Michael Phelps will become the most successful athlete at one Olympics by winning eight gold medals in Beijing, according to Mark Spitz - the man he is bidding to overtake.
The 23-year-old from Baltimore begins his record bid in the heats of the 400metres individual medley in the Water Cube on Saturday after narrowly failing to match fellow American swimmer Spitz's haul in Athens in 2004.
Spitz claimed seven titles in seven world records in Munich in 1972 before Phelps won six gold and two bronze medals four years ago.
But Spitz, who claimed nine Olympic golds in all, having won two in Mexico City in 1968, anticipates Phelps will top the podium in all eight events he has entered in the XXIX Olympiad having improved in the last four years.
‘He's definitely a better swimmer now,’ said Spitz.
‘I'd say there's maybe a three or four percent chance that he's not going to win eight gold medals and it will only be because he might get sick or something like that, some unforeseen situation.’
Prior to the Athens Games, Spitz made the same prediction.
However, 36 years on from his own miraculous feat, he now believes Phelps has a psychological stranglehold over his rivals after a near four-year unbeaten run.
‘He's doing exactly the same thing that happened with me and when you keep winning it's really difficult for your competitors to think they have an edge on you,’ added the 58-year-old, who was in Hong Kong on business.
Phelps won seven titles at the 2007 World Championships in Melbourne - a team-mate's mistake denied him the opportunity of an eighth in the 4 x 100m medley relay - and now holds world records in four out of the five individual events he has entered.
These statistics have firmed Spitz's belief in his compatriot, who will be going into his third Games, having swum in the 4 x 200m freestyle relay as a 15-year-old in Sydney.
‘He's got more experience and in five individual events four years ago, he only held the world record in three of them,’ added Spitz.
‘Now he has the world record in the 200 free, he's 20% stronger statistically.
‘But we don't swim on paper, we have to swim in the pool, so we'll see what happens.’
Spitz predicts the 100m butterfly, with the final on the penultimate day of competition, will be Phelps' toughest obstacle.
It is the one individual event in which he does not hold the world record - that honour falls to his team-mate Ian Crocker with a best time of 50.40 seconds, 0.37secs better than Phelps.
‘The 100 fly will be one of his hardest races,’ added Spitz.
‘It's the last individual event he swims and he's going to think whether he should swim, like I did.
‘I'd rather get six for six wins, than six wins and a third - he's already done that.’
Ryan Lochte is also going to pose a threat, having pushed Phelps all the way in the individual medley events at the United States Olympic trials in June.
Spitz added: ‘Ryan Lochte's going to have a real go at Phelps, so we'll see what happens.’
Phelps' bid could also come unstuck in the relays, with France, Australia and South Africa capable of winning, according to Spitz.
‘He's got several hurdles he's got to go through - it's not going to be easy,’ he added.
Spitz will be in Detroit during the Games after not receiving an invite to take part in the official proceedings.
‘I would've loved to have been there, but in light of the fact that this guy is trying to break my record, for me to be there anonymously, to sit in the stands and watch it, I'd be really uncomfortable about doing that,’ said Spitz.
‘If I was a part of the festivities, an award ceremony, that would be a lot more enjoyable for me, but I was never asked.’
