After waiting for hours on Monday for wind to arrive - only for too much to then come - the 10 sailors left in the Laser Radial race have to sail on Tuesday or else their current positions will hold for medals. Presuming it gets the go-ahead, what stands between Annalise Murphy and a medal?
The Dubliner will begin the race in third position after completing the final preliminaries on Saturday but, with the medal race offering double points to the 10 qualified boats, everything can still change as she bids to put the disappointment of her 2012 fourth place firmly behind her.
Murphy sits on a total of 57 points – the total of her nine best-placed finishes in the 10 preliminary races sailed over the past week.
Marit Bouwmeester of the Netherlands leads the overall standings on 47 points, while Denmark’s Anne-Marie Rindom is in second place, just two points ahead of Murphy.
Murphy's nearest rival for bronze is Belgium’s Evi van Acker, who blamed the polluted Rio waters for picking up a gastro bug earlier in the week, while Finland's Tuula Tenkanen is also in contention.
Here are the standings ahead of the medal race:
1. Bouwmeester (NED) 47
2. Rindom (DEN) 55
3. Murphy (IRL) 57
4. Van Acker (BEL) 66
5. Tenkanen (FIN) 68.6
So, about those permutations:
To win bronze
A top-five place in the medal race will guarantee Murphy a medal because to overtake her, London bronze medallist Van Acker must finish five places ahead of the Irish sailor.
Murphy could also overtake Rindom simply by finishing ahead of the second-placed Dane.
Finishing one place ahead of the world champion would bring Murphy level on points and ahead in the standings by virtue of a superior result in the medal race.
Sounds simple, but Rindom's remarkable consistency across the 10 races to date - she has five top-five results - makes that easier said than done.
To claim silver
In order to claim silver, Murphy must either beat both Van Acker or Rindom, as outlined above, or, if Rindom proves too strong, finish above Bouwmeester.
The Dutch woman is 10 points ahead of Murphy, so it will be tough to finish the five places ahead of her necessary to overtake her in the standings.
To claim gold
Quite simply, Annalise must manage to pull off the unlikely trifecta of results we have discussed. Beating Bouwmeester by five places and finishing ahead of Rindom will also ensure Van Acker cannot catch her.
