The previously predictable Leinster Hurling Championship has taken a complicated turn in the wake of Offaly's landmark draw against Kilkenny, a result which could have major implications for the final two rounds.
Offaly's rapid improvement and Kilkenny's greater-than-usual vulnerability have been the unexpected elements in this campaign.
They have given rise to a hitherto unthinkable possibility - that the Cats may fail to escape the Leinster championship for the first time in the round-robin era.
Kilkenny have won six provincial titles on the trot and have never failed to reach the Leinster final since the current format was instituted. They were beaten by Galway in a replay, played in Thurles, in the inaugural round-robin season in 2018 and lost to Wexford in the Croker decider the following year.
However, they have won the four subsequent Leinster titles played under this system, between 2022 and 2025.
Eoghan Cahill's contentious last-minute '65 to level the game in Tullamore has increased the stakes drastically for what could yet be a do-or-die elimination game between Dublin and Kilkenny in Parnell Park.
Should Offaly win their two remaining games, at home to Wexford and then away to Kildare, then Kilkenny will need a result away to Dublin on the last weekend or else exit the championship.
Offaly's fate isn't quite in their own hands - if Dublin beat Galway and then lose to Kilkenny, both them and the Cats will finish on seven points - but a win over a faltering Wexford will put them in a strong position entering the final round of games.
If Offaly can back up their progress by winning their two matches against the province's bottom two sides, they will finish the campaign on six points.
Dublin are currently on five points after their win in Wexford Park, while it is assumed that Kilkenny will climb onto the five-point mark after their home game against Kildare on Saturday.
Whether or not Dublin earn a result in Salthill, Kilkenny will potentially need at least a point - and possibly more - in Donnycarney in Round 5. Unless, that is, Kildare can do them a favour by turning over Offaly in Newbridge.
LEINSTER SHC: As it stands after Round 3
The good news for Kilkenny is that their head-to-head record against Dublin is stellar, having won every single Leinster SHC match between the pair under the current format. In addition to that, they won the 2021 and 2024 Leinster finals against Dublin with considerable ease.
In 2024, however, they had only two points to spare in Parnell Park and their form is far more unreliable in 2026.
A draw between Dublin and Kilkenny in Donnycarney would potentially leave a three-way tie on six points, with one team exiting the championship on score difference. Kilkenny are currently at +2, with Dublin at +16, though the former will be confident of overhauling that deficit against Kildare this weekend, especially if the Dubs' score difference disimproves in Galway.
REMAINING FIXTURES
Round 4
Galway v Dublin, Pearse Stadium, Sat 16 May, 4.30pm
Kilkenny v Kildare, UPMC Nowlan Park, Sat 16 May, 6pm
Offaly v Wexford, Glenisk O'Connor Park, Sat 16 May, 6pm
Round 5 - all on Sunday 24 May, 2pm
Dublin v Kilkenny, Parnell Park
Kildare v Offaly, Cedral St Conleth's Park
Wexford v Galway, Chadwick's Wexford Park
Whatever the shake-up - and there are many possibilities - a draw for Kilkenny in Dublin is likely to see them survive in the championship, at least.
One wrinkle is that Wexford are not yet out of the running and can feasibly finish on six points.
The Wexford hurlers are at a low ebb after their latest loss to Dublin, which followed their heavy defeat to Kilkenny in Nowlan Park.
Most observers are now making Offaly favourites to beat Wexford for the first time in championship since 2012, but if Keith Rossiter's side can reassert their supremacy over the midlanders, they could potentially benefit from favourable scheduling.
A Galway victory over Dublin in Salthill on Saturday would guarantee top spot and a place in the Leinster final for the westerners, meaning they'll have nothing riding on their Round 5 game against Wexford in the south-east.
In that context, it's probable that Micheál Donoghue may give several of his younger stars - especially the Under-20 contingent - the weekend off. A defeat would hardly be a terrible outcome, if it held the potential of eliminating Kilkenny in the process.
It wouldn't be the first time a kind fixture list had come to Wexford's rescue in Leinster, though there's a lot that has to happen yet.
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