Will it be third time lucky for Clare against Kilkenny in today's first All-Ireland semi-final?
They didn’t have much fortune in 2022 when John Conlon was a late change due to a back injury. But even if he had played, the Banner looked spent after an extra-time Munster final defeat to Limerick and a late rally to get past Wexford. The Cats had it in the bag by half-time when they led by 14 points and closed it out by nine.
Last year, Brian Lohan seemed to overthink it by uncharacteristically going with a sweeper in the first half, in a bid to prevent the leakiness of the year before. They didn't concede a goal but only managed 10 points at the other end to Kilkenny's 15.
Clare reverted to their typical man-to-man approach for the second period and quickly erased the deficit to lead but a calamitous defensive turnover gifted Kilkenny a 53rd-minute goal and their opponents fought furiously to keep their noses in front, Eoin Murphy saving spectacularly from Peter Duggan to prevent extra-time.
What has changed and what remains the same?
Clare were beaten in a third successive Munster final by Limerick last month, and far more convincingly than in 2022 or ’23.
They are still prone to defensive spontaneous combustion. In the group stage, they were nine points up against Limerick until conceding what Lohan called "three shocking goals" and Eibhear Quilligan was too easily beaten for a green flag in both encounters against the champions.
TWO GOALS FOR LIMERICK!
— The Sunday Game (@TheSundayGame) April 21, 2024
What a turnaround as the All-Ireland champions score two in as many minutes
📱Live updates https://t.co/YgCyiCIAIZ
📺Watch on @rte2 and @RTEplayer https://t.co/ZfZ9mA9XTY
📻Commentary on @RTERadio1 pic.twitter.com/9ON9ztZtHl
Conlon is fit this time but showed a worrying desire to carry the ball into contact in the Munster decider that Kilkenny will have noted.
Clare showed mental strength in winning their remaining three games against Cork, Waterford and Tipperary and then easing past 14-man Wexford after a brief, penalty-induced scare. But the feeling that 'this is their year' has waned somewhat and today is the ultimate test of whether their confidence has been fatally deflated by the green monsters.
Aidan McCarthy’s free-taking went awry in the provincial decider and Mark Rodgers took over as the former was dropped for the quarter-final win over Wexford, though he returns today. Who will be on the placed balls? We know it will be TJ for Kilkenny and he will be 8 or 9/10 on a bad day.
Only Shane O'Donnell has been consistently excellent of Clare’s midfield/forwards but Tony Kelly now has two starts under his belt and hit 0-05 (no frees) against the Yellow Bellies. Can he escape Mikey Butler's shadow this time having managed just one score from play in the last two meetings?
Ryan Taylor also makes the bench for the first time since damaging his cruciate in this fixture last year but it would be a surprise to see him thrown in unless things are getting desperate.
The less cut-throat nature of the Leinster round-robin allows Kilkenny time to hit their stride. Drawing against Galway and (especially) Carlow would hardly have been part of the plan but they were missing key men Eoin Cody and Adrian Mullen for those games.
Cody plundered a late goal for a slightly fortuitous win over the Dubs and then, tellingly, they held Wexford off in a final-round encounter that mattered much more to their opponents.
The subsequent Leinster final was a supreme statement of intent as Dublin were smashed by 16 points for Kilkenny's fifth provincial crown in succession. Mullen hit 0-07 from play as John Donnelly (0-18 in six games) and Martin Keoghan (0-16) continued to offer scoring support to the main goal threats of TJ and Cody, who will test Adam Hogan today. Mikey Carey has recovered from an injury that forced him off that against the Dubs.
Captain Paddy Deegan said afterwards that he felt his side had been "disrespected" by the suggestion that a Dublin team they had only beaten by two points three weeks before might have a chance.
Kilkenny's recent ability to detect even non-existent slights (see Ballyhale v Ballygunner, 2022) is as impressive as it is bewildering but if it sharpens the appetite for battle then Derek Lyng has his pick of 'Clare are Limerick’s biggest threat’ opinions to pin to the dressing room interactive whiteboard. Though it slightly spoils things that this year, for the first time in three, they are slight but deserving favourites.
In a week when Davy Fitzgerald and Henry Shefflin both moved on, it’s hard to imagine Lohan wanting more if Clare don't at least make an All-Ireland final in what is his fifth year.
Winning the league decider in Thurles should have banished some of the psychological ghosts of the last two years but it’s up to his players to finally deliver on their potential at Croke Park, where Clare haven't won since lifting Liam MacCarthy in 2013.
A Kilkenny side who have consistently shown cool heads for the big stage will be heading to the All-Ireland final for a third year in a row if they can't.
Kilkenny: Eoin Murphy; Mikey Butler, Huw Lawlor, Tommy Walsh; David Blanchfield, Richie Reid, Mikey Carey; Cian Kenny, Paddy Deegan; Adrian Mullen, TJ Reid, John Donnelly; Martin Keoghan, Billy Ryan, Eoin Cody.
Subs: Aidan Tallis, Conor Delaney, Shane Murphy, Jordan Molloy, Cillian Buckley, Conor Fogarty, Tom Phelan, Walter Walsh, Owen Wall, Conor Heary, Gearoid Dunne.
Clare: Eibhear Quilligan; Adam Hogan, Conor Cleary, Conor Leen; Diarmuid Ryan, John Conlon, David McInerney; David Fitzgerald, Cathal Malone; Tony Kelly, Mark Rodgers, Peter Duggan; Aidan McCarthy, Shane O'Donnell, David Reidy.
Subs: Cian Broderick, Rory Hayes, Paul Flanagan, Cian Galvin, Darragh Lohan, Ryan Taylor, Ian Galvin, Aron Shanagher, Shane Meehan, Keith Smyth, Seán Rynne.
Watch the All-Ireland Hurling Championship semi-finals, Kilkenny v Clare (3pm on Saturday on RTÉ One) and Limerick v Cork (4pm on Sunday on RTÉ2). Both games available on RTÉ Player. Follow a live blog on rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app and listen to commentary on RTÉ Radio 1
