicap hurdle at Thurles can’t be replicated by an anonymous breeder with a contender in a race thousands of miles away.
But just as the Flat season doesn’t truly take off until the Craven meeting, the National Hunt season doesn’t crank into top gear until the Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham. The chance to bet on those horses you’ve been following all year - at often-inflated prices - should be too attractive an opportunity to pass up.
Watching the markets
There may have been carnage on the international stock markets in recent years, but the Breeders' Cup has offered some massive dividends to investors.
When Andre Fabre - one of Europe’s greatest-ever trainers - sent out Arcangues to win the 1993 renewal of the Classic under Jerry Bailey, he returned at just under a staggering 134-1 on the pari-mutuel market.
A $2 bet paid $269.20 for the win, $54.40 for the place, and $18.20 for the show. The global village that we now all inhabit and the exchange of information via the internet means such a future return from a European raider trained by a master of his craft would be inconceivable.
But international racing and meetings such as the Breeders’ Cup still present the best chance to capitalise on the ignorance and prejudice of other gamblers. Only last year John Gosden became the second European trainer to win the Classic when Raven’s Pass finally got revenge on Aidan O’Brien’s Henrythenavigator.
The industry SP for the winner was 8-1, but those who stipulated PMU when placing their bets were paid out at 13 1/2-1, with a $2 wager returning $29. Henrythenavigator’s place odds Stateside almost matched his win odds in this part of the world, and the exacta return for the two fancied European runners was just over 158-1.
While experience indicates that European raiders should for the most part be backed at local odds, the opposite is the case for the home contingent. Irish and British bookmakers are still offering some big prices on US runners and they should be your first port of call.
These markets move in a very predictable way. On race day the American horses will contract, while the Euros drift, generally. Once it becomes apparent to punters that the Euros are going to be bigger prices in the US the bookmakers are forced to push out prices to fill their books. Many of the American runners will then be trimmed in the market. So if you fancy a Yank, get on early.
The Breeders' Cup is one of those occasions when having more than one bet in the same race should be actively encouraged. The discrepancies between the markets means backing two or three runners in the same race can offer value.
Tradition dictates that I’ll be in a pub for the tenth annual Breeders’ Cup Super Fun Time (strange bunch of friends). But where once I had legs there be surgically grafted laptops, mine eye holes will contain iPhones. The importance of monitoring the volatile US and European fixed odds can’t be overstated in the run-up to each race.
Betfair move a bad one for punters?
Betfair’s entry into the US market via direct access to the pari-mutuel pools has been a major talking point Stateside. This could prove a double-edged sword for punters. Choice and innovation should be welcomed, but at what cost?
The exotics market (exacta, trifecta, pick four, pick six etc) has been a mainstay of US RACING since its inception and I’ll be one of many dusting the cobwebs of the wallet to play.
The downside is more subtle. The dominant force in exchange betting has over 2.5 million customers worldwide, but is prohibited by law from taking wagers from citizens in the US.
If the heavy-hitters in Ireland, Britain and mainland Europe start piling into the pools in a meaningful way the advantage enjoyed by punters in this neck of the woods for so long could become eroded to a point where both markets start heading towards parity and an unattractive equilibrium is achieved. My US bets will remain with the camel coat brigade.
Keep an eye on that coat
The racing in California takes place two weeks later than at last year’s meet. This can only have negative implications for the European runners.
Trainers are creatures of habit and having your stable stars at the top of their game going into the second week of November isn’t something they are accustomed to. But the primary concern is something outside the control of the trainer - namely the effect of cold, wet weather on their charges.
Keeping physical condition on an animal over the course of a long, hard season is a daunting task. You’ll often hear trainers say a horse was ‘over the top’ in late autumn after an inexplicably poor performance. But when they start to go in their coat and get woolly it’s time to really worry.
Sea The Stars was remarkable not only for the performances he delivered, but also for the way he was trained and his own ability to improve physically as the season progressed. Most top-class three year-olds get a mid-season break to recover from their earlier exertions, but not Sea The Stars.
It’s a testament to his ability and the prowess of John Oxx that he achieved such physical improvement, but even he was beginning to go in his coat when he ran in the Arc. That resulted in him sweating up, yet still winning with ease. Very few are blessed with that kind of natural ability and a winter coat in the Californian heat could spell disaster.
