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Final-quarter surge holds the key for Limerick

Breaking Limerick's final quarter surge will be key for Clare in the Munster Hurling final as the stats bear out the supremacy of John Kiely's side in that phase of the game, writes Eamon Donoghue.

The one team to match Limerick in the final quarter so far in the 2024 hurling championship were also the only side to beat them.

On their way to four All-Irelands and five Munster titles in a row, Limerick's much vaunted third-quarter surge has seen them blitz opponents after the half-time break and inflict irreversible damage.

However, this year it's in the final quarter when John Kiely's team have turned the screw. In reaching a sixth consecutive provincial final this afternoon Limerick have scored 5-27 from the 53rd minute onwards, which is 35% of their championship total.

In comparison, just 17% of Limerick's scores have arrived in the opening quarter with them starting slowly in all of their games.

This rises to 21% from the 18th minute to half-time, while the traditional third-quarter surge has accounted for 27% or 2-27 of their total.

A further reflection of this is in their scoring aggregate breakdown and Limerick are minus nine points across the first quarter of their matches, rising to six points and then eight points for the third-quarter. While in the final quarter Limerick are up by a staggering 21 points so far this championship.

The five-in-a-row chasing Treaty County turned the game on its head against Clare with 3-05, scored 1-05 against Tipp and finished off a resurgent Waterford to turn a three-point lead into a 10-point win. The only team to match them in this final quarter was Cork with both teams scoring 1-08. The Rebels then are also the only team to have beaten Limerick, finishing that encounter with 1-01.

Central to Limerick's finishing power has been their ruthless shooting efficiency. In the final quarter of their championship games thus far they have a 78% shooting accuracy. With one-third of their misses coming in the minutes following Peter Casey's season-ending injury against Tipperary before Kiely emptied his bench to get them back on track.

In contrast, the combined efficiency rate of their opposition in this period is 69%, boosted by Cork scoring nine of their 10 attempts to again match Limerick's rate on their way to victory (58% for the other three teams).

Limerick have also shot 52% more than their opposition in this quarter - 41 shots in contrast to 27. The reigning champions are not only much more clinical in front of the posts but they are also getting away far more shots.

Shooting efficiency has been a core tenet for this Limerick team

Shooting efficiency has been a core tenet for this Limerick team

Central to this is a similar efficiency in possession to create the chances. While other teams get caught up in the emotion Limerick's decision-making processes intensify, they become calmer the more the game heats up, exposing rushed tackles, keeping their shape, committing to the final pass and exploiting the space.

So far in the championship, 80% of Limerick's passes in the final quarter have been short or through the hand, and this rises to 88% when you include diagonal passes into their inside line. From play they've only sent in eight long passes in this time, losing five of them. Overall, they've maintained possession with 85% of their passes in this quarter.

Again Cork matched them with 77% of their passes being short, or a diagonal ball for their inside line to come on to. Whereas Clare went long with 12 of their 20 passes, as they went from eight points up to losing by three.


'Beating or even containing Limerick in the latter stages will mean reducing the impact of Hegarty and English in particular'

Another aspect of this final-quarter dominance has been the contribution of Limerick's finishers, with their substitutes scoring 1-13 off the bench so far this summer. The oppositions' subs have a combined 0-07 which is less than half. Of that total Adam English has scored 0-06, there's been 1-02 from Donnacha Ó Dálaigh and 0-03 from Shane O'Brien.

And 1-08 of it has arrived in the final quarter, with 0-06 in assists. The impressive English has 0-05 making him Limerick's top scorer from play in this period. Followed by Gearoid Hegarty with 0-04.

The big half forward is also top of the assists charts with 3-03. He has clearly been to the fore in the final quarter for Limerick - despite coming off against Tipperary meaning these stats were across only three matches.

Beating or even containing Limerick in the latter stages will mean reducing the impact of Hegarty and English in particular.

Adam English takes a shot under pressure from Cork's Robert Downey of Cork

Adam English takes a shot under pressure from Cork's Robert Downey of Cork

While Limerick's training and experience has made them close to emotionless with ball in hand at key moments, this doesn't deter them from bringing the fire out of possession. In the final quarter Limerick have won 77% of contests which were not puck-outs, and the combined turnover count is 11-5 in their favour.

That said, there are opportunities and areas to target with Limerick winning only 45% of all puckouts in the final quarter, while they've conceded 1-07 from frees/penalty.

It's all a massive contrast to the first quarter wherein Limerick have trailed in every game other than their 15-point win over Tipperary, although they only led by one point after the opening 18 minutes there.

As for their once dominant third quarter, against both Clare and Waterford, Limerick were outscored. Leaving the final quarter as the only one Limerick have not been beaten in.

So breaking that final quarter surge will be key for Clare, with the main determinant being decision-making. Something Limerick have a monopoly on when the stakes are highest.

Watch the Munster Hurling final, Limerick v Clare, on Sunday from 3.15pm on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player. Follow a live blog on rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app and listen to commentary on RTÉ Radio 1

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