The drop in Diarmaid Byrne's free-taking accuracy from 88% to 38% since last year's All-Ireland final leaves Limerick much more vulnerable if this afternoon's game goes to the wire.
Over the years John Kiely's team have mastered how to edge tight contests, yet so far in the 2024 championship the only Limerick match decided by two points or less was their defeat to Cork.
Whereas in their 2023 Munster campaign, all of their games were that close. In that loss to Cork – who Limerick face again in today's All-Ireland semi-final - the usually dead-eye Byrnes scored just two of his six frees as his team were edged by two points.
In contrast, the Patrickswell man top-scored in last year's decider against Kilkenny from right half back, converting seven of his eight frees as well as a monstrous effort from play. The reigning champions' expert long-distance marksman turned the screw on the Cats within a 16-minute period during which he took on six shots, all from beyond the 65m line, and scored them all.
Before that period, Limerick trailed by three. But after his last point they led by five heading into the final 15 minutes. During that stretch he alone outscored Kilkenny, 0-06 to 1-02, one of the all-time great half-backs leading the way as his team completed four in a row and set-up this summer's bid for an historic fifth.
Fast forward almost 12 months and the 2022 Hurler of the Year and four-time All-Star has been a shadow of the player who has so often been the Treaty County's difference maker with his long-range finishing.
Against Cork in round three of the Munster round-robin, Byrnes was in possession of the sliotar in open play on just one occasion.
Throughout the 2024 Hurling Championship he has taken on 31 shots, all from 60m or further out, and converted just 12 attempts which is well under half of those efforts.
However, given the distance he's shooting from in play, it's his free-taking which is of particular concern and he has raised a flag with just nine of 24 attempts across his team's five games so far in this championship.
Against Cork, Byrnes marked Seamus Harnedy who made up the left side of a half-forward line who continually dragged Limerick's half-back line out of position. The Cork number 12 finished the game with 1-02 scored from play, while he also assisted or was fouled for an additional 1-02.
All within 18 in-play involvements - Harnedy's entry point was usually under puckouts. Overall he contested six long puckouts, catching two of them and assisting a goal with one.
He also came in to snap up the breaks on four further occasions which led to his 1-02 and an assisted point.
This was reflective of Cork's game plan as they went long with 21 of their 37 puckouts, crucially winning 14 of them and plundering the majority of their decisive scores off this approach. Going long against Byrnes and Limerick was a surprising tactic, however within this Cork rotated their forwards, created overlaps and gambled on the breaks to completely unsettle the Limerick half-back line's zonal set up.
Ten of Cork's 21 long puckouts went to the left half-forward zone although the mayhem caused in the Limerick half-back line meant Harnedy and Byrnes rarely actually contested with one another.
Diarmaid Byrnes in action against Cork on 11 May
Harnedy only had Byrnes for company for four of his 10 puckout involvements, and aside from an off-the-ball foul which was converted, and winning a diagonal pass into him, Harnedy either attacked breaks while Byrnes was occupied by another jumper, floated into another zone or had been picked up by another Limerick defender trying to adapt to the rotation.
In the opening game of the Munster championship Byrnes missed three shots before under-hitting a free which went all the way into Eibhear Quilligan's net for a fortunate goal. This was followed by the Cork game referenced above.
Against Tipperary another mishit free resulted in a goal, albeit not for him this time. While he scored two frees from six shots against Tipperary before scoring one from play and one from a free to sandwich five misses against Waterford.
In total his overall shooting accuracy is 39% for the 2024 championship going into Limerick's first knockout game. Scoring three of seven shots from play equates to 43% while he has scored with 38% of his free taking opportunities.
The good news for Limerick however is Byrnes is regaining form. After failing to score from play in his first three games he slotted a point against Waterford and last time out against Clare in the Munster final he scored 0-02 from play. He also converted an improved three frees from six attempts. While on the puck-out front Clare lost all six of their long restarts which went beyond the Limerick '65.
Diarmaid Byrnes has been a vital cog in the Limerick machine
Byrnes' remarkable efficiency from distance, particularly when the stakes are highest, has been a key component of Limerick' winning machine over the years. Any undisciplined tackling is usually punished, as is dropping off to defensive zones too quickly. Limerick's number five picking teams off from afar is as common a sight as Aaron Gillane plucking a diagonal ball on the turn and burying a goal, or Gearóid Hegarty thundering down the wing and pointing on the charge.
Cork will no doubt re-apply a similar puckout strategy in Croke Park with Seamus Harnedy's form crucial to their chances, but even if all goes to plan for them again, Byrnes' long range shooting may well prove the difference and his graph is on the up.
Watch the All-Ireland Hurling Championship semi-finals, Kilkenny v Clare (3pm on Saturday on RTÉ One) and Limerick v Cork (4pm on Sunday on RTÉ2). Both games available on RTÉ Player. Follow a live blog on rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app and listen to commentary on RTÉ Radio 1