Clock creatures
It’s fascinating how American and European racing fans approach trying to find winners. Time is paramount in the US mind, while in Europe it’s often an afterthought. It’s easy to see why. All US races are run on left-handed, flat ovals. There’s a consistency to US racing that can’t be replicated here. We have left-handed, right-handed, flat, undulating, galloping, sharp, heavy and firm tracks to deal with. Throw in rail movement and unreliable going description by track officials and you could see the headaches the European racing fan has to contend with.
Andy Beyer is the king of American speed figures and he was responsible for revolutionising the way Americans bet on racing when he unleashed them on the public in the 1980s.
However, his figures have not proved reliable on artificial surfaces. Traditional dirt races tend to be run at a ferocious pace from the off by our standards, but such tactics are rarely rewarded on artificial services where slow early fractions and big finishes have been rewarded. Dirt performers have struggled in such races while turf performers have thrived as these races have been run as de grass races.
Surface & Draw
Santa Anita’s turf course almost always rides firm and this weekend will be no different. Animal welfare experts convinced Californian lawmakers to outlaw dirt surfaces paving the way for Polytrack, Cushion and Pro-Ride surfaces in the Golden State.
The pioneering, forward-thinking Californian spirit meant locals were quick to embrace the surface, but the surface has proven contentious with the good ol’ boys in the South and the more conservative horsemen on the East coast, who have been at pains to make their disdain for the surface known to anyone who’ll listen.
The relentless galloper has been usurped by the horse that can quicken and that means that the European battalion could even surpass last year’s record haul of five winners.
California dreaming? Perhaps. Conspiracy theorists reckon that the track could be doctored to suit the US horses who generally like to set a searing pace, so Friday’s races should prove informative.
Historical data suggest wide draws are disadvantageous on both surfaces, with that bias more pronounced on the turf course.
People watching
Expect to see some very, very taut necks on some very, very old men/women as Hollywood glitterati show up in force to watch proceedings. The movie industry and racing have always been inextricably linked in the state.
In the 1930s Hollywood celebrities flocked to the track in Tijuana to drink, gamble and fornicate (that’s what they called it back then, apparently) as two of these three activities were banned in their own back yard. When the laws changed the likes of Bing Crosby, Oliver Hardy, Jack Warner, Al Jolson were just some of the stars who developed racetracks.
That fame factor even permeates the training ranks. Bob Baffert, the state’s leading trainer is a dead ringer for Don Johnson circa the Nash Bridges era, while Chip Woolley, trainer of this year’s Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, looks like he just wandered off the set of some western after a particularly bloody saloon shoot-out (you can just picture him saying something along the line of ‘you gone kilt my paw!’).
All human life gathers here.
Selections
Friday’s card commences at 8.35pm with the Marathon. The 1m6f trip may not be regarded as a true test of staying power in Europe, but it’s viewed in a very different light in a country where the emphasis is very much on speed.
Father Time, Mastery, Man Of Iron and Muhannak are fancied to fill at least three of the first four places. Night Lute is probably the best of a weak American challenge.
Henry Cecil has an outstanding record at the Breeders’ Cup, and although he has yet to record a winner at the meeting four of his six runners have been placed. His Father Time finished behind the Godolphin runner Mastery in the St Leger last time out, but his breeding and running style suggests that he could reverse that form here and give Cecil a long-overdue victory. Defending champion Muhannak would be a danger to all if recapturing his best form and he showed he was coming to the boil when fifth at Ascot on his most recent start.
Lillie Langtry looks the clear form pick in the Juvenile Fillies’ Turf, while Negligee and Always A Princess look like the two capable of upsetting favourite Blink Look in the Juvenile Fillies on the main track.
Defending champion Forever Together is a tentative selection in the Filly & Mare Turf, but the wiseguy play could be to combine her with live dangers Midday and Magical Fantasy in exactas and trifectas as the field seems to lack strength in depth.
The Fillly & Mare Sprint would appear to be a match between Informed Decision and Ventura, with preference for the latter, who enjoys home advantage.
The defection of Zenyatta leaves the Ladies’ Classic without a standout candidate, but John Gosden’s Rainbow View shouldn’t be far away.
Saturday’s action kicks off with the Juvenile Turf where Interactif looks the one to beat. John Gosden’s Pounced ran second in a strong renewal of the Prix Jean Luc Lagardere last time out and has a major shout, while Jeremy Noseda’s hard-pulling Awesome Act will be a danger to all if he ever learns to settle in his races. The turning nature of the Santa Anita track means Saturday may be the day that happens.
Golden Jubilee second Cannonball has a decent chance in an open Turf Sprint, as do the fillies Gotta Have Her and Diamondrella.
The main Sprint features Bob Baffert’s freaky speedster, and clear favourite Zensational. The three-year-old has won his last four starts, but there are strong grounds for opposing him. One of the hardest pullers you’re ever likely to see, Zensational’s explosive pace from the stalls is so great that he finds negotiating turns a major headache. The fact that he has drawn stall one should put him at a major disadvantage in this race, as does the fact that all the early speed in the race is in the inside stalls. Gayego is a confident selection, while Capt Candyman can fill the runner-up berth. Fleeting Spirit and Fatal Bullet are the best of the rest.
Ballydoyle has an abundance of two-year-old talent at their disposal this year, and while the likes of St Nicholas Abbey and Steinback have remained at home, Alfred Nobel and Beethoven each have outstanding chances in the Juvenile.
Beethoven hadn’t looked one of the yard’s leading lights until he won the Dewhurst, and he may well struggle to progress at three, but he has a professional approach and a willing attitude and that’s what you need in this race.
Alfred Nobel disappointed in the National Stakes, but that reversal came on unsuitably soft ground. Last time out at Newmarket he faced an impossible task in a race with a strong draw bias, but he went on to win the race on his side and could be the one to lead home an O’Brien 1-2.
Freddie Head’s super-mare Goldikova looks poised to defend her Mile title and her defeat last time out can be attributed to a poor tactical ride by Olivier Peslier, who set frantic early fractions. Zacinto looks destined for at least a place.
Mastercraftsman is a strong favourite for the so-called Dirt Mile, but it’s worth bearing in mind that Aidan O’Brien doesn’t have the best record with his three-year-olds in late-season Group 1 races. Quality opposition is thin on the ground as the likes of Bullsbay and Pyro have proven that they are much better on genuine dirt. In my mind, a race to avoid.
Conduits rates an outstanding bet in the Turf as the race should be run to suit him. Many expressed fears over his ability to cope with the drop back in trip at last year’s meeting following his win in the St Leger, but he belied those fears to deliver an authoritative victory.
Inveterate front-runner Presious Passion will ensure a fast pace and could build up a massive early lead, but those tactics should play to the strengths of Ryan Moore’s mount. Of greater concern to his followers will be how he copes on the anti-bleeding medication Salix for the first time. Dar Re Mi looks destined to reach the first three.
The Classic conundrum will be a hard one to crack. Sea The Stars would have been a confident selection had he lined up, but that scenario hasn’t materialised.
The favourite, at least on these shores, will be Rip Van Winkle, who would have been hailed as the outstanding three-year-old of his generation but for John Oxx’s stable star. He’s the best horse in the race on all known form.
Rip is a very plausible winner, but whether his current odds with the fixed odds firms represent value is another matter. His well-documented hoof problems, a long, gruelling season, a tough race last time out, an arduous trip to the States that seems to have taken alot out of the horse and an unproven record on the surface (he should handle it – but that has to be taken on trust), means that those prepared to take cramped odds should think twice. He’ll need to be at least 7-2 in the US pools before I can back him.
The unbeaten mare Zenyatta has strong claims to secure of at least a place to reward her connections bold move in sidestepping the Ladies’ Classic where she looked a penalty-kick.
I wouldn’t touch third favourite Summer Bird with a barge poll as he looks an out-and-out dirt performer. He also looks more than a shade one-paced.
Champion Stakes winner Twice Over may not have the class of Rip Van Winkle, but his well-being is assured and he rarely runs a bad race. At 16-1 with the Irish and UK bookmakers he represents outstanding each-way value. He may even return at a bigger price on the US Markets.
Richard’s Kid, Einstein and Quality Road look the main dangers.
Ok, I’m off for a spot of handicapping (gambling), as they say across the pond.
